The Government In A Clinch

``I'll make them crawl and then let them organize a referendum on a state-legal status, by which time regardless of the outcome, they just won't exist anymore.'' This statement, allegedly made by Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic was leaked by one of his closest associates, and is being talked about among ``well informed'' circles in Podgorica these days. Some link the start of the crawling with Serbia's economic blockade of Montenegro. Some believe that the events in Banjaluka are a test for what could take place in Montenegro tomorrow.

It is expected that D Day will take place in autumn or at the beginning of the winter, because that is when the economic crisis and the desperation are expected to peak, the outlines of which can be discerned now. On the other hand, this period overlaps with the time when it is expected that the concept of a state of all Serbs will be rounded off. This part of the general story seems to have been dropped after the failure of the peace negotiations in Geneva. Had things taken a different turn, an offensive of supporters of a state of all Serbs had been expected in Montenegro, something opposed by official Montenegro.

The decisive move, or preparations for it, were made by the People's Party of Montenegro which issued a declaration on unification with the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) led by Vojislav Kostunica. Both parties announced that they would work jointly on the new constitution of the common state, which with the prior declaration of a discontinuity of Yugoslavia, would create the basis for the unification of all Serb states, and the creation of a big national state of the Serbian people in the Balkans.

The People's Party led by Novak Kilibarda launched a new offensive, fiercely criticizing Montenegro's diplomatic activities, urging for the dismissal of Foreign Minister Miodrag Lekic, and with increased accusations of separatism against the Montenegrin authorities.

Although officially always in dispute, they were supported in this by the Serbian Radical Party branch in Montenegro, in which their political opponents recognized a rather clumsy coalition aimed at protecting Serbian interests and at preserving the joint state.

The pro-Montenegrin parliamentary bloc has entered into a clinch with the ruling party, exerting pressure on it because of dissatisfaction over its involvement in protecting Montenegro's state interests, and that of its citizens. The Liberals took a little longer to make up their mind on withdrawing their ministers from the government. The Social Democratic Party will remain in the government, and they will accept an empty ministerial post, which they were offered by Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic with the help of television, on condition that they agree to the government's stipulations. ``We don't want ministerial posts in a state which is declining, but we do want to stop its downfall,'' said Srdjan Darmanovic, a top Social Democratic Party official. If they do leave, Djukanovic's cabinet will lose its multi-party character, even though the PM does not admit to any crisis in the executive body. Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic was absolutely unconvincing when he said that Milosevic had told him personally that the blockade of Montenegro was nothing more than a bureaucratic mistake. He sounded especially feeble when trying to explain the slowness in its removal. Developments between the Montenegrin and Serbian leaderships are still not clear, but the desperate efforts being made by the Montenegrin government at cushioning all attacks are highly visible. Small concessions to the pro-Montenegrin and pro-Serbian blocs are being made, thus helping retain the status of arbiter. It remains to be seen if the Montenegrin authorities will manage to deflect social protests, all the more so as the difficulties in obtaining food for the bare survival of the citizens will be much harder with the blockade in force. ``They look to the sky'' is the remark used most often when commenting the Montenegrin government's statement that it has secured 100,000 DM for the building of a divinity college in Cetinje, and with regard to its promise to finance the repair of places of worship throughout Montenegro.

The political situation in Montenegro is changing speedily. This is the result of the tourist season, the economic blockade and speculations concerning the intentions of the Serbian authorities and the federal state. There were clashes between information ministers, and according to competent circles, the SPS offered the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) the opportunity of drawing up the new federal constitution. Bulatovic recently said that he had learned of this initiative from the papers, adding at the same time, that something like that would not be possible without ``Montenegro's agreement.''

While the ruling DPS gives its unconditional support to the government, the Serbian bloc, with its frequent public appearances is persistently trying to lay the blame for the catastrophic situation in the country on the ruling party and the Montenegrin bloc. They consider Serbia's blockade of Montenegro justified, because, as they claim, the Montenegrin authorities are re-exporting food bought in Serbia. They also point to the growing ``separatism of Montenegrin leaders,'' and ``Montenegro's anti-constitutional diplomatic activities.''

The People's Party and the Radicals count on social disturbances, while the Liberals and the Social Democrats repeat incessantly that they do not want power won in the streets, fearing that Milosevic could use such disturbances to install a more pliant leadership in Podgorica. They always react stormily at the mention of the Foreign Ministry being dissolved, reminding Bulatovic of Montenegro's constitutional rights as a member of the federal state. Many thought that Montenegro would follow the Serbian assembly's move on the dissolving of the ministry, but the authorities and Bulatovic finally said that there was no need to do so, and that Montenegro faced lively diplomatic activities. This was confirmed immediately with Bulatovic's visit to Albania, and Djukanovic's stopover to visit his counterpart in Skopje (Macedonia), all which led to dissatisfaction in the Serbian bloc.

The Montenegrin government's policy is not to the liking of those who voted for it, while those who tried to topple it last year, are now ready to support it. The first want a new, better government, while the second fear that a euphoric change of government will leave them with a worse government, one which could start bloodshed in Montenegro. It remains to be seen if the first autumn session of Parliament which overlapped with the anniversary of the notorious October anti-bureaucratic events in Montenegro was just an accident. Analysts believe that at the time, a key step had been taken towards the dissolving of the former Federal Socialist Republic of Yugoslavia. The agenda of the session included the demand of the People's Party for a vote of confidence in the government. Government analysts have estimated that the government will win a vote of confidence, and if aid which has been bought long ago and is waiting in Italian ports, arrives, all the better.

All this aside, the influence of the ruling party is falling off. The government's latest secret survey, claim our sources, shows that the DPS enjoys the confidence of 29% of the citizens, the Liberals have 25%, the Radicals 16%, the People's Party led by Novak Kilibarda has dropped to 9%, while the Social Democrats have 10% of the voters. This information is disturbing to the upholders of the Serbian cause both in Podgorica and in Belgrade, so that it remains to be seen what line of action they will pursue in order to achieve their goals. It is generally believed in Montenegro that developments in the Serb 'krajinas', and especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina will be crucial. The Montenegrin authorities hope that aid and the international community will help out.