What Next?

Everything is muddled here; at least that is what those who don't like the current situation will say. Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj continues to be the greatest problem of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and his ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS). Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic and Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica have quarrelled. Serbian Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic will now have to face Seselj, Democratic Party (DS) leader Dragoslav Micunovic and Kostunica, while Draskovic, Farmers' Party leader Dragan Veselinov and Civic Alliance leader Vesna Pesic are lobbying together all over the world for the lifting of sanctions. A mess. ‘‘Sainovic's government must be toppled,'' said Micunovic on Friday, finally resolving his and others doubts over the necessity of siding with the Radicals against the government in October.

Compared to Micunovic, who seems to have realized that it really doesn't matter who will be voting against the Socialist government, the SPO has once again jumped the gun.

‘‘We wish to be a bit secretive now. Who knows what will happen before the session and what decision we will reach,'' said a top SPO official in an attempt to justify his party's latest move. His statement showed that there were disagreements again within the SPO and that the decision against supporting Seselj was made by the party leadership.

‘‘This is a personal ideological war,'' said Kostunica to VREME, commenting the SPO's move. Kostunica has been accused these days of wishing to enter into a coalition with Seselj. ‘‘Lies,'' said Kostunica when asked about the matter. ‘‘Not to vote against a government which has left only a trail of dust and ashes behind it, is tantamount to signing a death sentence; like sticking one's head into the noose, and that is why the DSS's vote against Sainovic's government is a moral act, regardless of who launched the initiative.''

The SPO's move surprised Seselj who said that he hadn't expected it. Seselj underscored that the government's continuance in office would lead to greater social discontent, and expressed suspicions that such discontent would suit the Socialists and his enemies among the opposition.

‘‘We will not aggravate relations on the political scene, but if they force our hand, we won't remain indifferent,'' said a SPS official, talking to VREME. The official wished to remain anonymous, adding: ‘‘Their intentions are still not clear, the issue is dynamic and is developing. We're just observing matters for the time being, and we have all the answers, it just depends on what degree and moment will be chosen.''

No one has yet commented Seselj's suspicions, officially or unofficially. Various scenarios are in the game, even Seselj doesn't wish to believe in them publicly. The most interesting is the one according to which the Socialists could use the current misery and hunger to introduce a strong arm rule and to eliminate literally all political opponents. ‘‘First they shoot, and then say sorry. It just doesn't suit us,'' said SRS spokesmen talking to VREME.

Despite the opposition's suspicions about Seselj, he continues to show (in spite of what he is doing now, and even if he is pulling our legs) that he has a very good nose, and that most of the opposition don't.

It seems incredible that amidst all the queues, empty shelves and growing anger, Seselj was the first to call for the toppling of Sainovic's government, while the majority of the opposition chose to follow foreign policy matters. Whether or not Seselj succeeds, those people who are queuing up these days and cussing the authorities, will remember that it was Seselj who wished to change things, and it will be very difficult to persuade them that it is all just a lot of demagogy, or ‘‘political manoeuvering.''

The opposition seems to feel that sanctions will soon be lifted and they have dispersed all over the world, hoping that their current efforts will show dividends when sanctions are finally lifted.

This is wrong, for at least two reasons. First of all, sanctions weren't introduced because of the opposition, so that lifting them isn't their job. In fact, thanks to the enormous propaganda machine at his disposal, Milosevic will be able to take all the credit for their lifting, so that only naive optimists can hope to share a little of the glory.

But, no matter how all this may end, it is becoming clear that a part of the opposition has started behaving very pragmatically, and that is a good sign. This could help them solve their greatest problem so far: how to unite against Milosevic and his authority. The answer is: whenever necessary, with whoever has similar ideas, and out of interest. The sooner some opposition leaders start accepting this fact, the better for them all.

‘‘Sainovic's fall is the first move,'' said Kostunica, ‘‘and the next one a government of experts, something that the Socialist majority in Parliament might opt for, elections, or something else we will see after the first move has been made.''