No Roads Lead To A Coalition

There's still a month to go. According to the latest survey conducted by the Institute for Political Studies, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) should win approximately the same number of votes as it did last year, i.e., around 20% of the entire electorate. Srbobran Brankovic of ``Medija,'' at the Center for the Research of Public Opinion, believes that some 60% of the voters will vote, and that this is proof enough of the claim that ``They can't win a majority'' (meaning the SPS, ed. note).

But what if they can? The same survey shows that the opposition's percentage (that which refers to each party individually) has not changed much since the last election (Serbian Radical Party, SRS leader Vojislav Seselj is the only exception and has lost a fourth of his votersthey have joined the abstainers). The survey started before the quarrels between the parties began and contains a question on a united opposition. This unfortunate fiction shows a very positive percentage. The question received 9% more positive answers than the SPS (in other words, 30% of the electorate).

The dream of unification is a thing of the past and takes some getting used to. Perhaps it will be enough if the gentlemen of the opposition manage to refrain from mudslinging on St. Nicholas' feast day (December 19, also election day) and concentrate on their common enemy.

That something like this might even happen, is borne out by information arriving these days from opposition parties. This concerns secret meetings between opposition leaders, meetings at which they are laying down the rules of conduct. Top DS official Zoran Djindjic, Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica and Seselj have promised to play fairly. A daily paper was offered the information that a similar agreement had been reached between the SRS and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) led by Vuk Draskovic, but Draskovic denied this before the story came out.

The opposition has taken its campaign on the road. Vranje, Kragujevac, Leskovac... Medvedja, Lipljan, Obilic... Kragujevac, Krusevac, Loznica... As usual, Draskovic was the first to hit the road. He was followed by Kostunica. Seselj is visiting local radio stations, Djindjic has headed south and will visit Pristina.

The weather on the road is bad, the city squares are frozen and the halls freezing. At one of these campaign meetings a man asked Kostunica ``Which model of democracy do you uphold? The German, French or English?'' He then went on to explain: ``I'm asking you if you'll return the money these guys have stolen from me?''

Kostunica couldn't make any promises. Compared to him, Draskovic and Seselj look on this as some sort of a chance. Each in his way is promising the return of foreign currency savings, heating and the all those things we took for granted only yesterday. Realizing that all had embraced the story about national interests, the SPS regrouped and started doing what had long been expected of them. They started finding internal enemies. Top SPS officials Nebojsa Covic and Ivica Dacic started the ball rolling. Covic accused the opposition of being responsible for the disastrous situation in the city transport company. VREME asked SPS spokesman Dacic if this wasn't a reflection of SPS anxieties. Dacic replied: ``No, this is a reflection of the real state of affairs. Ahead of the elections, the opposition's slogan is: the worse, the better. The SPS are just saying that this is being done at the expense of the people.''

The opposition's ``ignorance'' isn't its only problem. During the opposition's first visit to Jagodina in 1990, the numerous audience was spoiling for a fight with the ``Communists''a change of power seemed imminent. Three years later, at the promotion of the DSS, the inhabitants of Jagodina (a hundred odd in the freezing hall), did not look like people who believed in the word ``victory.'' Kostunica gave the following explanation: ``They have realized that it is not easy to dislodge these people from power, and have withdrawn.'' On the other hand, things are looking up for the opposition. The authorities have compromised themselves too much to be viewed as such any longer; they are now perceived as someone to be wary of. During a live program on Radio Smederevo, a woman said: ``They are not Reds, they are bums.'' The SPS should be concerned about this. After Milosevic's initiative, they seem to have toned down their campaign. Dacic says that the SPS plan to go full speed ahead with the campaign in early December. SPS expectations are: ``A Parliamentary majority.''

The same words and expectations are repeated by Vesna Pesic who heads the Civic Alliance (GSS) which has become a member of the Serbian democratic movement (DEPOS), allied with the SPO. Pesic is asking what will happen if the opposition wins? Will Milosevic allow it to rule?

For the time being the Socialists are not elaborating the point. As a consolation, Dacic has denied stories of a state of emergency, and told VREME that ``We must have elections.''