A Shortage Of Optimists

Former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic is back, and the party continues. The number of pessimists in Serbia grows daily. One of the latest surveys shows that only 56% of the electorate will go to the polls. Panic's appeals and the reactivating of a part of the student body have not found a warm response among the opposition.

On being asked if he would attend a meeting of the students' movement at which opposition leaders would meet and talk about an eventual unification, Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic told VREME on Thursday evening: ``No, I'm visiting Kikinda on Saturday.'' There isn't much enthusiasm among the others either. VREME's sources say that Democratic Party (DS) leader Zoran Djindjic, (who is being talked into unification with the rest of the opposition by Panic and DS senior leader Dragoljub Micunovic), said at a meeting with Panic that if he had wished to be on the same list as Draskovic, he would have become a member of the SPO long ago.

``Judging by the atmosphere in the party, I don't think we're heading for unification,'' said Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) member Mihajlo Kovac talking to VREME. The DSS will not attend the meeting either. The reason, as in Draskovic's case, is that DSS leader Vojislav Kostunica will be attending a campaign rally outside Belgrade on Saturday. Those who are well informed about what goes on in this party, believe that Kostunica's absence is due primarily to Draskovic's. There is also the view that Kostunica believes that Milan Panic and talk on unification are things of the past.

In an atmosphere of general suspicion, Panic remains the only optimist. Since his arrival on Wednesday evening, he has managed to meet with Draskovic, Civic Alliance leader Vesna Pesic, Micunovic, Djindjic, former Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic and others. After the meetings, Panic said that ``Draskovic was 100% for the coalition, leader of the Democratic Reformists in Vojvodina Dragoslav Petrovic was 80% for it, Kostunica (with whom he hasn't met yet) 60%, and Djindjic only 40%.'' VREME has learned that Draskovic promised Panic that he would withdraw as the leading name on electoral lists and would agree to the drawing up of new ones if Djindjic joined the coalition. It is a matter of speculation if Vuk knew that the idea was a stillborn one and so made his promise. The current state of affairs show that DEPOS wants to have Panic at its campaign rallies.

Observers explain the pigheadedness of opposition leaders in running on individual tickets, with their personal animosity. They seem to regard these elections as a chance of showing each other where they stand. Finding the answer to ``Who is the Daddy of the Serbian opposition?'' interests them as much as changing the regime in Belgrade. Perhaps even more so, since each believes more in his superiority over the others, than they do in a victory over the Socialists.

Psychologist and DEPOS deputy in the former Serbian Assembly Aleksandra Jankovic, views the rift in the opposition as the result of ``narcissistic impulses'' of some leaders. The consequences of this situation include the following: ``The people's belief that only dishonest and immoral persons go into politics is being confirmed, as are stories spread by the Socialists according to which the opposition is only interested in power and authority,'' said Jankovic.

Regardless of all this, the opposition still believes that it can win. Some of its members are even honestly afraid of such a possibility (``What will we do then?''), while others believe that it would force Milosevic to make a decisive moveto introduce a state of emergency. Others count on ``the Serbian President's subtlety'' and his calculated loss of a certain number of votes and ministerial seats to the opposition. In this way he would divide responsibility for the situation in the country with his opponents and they would slowly head towards their end. Of course, it remains to be seen who of the opposition would decide on a coalition with the Socialists tomorrow. For the time being, Djindjic is the only one who has said publicly that he is prepared to take such a step.

The others are drawing closer to Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj, and he is drawing closer to them. ``A coalition with the Socialists is out of the question, and I will not support any minority government,'' said Seselj talking to VREME, adding that he would go into coalition with DEPOS and other opposition parties if a ``concrete program of government'' were to be drawn up. ``We are interested in a liberal concept of economy and a democratic one in politics,'' said Seselj, underscoring the well-known fact that he is the ``most adaptable politician in Serbia.''

The rest of the opposition seem to be aware of this, so that SPO general secretary Vladan Gajic told VREME that the key issue of the elections was: What will Seselj do? ``If he doesn't go under 40 places in the Assembly, the opposition will have a majority. In that case, a coalition against the Socialists is a realistic possibility,'' said Gajic.

Seselj, who has obviously been recognized as a fully fledged member of the opposition, recently signed an agreement on fair play and gentlemanly behavior during the campaign. DEPOS federal assembly deputy Mihajlo Markovic said with regret that he would now have to withdrew his complaint against SRS member Branislav Vakic who had knocked him out in the Assembly.

All in all, the opposition stands a good chance of taking the lead in the field. The announced joint control of voting could help prevent greater thefts (even though it was never proved that there were any in the past), and the winning of a sufficient number of places in the Assembly, and a broader opposition coalition.

The only mystery is why are there so many pessimists?