The Price Of Pride

Radical Party of Serbia (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj confirmed at a press conference on Thursday, that SRS deputies would initiate proceedings for a vote of confidence in the Serbian government led by Nikola Sainovic on Monday, September 27. If we disregard for the moment party re-groupings and other political consequences from the government's eventual fall, and view the matter from the economic angle, the vital question is: will conditions be created for the normal conducting of an economic policy, or will the people continue to be driven crazy by having to choose among equals such as Sainovic, Serbian assembly Speaker and former PM Radoman Bozovic, former PM Nikola Zelenovic...

The current political scene differs from the previous prime ministerial changes, only inasmuch as the Radicals have accepted the stands of the other opposition parties, and the fact that Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic publicly turned his back on Sainovic last week. The most important and serious change is that Sainovic picked up very successfully where Bozovic had left off, so that the national economy has been thrown into the kind of chaos that even the greatest pessimists could not have envisaged.

Judging by a survey published last week by the daily ‘‘Borba,'' the people have started to think for themselves. Namely, nearly 80% of the polled believe that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic has not fulfilled election promises. This does not concern just gasoline, but everything else that cannot be found in the empty shops. Sanctions and the world conspiracy cannot explain away the emptying of shelves of all foodstuffs and goodsfrom bread and milk to clothes, footwear and other lasting goods. This is the result of the Socialist governments' activities. SPS spokesmen's statements that there is plenty of everything, but that the goods just have to get to the shops, are just tragi-comic.

Moves by Sainovic, Yugoslav Prime Minister Radoje Kontic and until yesterday, by Djukanovic, cannot be justified. Their understanding of the foreign currency market and putting some order into it, have tied the hands of businessmen. In all truth, it must be said that the decision on ways of using hard currency was annulled after some ten odd days. But, what serious government brings measures without first weighing the consequences. The price freeze during hyperinflation does not even bear talking about.

Two days after the announcement of the new package of measures, the Federal PM said that ‘‘hyperinflation had been severed''! He added that the government would allow justified price increases up to 100% per month only, while even secondary school pupils know that hyperinflation starts off with a monthly price increase of 40%. In the past few days Sainovic has been repeating the story about severing hyperinflation, while his government issues weekly ‘‘corrections in the disparity of prices'' and approves price increases of 500%, 600% and 800%.

Experts predict that inflation in September will reach 1,000%, so that a disinterested observer will come the conclusion that the economic chaos in the country is primarily the result of domestic policy, and that such an economic policy has not been forced by the United Nations' sanctions, and the sending of aid to Serbs outside Serbia. Seselj was absolutely right when he said on Wednesday that the state's money printing-works was the greatest generator of all irregularitiesfrom hyperinflation to shortages, from privileges to robberies. Only the very naive will believe that this is the National Bank's independent policy, i.e., that the country's leadership is not using this as another means of impoverishing the people and funnelling the last foreign currency reserves into private pockets.

Nothing has remained of the threats and political noise made in August: the goods are not reaching the shops, and the managers have not ended up in jail. The authorities made empty threats, and proved themselves incapable of carrying out their promise of general terror. However, all this is not of great comfort to the mass of crazed people trying to make ends meet, to find medicine, food, warm clothes for the cold flats...

In the meantime, the ministers are prolonging promised deadlines for the filling up of the shops. First they talked about ‘‘tomorrow,'' or ‘‘as of Monday,'' then ‘‘in a week's time'' so that the latest ministerial promise says that ‘‘everything will be in order in a month's time.'' For the time being the people are queuing up for: foreign currency savings, before private banks, for cigarettes and the government's packages which are not filled with the promised quantities of goods. Sainovic is trying to wash his hands of everything, claiming that the government has secured sufficient quantities of all the goods it had promised, and that it is not the government's fault that the goods are not reaching the shops. When it introduced the concept of an economy based on coupons, the government had also taken on the obligation of making sure that the flour reached every family, including everything else. There is no such thing as a partial totalitarian economy, i.e. one which serves the current needs of a Socialist government of salvation. A totalitarian government is what its name says, or it just isn't.

It remains to be seen what will change: the government or the policy. A real turnabout seems very far away. This was confirmed by an unofficial story from the National Bank of Yugoslavia, according to which the new governor visited a heart specialist after reading the names of the new members on the Governor's Board. The most worrisome name is that of Zlatan Perucic. Namely, this recently fledged banker is being viewed as a future National Bank Governor by those in authority.