Wide Awake Monitors

It had to happen. Every morning for 15 months there was a kilometer-long column of trucks on both sides of the Serbian-Macedonian border. The drivers waited for night to come and the moment when the international monitors charged with overseeing the implementation of sanctions against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia would go to bed. Then, usually around midnight, the trucks and goods would surge across the border with forged papers and the stamps of non-existing firms registered somewhere in the former Bosnia-Herzegovina.

The violation of sanctions on this border was a public secret. It was spoken of publicly in Belgrade, usually accompanied with the words: ``Thank God, they haven't cut it off.'' Macedonia made money out of the whole situation, but not enough to cover what was being lost because of sanctions, while the international monitors didn't go further other than conclude that this was the ``most problematic'' border, and they didn't change their sleeping schedules. That is probably how the belief arose that the Serbian-Macedonian border was as riddled with holes as Emmenthal cheese, and that a tacit agreement had been reached that Belgrade (and Skopje) should be left with a loophole allowing the people to survive. Occasional warnings, such as the one issued recently by the State Department, that Macedonia and Greece, although fiercely at loggerheads, were jointly violating the sanctions and that something should be done, were not taken seriously by anybody.

This is why information that Macedonia had decided to seal off its northern border was received in Belgrade first with disbelief and then anger. It was believed that the joint interests in violating sanctions would last forever. Not long ago Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov said in an interview: ``Of all of Serbia's neighbors, Macedonia is hardest hit by sanctions, because we do not have an outlet to the sea, we don't have good alternative roads and we don't have a railroad. For us the north-south route is very important. If it is closed towards the north, that means towards Europe and Serbia with which our economy was closely connected, then the consequences are very difficult. There is no doubt about this. Therefore, this has economic, social and other consequences.''

Belgrade knew all about this. Last summer a top Macedonian official said openly in Washington that Macedonia would not be able to observe sanctions completely and quoted annual losses totalling 1.3 billion US dollars, which in the event that sanctions should last, could multiply. The belief that the border will continue to be rather porous was upheld by statements made by some opposition leaders who recently visited Macedonia and met with representatives of the authorities there.

On returning from Greece, Serbian Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic stopped over in Skopje. All he got from his Macedonian counterpart Branko Crvenkovski was that ``Macedonia, as a member of the United Nations had to observe the sanctions, and was thus losing more than Serbia.'' The state media in Belgrade were up in arms again, this time over ``Macedonia's treachery.'' The media uproar had the added task of pushing into the background the fact that at the same time, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia had sealed off the Serbian-Montenegrin border, according to some tacit sanctions which did not come under Security Council Resolution 820, and were not greatly at harmony with constitutional decrees on a single Yugoslav market.

Compared to Belgrade, which was at first stunned with disbelief, and then reacted angrily, Skopje showed a visible lack of enthusiasm in commenting the blocking of the border with Serbia, and left the business to suddenly zealous customs officers who were saying that ``Sanctions must be observed.''

The blockade of the border with Yugoslavia and its far reaching consequences led to a less festive marking of the second anniversary of Independence (September 8) than is the case with young states. In fact, there was greater interest in what is yet to come. An article ``Losses and long term consequences'' carried recently by the daily ``Nova Makedonija,'' cautioned that Macedonia's economy was on the brink of disaster and that the greatest responsibility for this lay with the sanctions against Yugoslavia. The article went on to say that Macedonia will be hard put over the next few years to find an alternative to the economic cooperation enjoyed with Serbia for decades. If a consistent sealing off of borders against Yugoslavia continues, ``Nova Makedonija's'' analysts believe that ``a definite collapse and bankruptcy of the national economy will take place.'' This is substantiated with forecasts according to which Macedonia will suffer losses because of sanctions amounting to 1.8 billion dollars by the end of the year. This figure was reached by taking into account that so far Macedonia had sold goods valued at 1.4 billion dollars annually in Serbia, that 80% of Macedonia's production had travelled via Serbia, and that in return, Serbia had supplied Macedonia with goods and products totalling 900 million dollars. ``Nova Makedonija'' underscores that sanctions and the total blockade which has just started will leave Macedonia's electrical-supply system without an alternative, as it is dependent on Serbia. There is a similar situation with raw materials used in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy. It is believed that ``Jugohrom'' of Jegunovci, ``Fenimak'' of Kavadarci and Skopje's ironworks will soon have to close down. Estimates show that by the end of this year metallurgy will have suffered 900 million dollars' losses, thus increasing transport costs in Macedonia by 207 million dollars, while 222 million dollars will be lost because of unrealized transport services. The loss of a traditional market puts estimated losses in agriculture at 180 million dollars. ``Nova Makedonija'' draws a line under all that awaits Macedonia's economy and expresses disbelief that the mechanisms of compensation will act with a speed which would bring Macedonia mountains of dollars in a very short time. ``No one has ever received such help,'' concludes the paper.

The majority of Macedonian businessmen are not prepared to comment the latest situation. When asked by VREME to give his opinion of the blockade, ``Ohis'' chemical industry director Jorgo Cuka appealed in Skopje to journalists to ``ease off a bit.'' Cuka believes that too much noise has been kicked up by both sides with regard to the blockade and that it would be better to keep quiet and work. ``The measures are clear,'' said Cuka somewhat inconclusively, ``and the economy's interests too, so it would be best if matters were to be resolved through regular channels.''

The ``Jugohrom'' metallurgical complex faces the possibility of being closed down because of the latest measure. Its deputy general director Dusko Djordjevski does not like talking about the subject. He agrees that the blockade will have catastrophic effects on his firm's links with Serbia, and that the price that ``Jugohrom'' will have to pay will be high. ``The one market where we sold a great part of our production and from which we obtained raw materials is being closed,'' said Djordjevski, ``and a second one has not been found. All this must now be done elsewhere and at a much higher price.''

Claims that the Macedonian government's decision to seal off its border with Serbia came at America's insistence, are not unfounded. Macedonia's foreign ministry denies that there was any kind of an ultimatum, and that the Sate Department's decision on opening offices in Skopje should not be linked directly to the implementation of sanctions. The United Sates did head the group of countries which called for a better control of the Serbian-Macedonian border, which was, at the time, one of the main reasons for the arrival of US troops to Macedonia. In the last few weeks apart from many foreign diplomats, Skopje was visitedby US congressmen, senators and Pentagon representatives. Macedonian media mention the possibility of Macedonia becoming a member of the North Atlantic Alliance Treaty (NATO) one day, while America's interests in the southern part of the formerYugoslavia can be illustrated by a joke. When asked ``What will the US do about Bosnia?'' US President Bill Clinton answered ``Go to Macedonia.''