Deep Rift

Ten days after Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's historical announcement scheduling elections, matters on the opposition scene are becoming a bit clearer. Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica has finally said no to DEPOS, and will enter the elections alone; Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic's associates say he has, albeit ``depressed,'' decided to take part in the race ``in coalition with anyone, except with Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj''; the Democrats have quarrelled, while DS leader Dragoljub Micunovic answered VREME's question on who would form the new party with: ``Djindjic'' (Zoran, DS Executive committee president, ed. note). Seselj however, has no dilemmashe has set up a Committee for looking into war crimes and looting carried out by the regime's paramilitary formations, and will compete with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic and the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) at the risk of being arrested.

And while all this is taking place, only the DSS is working on the campaign (even though they haven't announced a formal decision to run), and Seselj's SRS. The SPO, as its Main Committee member Milan Komnenic said, has not yet even started preparations for the campaign, and is waiting for the Main Committee to announce the official decision, while Djindjic's tour of Serbia last week served more to lay the groundwork for toppling Micunovic than as preparation for elections.

According to information leaked from the DS, Djindjic has done his work well and now few give Micunovic even a theoretical chance. The DS Main Committee does not have the competency to dismiss him, so that a deeper rift is expected, and it could end with the splitting of a party which was long believed to be a serious one.

This view is upheld by stories that Micunovic has already secured for himself a financier for the continuance of what might be called the Democratic Party, or something similar. If they do split, and even though the Democrats' ratings have grown lately, no one gives either man much of a chance at the elections. ``In that case they will become passe,'' said an analyst commenting the Serbian political scene.

Apart from the danger of puttingoff voters with their quarrel, the Democrats have brought into question the possibility of a coalition with one of the stronger parties. Even the SPO which will repeat its old call for the joint toppling of the authorities (``at the price of getting one seat less in Parliament,'' said Komnenic), are now seriously thinking of excluding the ``compromised'' Democrats.

``We don't know how it will all end, nor do the political platforms of either party suit us,'' said Kostunica, commenting rumors that a new alliance between old party comrades might be possible if Djindjic were to take over the DS.

``The battle for voters is more important to us than a coalition,'' said Mihajlo Kovac, indicating that the DSS would enter the elections on its own. This was indirectly confirmed by Radoslav Stojanovic who told VREME that the DSS had already secured the necessary financial backing and gasoline for its campaign. ``We have enough of everything,'' said Stojanovic. In the DSS they believe that this is their chance to strengthen the party and capture a better position for the future. ``This does not mean that these elections are not important,'' said Kostunica talking to VREME, adding that one of the most important tasks facing his party would be the already mentioned battle for abstainers.

The SPO is just as much disappointed in Kostunica as he is with them, and they view Kostunica's decision to run alone and strengthen his party as treachery, and don't believe that the DSS will be able to make it.

``We will run separately, and we will lose together,'' complained Milan Komnenic, commenting the fact that there is no opposition coalition. Komnenic believes that program differences among opposition parties, which the DSS cite as an explanation when stating why they won't enter the elections alongside DEPOS, just don't exist. ``There are only differences between the leaders, they are at loggerheads, but not the parties,'' said Komnenic. As a compromise solution he mentions regional coalitions, hoping that the two main DEPOS members might find a common language in some cases.

Seselj does not believe the story that the voters' abstinence does not suit the opposition. ``The Socialists are the ones who should be afraid of that, they have nothing more to offer the people,'' said Seselj talking to VREME. He claims that compared to the last elections, the SRS cannot lose more than 10% votes this time. ``We might in fact win 10% more,'' he says. Even though his statements are aimed at bolstering selfconfidence, Seselj is spending a lot of his time guessing what the Socialists might have in store for him. That is why he will not be holding rallies during the campaign and has left the job of visiting voters in villages and cities throughout Serbia to his deputies and municipal committees. He has ordered total discipline and banned the carrying of arms without the proper papers, on point of exclusion from the party.

``They will resort to unconstitutional means,'' said Seselj, who believes that there is an equal chance for the introduction of a state of emergency before or after the elections. On the possibility of being arrested, he said that it was possible, like everything else.

Seselj and Komnenic have denied rumors of secret contacts between the SRS and the SPO. Komnenic said that ``some lawyers'' had, of their own initiative, tried to renew old links between today's irreconcilable opponents. Seselj does not have a high opinion of other preelection coalitions. ``They are stupid. There are too many people who can't stand each other. Some would join Vuk, but not Kostunica and the other way round, so that it is impossible to get them all together. Coalitions should be formed after the elections.''

Naturally, all this intolerance does not mean that the parties will not cooperate in some matters before the elections. All the parties have underscored their readiness to negotiate over the supervision of the elections and the media, but doubting Thomases do not believe that the SPO and the SRS will ever sit down to the same table.

However, some kind of an agreement must be reached, since all forecasts show that the opposition's votes will be shared between the DSS, the SPO and the SRS. Unless, of course, President Milosevic decides differently in the meantime.