Undecided And Uncommitted

With regard to the parties' rating, we shall compare the results of the November public opinion poll with those of Agency MF's early August opinion poll to see what happened after the clash of the two chief political protagonists (Socialist Party of Serbia and Serbian Radical Party).

Party Nov. Aug.

Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 21.6% 25.6% Serbian Radical Party (SRS) 12.15% 17.5% Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) 9.9% 8.4% Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) 7.2% 11.2% Democratic Party (DS) 8.6% 9.6% People's Party (Milan Paroski) 0.6% 4.3% Serbian National Renewal (SNO, Mirko Jovic) 3.3% 1.6% Civic Alliance (Vesna Pesic) 2.9% 1.2% SocDem. party of the Center (Cedomir Mirkovic) 0.2% 0.2% Party of Serb Unity (Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan) 3.1% Other party 1.6% 0.8% Undecided 16.1% 7.6% Would not participate in elections 10.4% 10.1%

The number of ``undecided'' has significantly grown (by around 10%). The Socialists' and Radicals' rating has dropped by 5%. The rise in the ``undecided'' and the lower rating of the Socialists and the Radicals is the same. It seems that 5% of the Radical and the Socialist supporters have fled to the ``undecided'' group. The situation has not changed significantly since August when other parties are in question. Only the new Party of Serb Unity has won a significant percentage of followers (around 3%), while Milan Paroski's People's Party has practically disappeared. Surprisingly, the Democratic Party and the Democratic Party of Serbia have not become more popular, on the contrarya certain drop or stagnation in comparison to August is probable.

How is one to transform the November results into election results (a percentage of won votes) under the assumption that the ``undecided'' be distributed in proportion to the rating of political parties and those who ``would not participate in the elections''? These are the results:

Party Percentage of won votes

Socialist Party of Serbia 30.4% Serbian Radical Party 17.1% Serbian Renewal Movement 13.9% Democratic Party of Serbia 10.1% Democratic Party 12.1% National Party (Paroski) 0.8% Serbian National Renewal (Mirko Jovic) 4.6% Civic Alliance 4.1% SocialDemocratic Party of Center 0.3% Party of Serb Unity 4.3% Other party 2.3%

One should bear in mind the fact that around 45% of the ballots cast at the elections are invalid so that the abovementioned percentage has to fall a bit. It is also possible that the ``undecided'' group contains (disproportionately) more followers of the ``opposition.''

We therefore maintain that the Socialist Party of Serbia's rating is between 25% and 28%. The rating of the other parties is close to the abovementioned percentages, with the modality ``Other Party'' getting stronger.

At last year's elections, the Democratic Movement of Serbia (DEPOS) won 24.36%, the Socialist Party of Serbia 23.62%, the Radical Party 20.32% and the Democratic Party 9.67% of the votes in Belgrade. At the hypothetical elections in early November, the Socialist Party would have improved its rating in comparison to the previous elections, winning over the votes that then went to the Radicals and a large number of ``small'' parties. DEPOS (Serbian Renewal Movement + Democratic Party of Serbia) would have remained at 24%. (When the public opinion outside Belgrade is in question, a significant change was noted in August as compared to last year's elections and in comparison to Belgrade).

The following answers were given to the question: What do you think of the idea of a global resolution for the burning problems of the former Yugoslavia (Krajina, BosniaHerzegovina, Kosovo)?:

Offered answer Percentage

I oppose the linking of the problem of Kosovo with the problem of Serbs outside Serbia 65.5%

If we want selfdetermination for Serbs in Krajina, we must agree to selfdetermination for Albanians in Kosovo (or part of Kosovo) 1.4%

If we want greater autonomy for Serbs in Krajina, we must agree to greater autonomy for Albanians in Kosovo (or part of Kosovo) 6.6%

No opinion 24.8%

To the question ``How good is Mr. Milosevic as President of Serbia?'', the following answers were given:

Offered answer Percentage

Very good 19.2% Satisfactory 22.7% Bad 27.0% Very bad 29.3%

Regarding the question ``Do you think the state TV's recent statements about the Serbian Radical Party and its leader Vojislav Seselj are true?''public opinion is very divided.

Offered answer Percentage

Completely true 27.3% Partially true, but malicious 22.8% It's a ruthless campaign 34.8% Completely untrue 13.2%

To the question: ``With the exception of sanctions, who is most responsible for the disastrous drop in the living standard?'', most of the polled mentioned the ruling party.

Offered answer Percentage

Ruling party (SPS) and its policy 47.9% Serbian Prime Minister Sainovic's government 15.5% Obstruction of opposition parties in Serbian Assembly 12.8% Aid to Serbs outside Serbia 6.3% Noone is responsible 15.5%

In November, as in August, the following question was asked: ``What do you think of the unification of all Serb lands (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the Serb Republic in BosniaHerzegovina and the Republic of Serb Krajina?''. The concept of unification has not lost much of its appeal. The results from August and November are very similar. This is confirmation that the chosen samples (which are completely different with regard to plan and implementation and scope; in August circa 300 persons were polled in Belgrade, and circa 500 in November) were sufficient to give a true picture of the target population.

Offered answer November August

I support the idea of unification 54.9% 57.1% I support unification but the time is not yet ripe 23.7% 25.5% I'm against unification 4.0% 6.7% No opinion 15.4% 10.3%

The question ``What should Yugoslavia do in the event of Croatia's attack on the Republic of Serb Krajina?'', shows that Radicalism has dropped since August.

Offered answer November August

Declare war on Croatia 19.1% 28.1% Send the Yugoslav Army to protect the Serbs in Krajina 16.7% 19.6% Organise the sending of volunteers and material aid 35.1% 37.6% Remain neutral 10.1% 5.2% No opinion 17.0% 8.8%

The question ``What do you think of the introduction of coupons for basic foodstuffs?'', showed significant changes favouring coupons. This indirectly points to the rapid drop of living standard from month to month and week to week, and the dinar's total loss of value.

Offered answer November August

I'm against the introduction of coupons 40.8% 57.8% The introduction of coupons is a necessity 39.0% 28.7% No opinion 18.6% 13.0%