Abandon All Hope You...

When the UN Security Council voted for the introduction of sanctions against Yugoslavia fifteen months ago, there were few who foresaw what awaited this country in the future. In our sulk against a world which was punishing us unjustly, even though we were not the only guilty ones, and by insisting that ``no one could touch us,'' precious time was lost, and no serious moves undertaken. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic spoke at the beginning of sanctions ``as a chance for restructuring our economy,'' practically declaring them civilization's driving wheel. Many months later in an announcement discontinuing legal proceedings against Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic, he mentioned sanctions which were ``killing our unborn children.''

Following this line of reasoning from the highest place, there was, at first, much greater concern over the fate of football players who couldn't play in European competitions, than over the fate of scientists who had been barred from all world data banks and computer networks, without the possibility of following world trends in science. Someone made a rough calculation at the time which showed that the scientist's loss was a greater disaster than if all of Belgrade's six bridges had been blown up at the same time. In the meantime, the total damages resulting from sanctions have probably reached a level which could only be compared with the destruction of several of Serbia's biggest towns. Demolished bridges can, unfortunately, serve only as a metaphor showing to what extent we have been cut off from the world.

Yugoslavia has also lost its membership (or it has been put on ice) in all international financial and trade institutions. Practically all bilateral agreements which had existed for decades are no longer valid. Economic experts claim that access to world finance sources, without which a speedy recovery of the economy is impossible, could take place in five or six years at the earliest, on condition that international recognition passes without hitches, something that doesn't look very probable right now. Sanctions forced many foreign firms to leave (usually to neighboring countries), taking with them businesses which had ensured work for hundreds of thousands of people here. Some will probably return one day, but then it will be on their terms. When leaving, the majority said that they were not coming back, because they couldn't wait for us to become a ``normal country'' again, i.e. one in which it was worth investing. Judging by everything, this will not be the case for a very long time.

Apart from the economy which faces a collapse thanks to many years of disastrous economic policies and sanctions, the damage done by the international blockade can best be seen in the health sector. Even before sanctions things were not going smoothly, and they only helped accelerate matters. Accusations that the world is cold bloodedly and cynically allowing us to die without medicine sometimes try to hide the fact that health institutions are not under sanctions and that money earmarked for medicine has been spent elsewhere.

Pediatrician Slobodan Kostic who works in the Institute for Gynecology in Visegradska St., said that the death rate of newborn infants is at the level it was prior to sanctions and that a slight rise in numbers can be ascribed to the influx of refugees and genetic material they have brought with them. ``At the moment this part of the Institute functions and we have sufficient supplies for babies. However, no one can foresee how long this will last and for long we will be able to improvise,'' said Kostic.

The situation in other departments and clinics at the Institute is more or less the same as in the majority of Belgrade hospitals. There is not enough medicine, gauze, surgical material, surgical gloves, hygiene products, and the food is abominable. ``If we were to collect all the medicine and medical material found in Belgrade hospitals, we wouldn't be able to put together one decent hospital'' said President of the Democratic party's Health Board Milena Jaukovic. Statistics show that the number of miscarriages has increased greatly lately because of the shortage of hormone preparations for the maintaining of pregnancies. The number of abortions has also gone up. There is one abortion for every three births, which is a pretty high percentage. This percentage does not include women who can't pay an abortion and have it done illegally. Abortions costs around four billion dinars, while the minimal costs for a newborn stand around 1,000 Deutsche Marks.

``The direct consequences of the current situation, such as the shortage of medicine and the general situation in our hospitals are not difficult to recognize,'' said Ruben Han of the Institute for Nuclear Medicine talking to VREME. ``From the point of view of the future, we should be more worried by what awaits us in a few years. Wise health authorities should at least point them out.''

Han says that until recently, our vaccination system followed world standards. However, this system no longer functions and the vaccination of children is being carried out partially, or not at all. If, in the future, we have an epidemic of some disease which has been forgotten, we will have unprotected generations. The consequences could be catastrophic, and that it why it is not such a good idea to rely on the logic that ``it won't happen to us.'' Tuberculosis was considered eradicated, but it is showing up. Our babies are not receiving BCG vaccines regularly. Very soon we will have a situation where illnesses and disease will manifest themselves as the result of poverty and bad nutrition. There will be an increased number of heart diseases and those linked to blood vessels. Han adds that apart from prevention, the situation concerning diagnostic procedures is also deteriorating. Over 90% of the basic bio chemical analyses are no longer being carried out, which means that the timely discovery of an illnesses will lag, thus putting off the start of treatment. For many patients time lost in receiving a diagnosis will be lethal. Today, treatment has become very complicated because of the shortage of adequate medicine. Chronic patients who have to put aside ten odd billion dinars every month for medicine only, are hit hardest.

A postcard from Johannesburg lies on Han's table, signed by several of his former students. They say that they have managed to find jobs and are sending their addresses, so as to stay in touch. ``In the last few months, I have received similar postcards and letters. No one is taking the threat of this exodus very seriously, and I'm afraid that too many have left this country in a very short period, and not only from the medical branch. I have another 18 years before retirement, but I don't think that I'll ever be able to make up for the fact that this is the second year that I'm not able to follow achievements in my line of work. What can I say about my two assistants they have just entered the world of science and any clinic in the world would be proud to have them. But now they are practically cut off from the world.''

Jelena Pejic who is an assistant at the department for international law at Belgrade's Law Faculty, said that the economic effects of sanctions depend on their comprehensiveness, the readiness of the international community to implement them and the economic strength of the country against which they have been introduced. In our case, we have the worst possible combination of factors, so that when all this passes one day, it will be difficult to compare the damages suffered by the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia because of sanctions, with those undergone by other countries which suffered a similar fate. Sanctions against Yugoslavia, as the ``institutionally expressed anger'' of the international community with regard to a certain policy, are the most comprehensive so far, in the experience of the United Nations. To use a basketball term, the UN have adopted a tactic of playing total pressing against us.

``The political goal of the sanctions is to force a change of behavior by the authorities, but the effects are rather problematic,'' said Jelena Pejic. ``Experience has shown that sanctions, as a rule, strengthen national solidarity, because of the collective character of the punishment. If the regime has a well developed propaganda, then it enforces its view of the reasons for the sanctions. This invariably leads to a hatred of strangers and xenophobia. That is why this wave of xenophobia here is no precedent. The talk here is about a world conspiracy and all those who think differently are regarded as traitors.''

Pejic points out to the belief which has spread lately, and according to which the lifting of sanctions will mean an immediate return to the way things were before. In our case, we will not live to see sanctions lifted at the suggestion of the UN Secretary General, as happened with Haiti last week. It is more likely that sanctions will be lifted gradually and tacitly. It is difficult to foresee how long this could take.

Many participants in a recent survey conducted by the Belgrade daily ``Borba'' on: ``the authorities, the opposition and the great powers,'' claim that the introduction of sanctions destroyed any chance the opposition had of changing things including the setting up of a democracy. Kosta Cavoski claims that sanctions were not introduced with the idea of punishing the regime, but the state as the political community of a people. Cavoski claims that sanctions are not a threat to Milosevic, even if dissatisfaction should grow in the long run. The war around our borders has lowered the Serbian people's threshold of endurance, and the people are prepared to suffer, because anything is better than the war raging in Bosnia Herzegovina. Zoran Obrenovic, a researcher with the Institute of Philosophy and Social Theory, believes that sanctions can bring about a disintegration of the country, but not a process of democratic enlightment. The greatest losers are those democratic forces which had been helped by the West. This ``help'' said Obrenovic, only led to the radicalization of political emotions, and forces which had declared themselves patriotic, were the ones to profit. United States vice presidential assistant Leon Fuert, denied on a Worldnet program, that UN sanctions had ambitions of aiding democratic processes. Their only goal was to increase the costs of the what the rest of the world regards as acts of aggression.

Professor of Social Psychology at the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade Bora Kuzmanovic, believes that sanctions, apart from homogenizing the people, have completely repressed the people's ability to realize that it was not the international community which has pushed us into our present suffering, but that it just speeded up a process started long ago by the authorities. Our economy would have found itself in its present situation without the help of sanctions, it is just that the process would be slower, said Kuzmanovic. It was possible to see this before sanctions, but then propaganda misted up all reality and directed dissatisfaction towards the outside factor. This is the only explanation for that the fact that there were some signs of economic protest when our standard started dropping from 2,000 DM to 1,800 DM. Now that we have reached rock bottom, apathy and the logic that the authorities should be left alone for the duration of sanctions, have prevailed. Even those who have a better understanding of what is happening, and how it all started, think that it is better to remain quiet, now, ``when all hate us.''

``This is the only explanation for the fact that such a high degree of frustration has not led to rebellion,'' said Kuzmanovic. ``The widespread feeling of helplessness should not be underestimated, or fear of a strong police apparatus, the only ones to have strengthened at a time when everything in the country has gone to the dogs.''

Along with various forms of social pathology which have surfaced thanks to war and sanctions, Kuzmanovic underscores the appearance of xenophobia. He claims that this environment had traditionally been very open to the world, but that recent research, showing a completely changed situation with regard to xenophobia, should make us stop and think.

Kuzmanovic believes that political damages resulting from sanctions are inestimable. ``Only Milosevic's regime can reap any real political profit from sanctions,'' said Kuzmanovic, ``that is why I don't understand the behavior of the West, unless, of course, the matter concerns something contrary to what is being said publicly. Perhaps they find this regime convenient because it gives them an alibi justifying any strong measures they might adopt. Or perhaps they have found an adequate partner who they believe will be able to influence developments, and who is also prepared to be influenced by pressure and blackmail. At any rate, sanctions have served the regime to hide all its mistakes. If they start easing sanctions, Milosevic will know how to make political profit out of such a situation. We will be told that the world has finally understood our ideas and goals, and that the time has passed when we had to suffer for national interests, that we have achieved what we set out to do, and that life goes on. Many will believe this, even though it will only be a prolongation of the agony.''

Such a political epilogue to sanctions, could, according to Kuzmanovic, force the opposition to take a good look at its strategy for the future, in order that it might not lose what it already has. It is necessary to judge each step carefully in order that some false moves might not help the eventual Fascistization of society, but again, there must not be too much vacillating. Kuzmanovic does not have much faith in the theory that the most difficult period for the authorities will come when sanctions are lifted and when a period of sobering up begins.

``I think that propaganda will play an important role. Before the war we used to compare ourselves to more developed countries, after the war they will offer us a different parameter for comparison. They will say, for example, that life is much better than it was during the war and under sanctions. The people have proved themselves to be very adaptable. The end of sanctions will not mean the beginning of a sobering up,'' said Kuzmanovic.

What to do in such a situation to pack up and leave for Johannesburg or Toronto, as some 300,000 people have already done, or wait a decade or two before life here returns to normal? Ruben Han says: ``It is difficult to find the right answer. If I were a part of the authorities, at least those involved in health, I know what I'd do. I would rush around the world, go down on my knees and literally beg those who can help, to do so. Stories of a `celestial people' and lessons in `dignity' are a lot of hot air. The situation is such, that if need be, I would beg very humbly for help. Because, if things continue this way, there will be no salvation, and we are going to die.''