A Horrible Victory

Even though it had been dramatically announced as the last chance for peace in Bosnia Herzegovina, the agreement in Geneva was not signed. As soon as this happened, those who had been announcing the continuation and escalation of war if the agreement were not signed on precisely such and such a day, suddenly fell silent. All official versions now say that the fact that the three sides have not signed, is not the end of the world, and that they will sign the agreement in a few days. The official versions of developments are probably right this time. It remains to be seen what will happen after the signing, because there have been a lot of agreements so far.

But, first it must be seen why the Moslems have not signed, and what it is that they expect to gain, when all agree that they have lost the war.

The Moslems have lost the war, not only in the sense of suffering, but in every sense of the word. It is worthwhile to remember that according to Jose Cutilliero's practically forgotten plan for Bosnia, Mostar was supposed to belong to the Moslems. An honorable defeat is possible, or at least an honorable way out of defeat, just as there is shame. Bosnian Moslem leader Alija Izetbegovic's putting off of the signing was aimed at securing an honorable defeat for the Moslems. It is expected that thanks to pressure from the United States, Izetbegovic will win some territorial concessions, and that he will then be able to say that he had agreed to the partitioning of Bosnia Herzegovina in order to save his people, and that the Moslems' small state will have the minimal conditions for political and economic survival. The West, which has tricked the Moslems, can then proclaim them the war's most tragic victims, and by giving then international legitimacy, hush up accounts of its behavior by claiming that it was they (the West) who had ensured an honorable way out of defeat for the Moslems.

If anyone should ask why ``an honorable way out'' is suddenly a sufficiently good solution for removing the suffering of the people which, thanks to an appropriate propaganda, served to horrify the world for months, they will have to take a closer look at the West's inglorious involvement in the former Yugoslavia. It all started with a series of mistakes, both tactical and strategic, including playing on the Moslem ticket. Both the United States and Europe can only admit their own defeats. The dream of a united Europe, something which had been considered a nearly achieved reality after the fall of the Berlin Wall, has remained just a dream. Rivalry between the United States and Europe has deepened and both leave the war with a negative balance. But, this is their problem. Our problem lies in the fact that on becoming involved in the Yugoslav crisis, and especially in the Bosnian problem, they kept spouting about justice, humanity, human rights, a refusal to tolerate aggression, while at the same time tolerating the most horrible violations of these same principles. It is an irony of this war that from the point of view of the West, the entire Cold War which had been conducted in the name of humanity and human rights, and the so called triumph of these standards should have met such an epilogue in the middle of Europe, at the end of the Cold War. This can now be explained by the fact that all those involved were rooting for their side, that they were willing to be involved but with the least possible costs. These reasons, however, do not mean much to the inhabitants of Bosnia Herzegovina.

When the Geneva agreement is signed one of these days, patriotic self congratulatory triumphs in official Serbia will probably be unbearable. This triumphal wave is already strangling the half throttled citizens of Serbia who have always been peacemakers as confirmed in Geneva, who have won a military victory as seen from the maps. This kind of combination has rarely been achieved, but then, Milosevic, isn't just anybody.

For those citizens who do not belong among war profiteers, smugglers and other satellites of the authorities, the dilemma remains as to what defeat would have been like, if this what victory brings us. If the dead, wounded, refugees, captives and poor in Serbia are counted, then there do not seem to be many who have any reason to feel victorious. Milosevic will probably take care of them all, just as he has done so far. He and his subordinates will tell the world that it has finally understood that there had

never been any reason for sanctions, and that the best thing to do would be to lift them as soon as possible, preferably in a few day's time. The world, however, will not do so. First of all, such things are never done overnight, and secondly, by recognizing the factual situation in Bosnia, the world hasn't abandoned the idea of punishing Serbia. Thirdly, it is very convenient to have sanctions, like the sword of Damocles, hanging over the head of one of the sides involved in reaching a decision on the real implementation of the Bosnian peace plan. If the West has not been concerned over the inefficiency of sanctions, or the fact that they were affecting only the ordinary people, preventing the imports of medicine and food, but allowing the flow of crude to the battlefields; or the fact that Milosevic's pacemaking efforts are not the result of sanctions, then there is no reason why the West should suddenly show any interest in them at all.

The Croats, as has been obvious for some time, have the greatest reason for being satisfied. Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, wearing his pigeon of peace smile, is no better than Milosevic, but he is not a thorn in the eye. Tudjman has his little state, his bit of Bosnia Herzegovina, and he can boast of his constructiveness at the negotiations in Geneva, compared to, shall we say, Alija Izetbegovic. All in all, Tudjman seems to have fared best at the ball. Milosevic helped him discover his bloodthirstiness and territorial aspirations. And, compared to Milosevic, no one can look that bad. Now the Moslem leader is helping him. Tudjman pointed a victorious finger at Izetbegovic, marking him as the man guilty for the failure of the Geneva negotiations. There was no need for Milosevic to do this he magnanimously left it to the Moslem people to judge their leaders' results. This detail gives the clue to the currently biggest conflict. Short of embracing and kissing, Milosevic and Tudjman are underscoring their mutual constructiveness. It would seem that Milosevic now has more problems with Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, than he does with Izetbegovic, while Izetbegovic and Tudjman are fighting, and so on and on.

A change of allies is one of the basic characteristics of this war, which more than anything else, makes a mockery of all stories about principles and the war's liberating character.

Mostar has come to symbolize this aspect of the war. Its fundamental destruction was started by the Yugoslav People's Army (JNA), headed by the present Chief of the General Staff of the Yugoslav Army Momcilo Perisic. It was then concluded that Mostar wasn't all that important after all, and the JNA left peacefully after the deadline for its withdrawal from Bosnia Herzegovina was set. The Croats continued where the JNA had left off. The Croats weren't bothered much by the wholesale destruction of a town they had proclaimed as the capital of Herzeg Bosnia, just as the Serbs had not been much affected when they destroyed Vukovar which they had previously declared the capital of the Republic of Serb Krajina. Somebody will probably be able to explain all this sadomasochism one day. The success of the West's entire involvement, can best be seen in Mostar. So much so, in fact, that Fred Eckhard, the spokesman for co chairmen Vance and Owen, told journalists while taking them from one shelter to another, that a ceasefire would take place in Mostar, ``in spite'' of the Geneva negotiations. Human suffering in Mostar has surpassed all rational comprehension.

When they finally get together, will the signatories of the Geneva document direct the process towards peace and prosperity?

With difficulty, and not at once. According to widespread belief, the war will come to an end soon. It will stop because the warring sides have exhausted their potentials and because the West has lost all patience and has agreed to the partitioning of Bosnia Herzegovina, which it had opposed sincerely, and not because the signatories are men who keep their word. A British officer with the UN forces told the ``Herald Tribune'' a few days ago, that the warring sides had signed all sorts of agreements, but that in the meantime the troops had been regrouped, the weapons made ready and new targets determined. Battles will probably still be fought, but there won't be any large sale war anymore. And this is where the question crops up on how the new state as it has been set down on the maps will function, because the way it has been set down makes it impossible to function. But, this, as everything else, will be controlled by those who can destroy it. The problem lies in the fact that after all that has happened, there are many who can do so.