Wishful Thinking

As the nation was informed on September 15, Yugoslav President Zoran Lilic told a little known Paris weekly that he expected the lifting of the sanctions since ``Yugoslavia had fulfilled all conditions'' from the U.N. Resolution. His boss, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic was more cautious: two days earlier he had told the Vice President of the Foreign Affairs Board of the Japanese Parliament that ``there no longer were grounds for keeping the economic embargo,'' and explained his stand by saying that ``the Republic of Serbia supports a peace settlement in Bosnia-Herzegovina.'' There was a shower of similar optimistic statements made by officials.

The state propaganda is using the assurances that the end of Yugoslavia's ostracism is nearer by the day to encourage the people to stick it out a little longer as the international community ``is now convinced'' that the charges on Yugoslavia's account are ``groundless.'' In case sanctions are eased, government propagandists will use it as a proof that ``the truth about Serbia is out,'' while the foreboding opposition has once again shown its lack of patriotism by having no faith in such prospects.

In his interview with the Munich daily ``Die Suddeutsche Zeitung'' on September 14, Douglas Hurd, the British Foreign Secretary, articulated in what the international community is actually convinced, ``Why is Milosevic negotiating? Because of sanctions. We've managed to more or less cripple his economy...''

``A tightly squeezed ring'' (a tradition of executing a death sentence in Spain) has one major drawback. There is no necessary distinction between the regime and its subjects. However, judging by hints coming from American diplomatic circles, a peace agreement among Bosnian fighters, ``blessed and pressed'' from Belgrade, Zagreb and Washington, will lead to loosening of a vice in form of medical and humanitarian aid deliveries to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, but not to revoking of all restrictions. The West will thus at least partially satisfy its moral request to spare individuals in punished states, and also encourage a ``cooperative attitude'' of the Belgrade authorities.

Milan Komnenic, the Vice President of the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) who is in charge of international relations, and Zoran Djindjic, the head of the Democratic Party's group of MP's in the Serbian Parliament; assessed, in their statements to VREME, that complete lifting of sanctions against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia cannot be expected to take place in any foreseeable time, but only ``superficial'' easing. Both of them pointed out that an important part of sanctions will remain until the current authorities have been changed.

Komnenic fears that ``it might be too late now, so that we have to ready ourselves for having another 10 years of eking out a bare existence ahead of us and that it is now of utmost importance to prevent 'political radicalization' of the increasingly `resigned and apathetic' population.'' He also believes that passing a vote of no confidence in the Serbian and the Federal Government would be beneficial for lifting of sanctions as a proof that ``the process of democratization is in sight.'' According to him, a clear stand towards the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina is a must (``it ought to be said how much of the GNP ends up in B-H''), just as transcending a ``hard-line stand'' towards ``Bosnia, Krajina, Kosovo and Raska,'' it should be make known how ``huge police'' is financed, and ``the large military budget'' must be reduced since NATO and the E.C. ``cannot tolerate such oversized and powerful army in this region.'' ``The incompetent government has used sanctions as a convincing alibi for all social and economic catastrophes, while a part of the political oligarchy used them to get rich overnight,'' he concluded.

Djindjic announced that opposition parties would, ``in the name of democratic Serbia,'' soon send delegations to explain to the governments of France, Great Britain, Japan, China and other countries ``bad effects of sanctions and damage they have done to opponents of the regime.'' He expects that the transit through Yugoslavia will be allowed as a first sign of easing the sanctions after the Geneva agreement is signed and to show understanding for complaints by Bulgaria, Rumania and other neighboring countries. ``It is realistic to expect that some countries will continue to implement the sanctions individually,'' he predicted and pointed out that it would be most difficult to solve this problem with the U.S. adding that it is important that relations with the East are established.

One of Yugoslavia's leading experts at the international law, Ljubomir Acimovic, told the journalists last week, that everything would be slow and painful. He reminded that ``this country had consciously accepted the risk and the challenge of sanctions, confronting the CSCE, EC and the US, and simultaneously ``vilified'' the system of international relations, collective security and preservation of peace, the part of which are sanctions.'' He assessed that lifting of the embargo will begin when war is over and there is stable peace, when realization of the agreement begins and Serbia starts being constructive and cooperative.