All Against All

All in all, the long announced conflict between the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) and the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) seems to have started and is being followed with skepticism by the other opposition parties. Democratic Party (DS) leader Dragoljub Micunovic believes that SRS leader Vojislav Seselj is blackmailing the Socialists, and that he will withdraw if he gets what he wants (and what this might be is a mystery to Micunovic).

We have learned from sources close to Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic that he doesn't believe in the, as he put it, ``marriage'' between the Socialists and the Radicals and that is why he is saying publicly that he ``won't get involved.''

Seselj's suspicions lie in another direction and he accuses Micunovic and the DS of negotiating with the Socialists on the forming of a future government. Seselj believes that the other coalition partners would be the Democratic Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (DVZM) led by Andras Agoston and part of the SPO.

``We toppled former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic only after the third attempt,'' said Seselj talking to VREME, adding that the announced attack on Serbian Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic's cabinet in October should be regarded as a test. ``We'll try and see. The best thing for us would be a splitthe Socialists and all the rest on one side and we, the Radicals on the other.''

``If Seselj is trying to topple the government, then chaos will ensue,'' claims Micunovic, who believes that the ``Socialists have had it coming,'' since in the end, ``they must pay the bill for their alliance with the Radicals.''

What the Socialists still don't wish to talk about, but which could concern Seselj, can be summed up by the personality of Radmilo Bogdanovic. Bogdanovic has already made indirect announcements about ``profiteers'' among the Radicals, and according to sources close to VREME, it could happen that Bogdanovic, who is still the number one policeman in Serbia, could soon start by locking up such profiteers. The same sources claim that in that case, the ``Radicals' Sabac connection'' would be the first to go. The matter concerns the route to Bosnia via Sabac and Loznica and a certain Radical deputy who owns a transport company in Sabac. Thanks to the conflict between the SPS and the SRS, the puzzle is slowly being pieced together. An opposition leader who is probably well informed of the situation, confirmed the whole story: ``But of course! Where do you think Seselj found two million Deutsche Marks to start his own TV station?''

That is about all that the Socialists could frame on Seselj right now. He is threatening to topple the government and attack TV Serbia, which has ceased to pay much attention to him, and has started treating him like the other opposition party leadersnot carrying what he says, but carrying official comments on what he says.

It is assumed that the other opposition parties will support Seselj in toppling the government, but it still remains to be seen how things could develop. Namely, the opposition doesn't trust Seselj, and Seselj doesn't trust the opposition.

``If I were to put together a government, Micunovic with his five-six deputies would want as many ministers as I would have, while I don't want to have anything to do with Vuk,'' said Seselj. ``It's bad,'' said an anonymous opposition member, ``of two evils (Seselj and Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic), we have to choose the lesser one.''

These words herald another crazy scenario, according to which it could happen that at a decisive moment a part of the opposition might choose to back Milosevic, because, as we were told, ``in the broad sense of the word, he is insane, but does recognize some civilized norms,'' while ``the other (Seselj) does not and it would be pure fascism. He would be beating us in the streets.'' On the whole, certain fronts can be discerned, but not the outcome. According to one version, one of the fronts could be the one concerning Bosnia, with Milosevic pitted against Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and Bosnian Serb Army Commander Ratko Mladic, conservative church circles (Atanasije Jevtic), Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica, Crown Prince Aleksander Karadjordjevic and Seselj, topping them off.

On the other hand, with the support of a large part of the West, and spearheaded by Milan Panic and Vuk Draskovic and the Civic Alliance, another front could be formed, counteracting the right in Serbia and Milosevic.

Milosevic is lying low for the moment and seems intent on remaining dug in.