Dirty Hands

``Be men, vote secretly!'' said Serbian Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic at Pale (Serb Republic in Bosnia-Herzegovina political center) where along with Greek Prime Minister Constantine Mitsotakis, former Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and Montenegrin President Momir Bulatovic he gave his all in persuading the unyielding Serbs to sign the Vance-Owen plan. It is not very likely that Sainovic will repeat this in the Serbian Assembly when a vote of confidence in his government is taken. A secret ballot is contrary to the nature of Socialist authority, especially the way that is understood here. There are signs that party whips have learned that the SPS leadership cannot count on the unconditional life-long loyalty of those who will vote on Sainovic.

When Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic developed from a nationalist to a democrat, the structure of his followers changed, which is logical. When after several years of war mongering (and directing it indirectly), Milosevic starts exchanging war mongering with peace, it can be expected that something similar will happen to him. As a man with a proven gift for remaining in the saddle of authority, there is no reason to risk being overconfident about one's deputies, regardless of all the warm, chosen words of support in telegrams sent by the base.

Understandably, the demand for a secret vote is even less in line with the political options of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and its leader Vojislav Seselj. Voivodas, especially self-proclaimed ones take what they think belongs to them, while the total obedience of the party members is taken for granted. SRS deputies have long been free of the dilemma of choosing between various options. That is why Seselj leaves the impression of a sad clown when he says dramatically that when the vote comes up, he will remind Sainovic of the advice he gave to the deputies at Pale. When the two of them are racing to see who will uphold better an elementary democratic procedure such as the secret ballot, both leave the impression of boys who have put on Daddy's suit, added a moustache and are imitating the grown ups talking politics.

The burlesque, however, has taken on a broader dimension. Seselj chides the SPS of having ``resorted to methods of political battle which are not suitable to a democratic political system.'' The SPS, on the other hand, has issued an announcement blackening Seselj as they never did Croatian President Franjo Tudjman, and they call him a primitive chauvinist. It's easy for Seselj to discover the advantages of the secret ballot when there is very little likelihood of it being implemented. If the possibility of a secret vote were to crop up, Seselj would probably change his mind, because, all bluffing aside, he knows that a conflict with Milosevic will lose him many supporters who liked to bask in the warmth of authority, and under whose powerful protection they can threaten, steal and kill unhindered.

There is a justified fear of deserters on both sides. Neither Milosevic nor Seselj think of facing them, or of accepting such political realigning as a normal part of political life, because something like that is only normal in a democratic world. Here neither one nor the other recognize the existence of a balance of strengths, and this is the most interesting part of the vote of confidence in Sainovic's government. Nikola Sainovic as such, is not in the least bit interesting, nor does anybody regard his survival, or that of his government as a crucial issue. The real balance of strengths between the Socialists and the Radicals in parliament, is not really one hundred percent clear to anyone, and even less so in the field. The matter pertains to a very interesting question, even though there must never be any illusion that there is a choice between two political options. Milosevic and Seselj have represented the same policy. The second was just more extremist than the first, but they worked in perfect harmony, helping each other out. Something however, happened. This conflict is in the best tradition of faction fighting, so characteristic of the communist movement. The whole showdown between the Socialists and the Radicals is based on the principles of a showdown with ``elements.'' Seselj proved himself once more a very good student of the communist school, when he realized that the shortest route to power leads from its vicinity. There is no doubt that he wants power, very much, and in accordance with this, he started many things. And now look at the way the Socialists are treating him.

There are several theories concerning who kicked who and why, and just as much speculation on who will be hurt most by the conflict, and who needs it. It is a fact that Seselj had grown powerful, but probably not enough to think that this was the time to go pulling the rug out from under the Socialists and Milosevic. On the other hand, Milosevic the newly-fledged peace-maker, has probably received signals from international negotiators that it would be wise to get rid of his extremists if he thinks of cashing in (politically and literally), in Geneva. It remains to be seen to what extent Milosevic will rid himself of them. With the end of the war he will be needing fewer people who are not adverse to blood and money to do his dirty business, even though there is a lot to clean up in Serbia. He might decide that they have served their purpose and pack them off to the International Court in the Hague. Milosevic is still the stronger one, and his moves are being followed by the world, while at home, he is the only one receiving telegrams of support.

Seselj is not without support either, both in Serbia and outside it. The Voivoda knows a lot and has seen much. He also has a horse in the race. It remains to be seen, however, if it will stumble or last the race.

All in all, Serbia has so far been ruled by a many-headed monster, one with Socialist and Radical heads, and many arms, all of which were armed. Now the citizens queuing up for bread and milk are watching to see which hand will cut another one off and how this mutilated monster will continue to live. Things would be clearer if Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde were at odds, but they aren't since both of the gentlemen here are negative. The Socialists are thinking of wiping their hands on someone else too, since, as SPS official Borisav Jovic explained, in the event that the government fails to come up with the sufficient number of votes, they will opt for ``a coalition or elections.'' He did not say who the coalition partner would be. They might even have a choice, because the Socialists' strongest opposition right now, is Vojislav Seselj.