Who Is Who

If Serbia is the first state to be created in the Balkans, then the Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK) is certainly the second runnerup. However, nobody recognizes her, not even Serbia. The international community treats this area as an UNPA zone, Croatia as an integral part of its territory, while the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) would like it best if Krajina was a part of the federation, unless forced to give it up.

Currently, the means of solving the status of Serbs in Croatia is by wearing out of the warring sides through a combination of diplomatic and cannon fire. There are several options: the Republic of Serb Krajina as a sovereign state, RSK within the United Serb States (a euphemism for Greater Serbia), a confederation with Croatia, joining of Eastern Slavonija to Serbia and leaving the rest of Krajina to Croatia under a set of conditions to Zagreb, and, finally, the Knin and Glina districts within the Republic of Croatia (the socalled special status).

The leaders in Krajina are settling their accounts once again. The main protagonists are Mile Martic, the Minister of Interior Affairs of RSK, and Goran Hadzic, the President of RSK. However, they are not the only interested parties, as they are joined by Milan Babic, the former leader of Krajina Serbs, until January 1992 when he was replaced by Hadzic, Mile Paspalj, the Speaker of the Serb Krajina Parliament, Mile Novakovic, the Commander of the RSK Army, and a few more. Not one of all possible combinations and coalitions among them is to be ruled out. It is assessed that this round of mutual settling of accounts is the most serious so far. There is a wide spread belief that something has got to be changed. All illusions have been shattered.

The only way is either to find `a person of authority' who will manage to convince Belgrade not to abandon Krajina not even at the cost of the total war with Croatia or a scapegoat for its breakdown. In this context, it is still uncertain whether the local elections in Krajina will be held at all, even though they have been scheduled for November 21. So, who is who in Krajina? The current President of RSK, Goran Hadzic, is considered to be a cat's paw of Slobodan Milosevic, the President of Serbia, but it is also believed that he is not doing his job properly.

There is a wide spread opinion among the members of the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) that at the time, immediately following the signing of the Vance plan, the position of Krajina Serbs regarding the acquisition of international recognition of their creation was much more favorable, than that of their brethren in Bosnia later on. However, Hadzic screwed up. He never managed to impose himself as an indisputable leader like Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader, did.

He failed to tame the local organs of authority, set up during the era of his predecessor and opponent, Milan Babic. Thus, Goran Hadzic contributed to overall anarchy. Although he had followed all relevant orders from Belgrade, Hadzic is objected a lack of initiative. And, finally, many tend to believe that he is still in office, just because it is impossible to find anybody else to replace him. His rating is extremely low, which makes him incomparable with any other politician on both sides of the Drina River.

He is accused of all kinds of things: war profiteering, living a luxurious life (holiday on Saint Stefan) while his fellowcountrymen are on the verge of hunger, that he no longer cares about Krajina since he settled down in Novi Sad, etc. The last to express their opinion about Hadzic were the peasants from Banija who blocked the road he took in order to attend the session of the Krajina Parliament held in the Plitvice Lake District. Their motto read: while the President is driving around, we don't even have fuel to reap the crop. The fact is that Hadzic could hardly be said to have any conception. It seemed at one point, after the action of the Croatian Army in the area of Maslenica, that Belgrade had lost the nerve and decided to let Hadzic go `down the drain'.

And then at the meeting of the Association of Serbs in Croatia and Radmilo Bogdanovic (March 1993) it was assessed that "most of things originate in the RSK authorities' incompetence, since the people launched to the surface are ignorant when it comes to the knowledge of the technology of power." Such stands were further enforced in reports of the Belgrade daily "Vecernje Novosti," and later broadcast on Radio Television Serbia, according to which Hadzic was involved in smuggling of oak wood.

But, the campaign against him was abandoned on time. Namely, it is assumed in Krajina, that Hadzic is being kept in reserve, so that one day when the moment comes he could declare the independence of Eastern Slavonija and its joining to Serbia. Hadzic confirms such speculations with his statements where he refers to Knin as "them," and to Erdut as "us." Interior Minister Milan Martic is the last remaining Krajina veteran whose power is real and tangible. He is most often described as indestructible.

Politically speaking, he has outlived all Prime Ministers and government reshuffles. He clashed and later made up with Babic, he was first against and then for the Vance plan, he supported Hadzic only to finally fall out with him. It was clear to him from the very beginning, that the key player in his state is the one who wields executive authority over the armed forces. His policemen, called "Martic's men" in Croatian media, were the main protagonists in all armed conflicts at the beginning of forming of Krajina. They were the ones to impose and enforce order later on. While Babic was in power, which is the time of Serb expansion, he had a free hand. When Hadzic replaced Babic, the Yugoslav People's Army pulled out and Krajina's armed units were demobilized, according to the Vance plane. However, the police force remained untouched.

Being the only armed force left, it grew in size, as Martic's prestige and competencies increased. Many believe that he inspired the obstruction Hadzic encountered when intending to act as President in Knin, so that the only thing Hadzic could do was to leave the capital of his state and let his Minister of Police do whatever he liked. After 22 January 1993, Hadzic seems to have decided that his time had come, so he tried to get Martic into line with help from Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan and his volunteers. However, Martic came out as a winner in the conflict which followed.

After a month's time on the Dalmatian front Arkan withdrew. A covert conflict between him and his Minister had been smoldering ever since only to come to a head at the session of the Krajina Parliament in Beli Manastir. Most of MP's agree that the debate was as indecent as it could get. Martic accused Hadzic of being a criminal, and the latter tried to replace him. Martic who has taken the role of Krajina's spokesman interpreted the open conflict between the two as unwillingness of Krajina to agree to any deals which Belgrade might strike with Zagreb through Hadzic. And the real power of the Knin current was demonstrated at the session in Plitvice when Martic easily survived the vote of no confidence, in spite of Hadzic's intent to oust him.

Milan Babic is most probably a unique political figure on the former Yugoslav territory when it comes to the influence he exerts in the region. Namely, he was asked about his opinion in all conflicts among the leaders in Krajina. In other words, he was asked about who directly or indirectly works for him. After any form of power in Krajina was skillfully denied to late Jovan Raskovic, the first leader of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), Babic became an ultimate master.

He fell only after he opposed Slobodan Milosevic, i.e. when he refused to sign the Vance plan. His reasons for doing so are still unclear. In any case, it is believed that Babic grew "hardheaded" when he assessed that the concept of "reduced Yugoslavia" was abandoned, which made the question of Krajina's reintegration into Croatia only a matter of time. The events which followed (the Croatian Army offensives, the resolutions of the U.N. Security Council, especially the Resolution 871) put him in a position to be able to assert with confidence, "You see, I was telling you even back then, and you wouldn't listen."

His present political rating is extremely high. Besides that, he learned a great deal about politics in the mean time. Rumors have it that he orchestrated the incidents of the Radicals against Hadzic, and spread the influence of the Serbian Radical Party in Krajina, but avoided exposing himself openly. On the same token, it is believed that the hard line attitude of Milan Martic is exclusively to his advantage. We could also mention that when Belgrade was considering sacrificing Hadzic, Mile Martic publicly advised Babic to apologize to Milosevic for all his sins. Babic refused and decided to wait. If the elections in Krajina are to take place, they will, all things considered, mean Babic's comeback in a grand style. In any case, the clue from Belgrade is decisive. Babic's comeback could provide a good excuse for leaving Krajina on its own, whatever it may mean, while, on the other hand, the Serbian war lobby could become more powerful. The situation will be much clearer after the early parliamentary elections in Serbia on December 19.

Those who follow the work of the Krajina Parliament point out Mile Paspalj's skillfulness in manipulating the MP's so that the legislative branch can by no means affect the work of the executive branch. The Speaker of the Krajina Parliament appeared in the political life at about the same time as Hadzic. Actually it was him who insisted on the parliamentary procedure, the will of the majority and neglecting of it, when it was necessary to break Babic at any cost. However, later on he tried to avoid offending either Belgrade or Knin. As a need called for it, he either supported the unification with the Bosnian Serb Republic (when Karadzic needed it), or insisted on the elections, but skillfully managed not to have them included in the parliamentary procedure. The Parliament under Paspalj has 270 MP's, and was created by joining of the Parliaments of the Serb Autonomous Regions of Eastern Slavonija, Western Slavonija and Krajina.

As a person from Baranja who is in the Krajina's power structure, which is a rare case, he does not enjoy an overwhelming support among his countrymen. Babic cannot forgive him for having partook in his ousting, and, additionally, Erdut and Baranja are not that close either. Whenever there were some regional conflicts under way, Kordun and Banija tended to rely more on the direct connection with Belgrade than on the representatives of their state, whoever they may have been. Therefore, the meeting of Slobodan Milosevic and Nikola Sainovic, the Serbian Prime Minister, with the presidents of the local communities, which took place in March, was not accidental. The meeting followed the initiative of the local leaders to launch a campaign against crime and war profiteering.

There are speculations that the Serbian leadership wanted to elect a new Krajina leader from their ranks. They are generally believed to be reasonable and influenced by the Communist Leaguethe Movement for Yugoslavia (SKPJ), which is important because of a possible confederation with Croatia, and that the area represents a good bufferzone between Eastern Slavonija and Knin Krajina. Paspalj's candidacy for the President of Krajina should be viewed in this light. However, Paspalj had a first hand experience of a proof of the strength of the Knin current. He had to allow a debate on Hadzic's responsibility both in Beli Manastir and in Plitvice.

Even though he conducted the Parliament session, it was still decided that the negotiator of RSK can by no means enter into negotiations about its sovereignty and independence. The public at wide first learned of General Mile Novakovic, the ChiefofStaff of the Krajina Army, only after the action of the Croatian Army in Maslenica. Prior to that, he was in service in Zagreb, and later fought on Banija. As a colonel, he took part in the operation "Corridor" in Northern Bosnia, he commanded "the tactical group two" and distinguished himself in the breach through the front near DebarKula.

The role of General Novakovic in the political life in Krajina is not negligible. There are several reasons. In the situation of general mobilization, when most of the people are armed and in the trenches, the opinion of the military leadership is very important. On the other hand, all political leaders in Krajina believe in "the defense of Krajina to the last man," but it is the army which can carry it out. Besides, the soldiers' salaries do not exceed several DM, so that a rerun of the "September '93" action in Banjaluka is likely.

There were some smallscale attempts which weren't well organized... Nevertheless, the headquarters whose command is in the hands of General Mile Novakovic hasn't done much to boast about. The Croatian Army has managed to surprise the Krajina Army and realize its tactical goals on both the occasion of the Croatian offensive in Ravni Kotari on January 22, and in the area of Medak at the beginning of September. The last defeat of Krajina Serbs in Divoselo, Pocitelj and Citluk, put Mile Novakovic's responsibility on the agenda. Besides, the stories which have been coming from Krajina for some time now, that Krajina is actually governed by a military junta, are becoming increasingly louder. Novakovic himself has so far avoided having to state his political stands. His spokesman, Kosta Novakovic has recently said that the army does not intend to meddle in politics.

However, he is increasingly perceived as Hadzic's man.