Is There A Pilot In The Plane?

When Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) Minister of Culture Djoko Stojicic asked for understanding for Serbian Prime Minister Nikola Sainovic's government ``in order that the plane might not lose altitude,'' someone asked spontaneously: ``Is there a pilot in the plane?'' It would not be amiss to remember this film comedy, and especially the sentence: ``The shit hit the fan,'' which is a very apt description of the prevailing atmosphere during the five-day debate in the Serbian Assembly, which saw a clash between the SPS and the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) led by Vojislav Seselj. Accusations of alcoholism were made, relationships between deputies and their sons, sons-in-law and close relatives aired. There was a lot of patriotic thumping of bronchitic chests, and bragging of personal contributions in the current war.

The Radicals were more active, and kept repeating accusations against Sainovic's government taken over from the hateful democratic opposition, hour after hour. The Socialists did not try to unmask individual Radical members, and compared to TV's heavy artillery, were rather mild when accusing the Radicals of having been insincere partners and of compromising politics in Serbia.

Minister without Portfolio in the Serbian government and former assistant Interior Minister Mihalj Kertes (also responsible for the arming of Serbs outside Serbia) bragged publicly in the Assembly a second time that he had bugged the telephones of the Hungarian minority in Vojvodina party, the Democratic Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (DZVM), and knew who was cheating on whose wife. The Speaker tolerated the minister's speech even though he had broken the law (tapping phones without permission, the public disclosure of secret information and violation of the citizens' privacy). The Socialists did not show any discomfort over the fact that Kertes's bragging was putting the Yugoslav Ambassador to the United Nations in a very embarrassing situation, and that he would have to deny claims that Yugoslavia was carrying out a repressive policy against the Hungarian minority.

The Socialists did not try to document their two key accusations against Seselj, the one for war crimes and the other for war profiteering. After the insistence of SRS deputy group leader Tomislav Nikolic, a Socialist deputy muttered that there were suspicions of war crimes and that they would be investigated, but that those who made the accusations, had to prove them. SPS deputy group leader Zoran Andjelkovic specified that the part of the Socialist's announcement concerning war crimes, did not refer to the Radicals or volunteers, but to Seselj, and that the SPS would not pass judgement beforehand, but would insist on a pubic enquiry.

The Socialists allowed the Radicals to attack the regime. They let Nikolic have a lot of room in an attempt at bringing him out into the open as a reserve SRS leader.

There were certain indications that the whole game left space for reconciliation. The more moderate Serbian national bloc wondered whether to back Seselj against Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, or Milosevic against Seselj. Opposition activist Milan Protic is one of those who believes that Seselj is a lesser evil and that he should be used against Milosevic. Five years ago the opposition believed that they would manipulate and overthrow Milosevic himself. For the time being such speculations are groundless. The scandal culminated when Seselj called Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic ``a psychiatric case,'' while Draskovic replied with ``Fascist.''

Publicly, the opposite was said--the showdown between the Socialists and the Radicals is changing the political language and opening more space for a democratic life.

Milosevic, however, knows that the great wish for achieving the impossible, i.e., the unification of the opposition, and the complex of the eternal loser hungering for some kind of success, will push the so-called democratic opposition into Voivoda Seselj's embrace, and perhaps after this initiative even into his shadow, since a large part of the electorate votes according to its perception of who has power. Milosevic might rejoice over this, since this could take away the little of the pro-European and liberal image that the opposition has, giving Milosevic a chance of showing up at eventual negotiations with a European approach.

The democratic opposition leaders tried to avoid traps as best they knew how. Before leaving for England, Draskovic tried to ensure a neutral position for his party and let the Socialists and Radicals fight it out in peace, hopefully weakening one another. This resulted in confusion among the opposition, and grew into a quarrel between the SPO and the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), which threatened to overshadow the Assembly crisis. Draskovic made tactless remarks about DSS leader Vojislav Kostunica being in coalition with Seselj, while Kostunica replied that Draskovic was saving Sainovic's incompetent government. This situation gave rise to a clash between Democratic Party (DS) leader Dragoslav Micunovic and DS Executive Board President Zoran Djindjic over the party's leadership. Djindjic has the offensive and is saying that he wishes to swim faster than Micunovic. The Democratic deputy group in the Assembly sharply criticized the government and, at the same time, distanced itself from Seselj.

The quarrel has not brought anything new, all the more so as the outcome of the drama does not depend on the number of votes, but on Milosevic's decision when to call the next elections. When Milosevic and Sainovic received Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic on Thursday, October 14, and advised him to be generous towards the Moslems, Milosevic made it clear to his opponents that he needed the fight with Seselj, in order to show everyone that he was getting out of the war in Bosnia. The Radicals continue to pressure Milosevic into continuing with a war policy, and that is why he is pushing them away.

Vuk Draskovic, who until yesterday had been demonized for talking about the need for a reconciliation with the Moslems, must now feel some satisfaction at hearing Milosevic speak the same language.

Of course, Draskovic's demand for the setting up of a joint transitional government without Seselj, and with an opposition figure heading the cabinet, was turned down coldly by the Socialists. SPS spokesman Ivica Dacic said that the ``Socialists' stand concerning the SPO had not changed.'' The remaining opposition partners were ironical, and described the proposal as ``saving Sainovic,'' and ``getting closer to Milosevic,'' even payment for the act of abolitio, when Milosevic discontinued legal proceedings against Draskovic. This was rather nasty, all the more so, since if the act of abolitio were to be proclaimed a deal, a closer analysis could show that in opting for abolitio, Milosevic was, in fact, calling on Draskovic for help.

After the police beat up a woman standing in a queue for flour (Nadezda Bulatovic, an actress working in the ``Dusko Radovic'' theater) and she had the courage to show her bruises publicly and to accuse her attackers, the memory of the ``June events'' was awoken, and the Belgrade public protested against police repression. The SPO, whose leaders had been beaten up and in whose defence Belgrade had protested, had sufficient motives to make a political issue out of the event. SPO deputy Milan Mikovic later came to the Serbian Assembly in order to say: ``The Minister of Police and the government shouldn't be too cocksure and think that the Radicals can't topple the government. They perhaps can't, but DEPOS (the Democratic Movement of Serbia) can... The Minister of Police will fall alone or together with the PM and the government.''

A reply was ready. Interior Minister Zoran Sokolovic said: ``Gentlemen of the SPO I will not submit my resignation to you!'' PM Nikola Sainovic supported him. Ten hours later, however, Sokolovic apologized to Nadezda Bulatovic, but didn't resign. Between a faithful chief of police and a useless government, Milosevic chose the chief of police. After this the SPO had no other choice but to vote against the government and rid itself of complications.

If things turn out the way they looked on Friday at 7 p.m. when this number of VREME of goes to the printers, there will be a certain amount of triumph over the fact that an insignificant ``Red government'' has finally been toppled, by an Assembly no one cares much about. Seselj who is losing his present privileges could ascribe this success to himself. The SPO will naturally claim that they turned the tide and the DSS and the DS will also underline their roles. However, none of these groups are capable of making the next move.

Milosevic's next move was ready before the start of the debate in the Assembly. In the event that Sainovic's government fell, Milosevic would be calling elections soon in order to defuse some of the social tensions, and because the parties were not capable of putting together a new government. In the event that Sainovic did not fall, he would dissolve the Assembly because of the blocking of the Assembly's work, and in order to lay the blame for the country's woes on the opposition once again. The Socialists are entering the elections while there is still time, and while they are one step ahead of the others. Only they can fill up 17 hours of TV program with SPS-sponsored propaganda... There are rumors in the Assembly that elections will be called for spring, May at the latest. Rumors coming from the state apparatus say that elections have practically been scheduled and that only the President's signature is missing. If the President estimates that he doesn't need to introduce a state of emergency in order to control social dissatisfaction, then elections could be scheduled very soon, before his opponents realize what is happening, but after the elections in Russia. The Socialists are saying: ``The sooner the better!'' The opposition is unprepared for elections and are elaborating on the fact that Milosevic fears social disturbances, and that he hasn't weakened Seselj sufficiently, and that, in spite of the clash, he still avails himself of the latter's services.