A Return Game

Milan Panic leaves the impression of being politically more mature and realistic, a man who has realized that even his infectious optimism isn't right for a catastrophe of this scope. Since the last elections, laughter has been forgotten here and has practically become indecent. Serbia increasingly resembles a house of horror in which plain survival has become an art.

When he said that he would challenge Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic last year, Panic was viewed here as a soccer player who could, in the last seconds of a ``make it or break it'' game, give the decisive goal and so save us from dropping out of all world and civilization leagues. It turned out however, that all this was just a lot of wishful thinking, and that Milosevic never enters the field unless he knows the results beforehand, i.e., unless he can grab the ball in the middle of the game and puncture it if he doesn't like the results, unless he can stop the game and say: ``I don't want to play anymore, we agreed to play water polo and not soccer,'' etc. After last year's elections there were those who claimed that Panic would never have lived to see power handed over to him, and that instead of congratulations after an eventual victory at the elections, he could, at best, have counted on the introduction of a state of emergency and a one way ticket to the States.

What hasn't changed much in the interim between this and last December in Panic's political views, is his belief that a united democratic opposition in the event that it adopted a joint stand, could achieve something. According to this point of view, Milosevic's strength lies equally in his control over the state apparatus and all that it entails, as well as in the weak and badly organized opposition. Panic's campaign headquarters recently came up with the calculation that a united opposition could have won a majority at last December's election. A similar conclusion has been reached after the first public opinion poll carried out ahead of this year's election. But, as has been said many times before, it is a waste of time telling gamblers that they would be better off investing their money in oil. For the time being, the opposition leaves the impression of being more at odds than it has ever been. Most of the opposition leaders claim that Panic the politician is finished, and that they will not hook up onto his batteries. They believe that Panic himself is to blame for the situation. The great political capital he won at last year's election (he received over 1.3 million votes) has petered out because Panic spent a lot of time outside the country, and so allowed his name to disappear from the political scene. Considering his ambition to unite the opposition, Panic is criticized of not remaining in Belgrade to do so. Lack of success in this matter is the greatest weakness of Panic the politician. Milosevic's strongest point this time, as it was last December, will be his ability to unite the whole world against himself, while Panic will have to admit that he couldn't even unite the Serbian opposition.

There are however, those who believe that Panic's chances of leading the opposition today would have been different if he had spent most of the past twelve months living in Belgrade. Compared to last year's ``one chance'' campaign, it is thought now that this year's election will not help change the balance of strengths in the Assembly much. The campaign has started rather listlessly and colorlessly and the impression is that opposition parties are leaving Milosevic alone, and are concentrating on his Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), his infamous government which he, too, would have loved to abandon had the opposition not wanted it. All this led one DEPOS (Democratic Movement of Serbia) non party member to remark recently that the opposition parties preferred to take on each other, rather than the ruling SPS, and that they were more interested in the parts they were playing than in victory. People close to the leaderships of the various parties say informally that apart from improving the situation in the Assembly, this election should finally show who in future has any hopes of taking over party leadership.

Panic's appearance on Serbia's political scene last year, brought some life and vivacity to the opposition, but only after opposition leaders realized that Panic didn't represent an ``old policy in a new wrapping.'' The majority of the opposition decided too late to give him their support, and they were never really sincere in doing so. At the time, they liked the fact that Panic had refused to be one of Milosevic's bit players and that he rejected the trademarks of Serbian politics, sullen looks and an apocalyptic outlook. They were suspicious however, of Panic's political knowhow and feared his wellintentioned amateurism and occasional flights of fancy. But perhaps their greatest criticism of Panic was that he wasn't very good at embracing ``professional patriotism,'' which is what decided the elections. All in all, they regarded him as proof that the American Dream could come true, but this was not a fairytale country, and the stories told here were different.

Ahead of elections, both politicians in power and a part of the opposition speak of Panic as a ``has been'' politician. In their reactions the authorities show a certain discomfort with regard to Panic's plans, because those 30%odd votes he won last December amid satanization in the media and character assassination during a campaign lasting only a few days, do command respect among the Socialists. This is why the first indications that Panic might return to Belgrade for a longer stay, were met with the affair over Panic's pharmaceutical company ICN Galenika, all with the goal of presenting him as a phony and conman. When it was realized that Panic's ambitions weren't so great this year, the whole affair was put on ice and the tactic of ignoring him was adopted. State television headed by Milorad Vucelic records all meetings between Milosevic, Yugoslav President Zoran Lilic, top SPS official Borisav Jovic and SPS spokesman Goran Percevic with Greek lawyers and Bulgarian journalists, but fails to mention that former Yugoslav PM Milan Panic met with US President Bill Clinton. If Panic were to show any political ambitions again, this information would naturally be broadcast (with the picture) and claims that Clinton and the CIA were sending Panic to Belgrade on a special mission. The problem with the opposition's interpretation of Panic's comeback is that it comes from those who made two to three unsuccessful attempts (Panic made only one attempt) at capturing power, but still do not consider themselves passe.