The Countdown Starts

It is still impossible to make forecasts in Serbia.

``We have nothing,'' said a worker from Trstenik talking to journalists. He is one of 10,000 workers employed by a local factory, who have not worked for a year. Their salaries are distributed to them by ``those who print money,'' while help from relatives living in villages cannot be counted on. Asked how he lived, the man said he didn't.

Salaries in the factory stand between 20--30 DM and this is a lot more than received by others in the Trstenik region. The man says that this is too little, and that he wants things to change. He doesn't know if the other workers think the same way, but then no one does.

A field generator reached the village of Gradi, 10 km from Kraljevo (central Serbia) on Thursday, along with the campaign. Farmer Miroslav Radovanovic put out his paraffin lamp and talked to Democratic Party (DS) leader Zoran Djindjic in room lit up by an electric bulb. Later, in the unlit yard, a peasant, on being told who the guest was, just shrugged and said ``Really?'' Djindjic is the only politician who has visited this village. When he left, his party took the field generator with them.

There are posters everywhere. There are concerts where the stars sing for the politicians. Average salaries are 1.5 DM. ``It doesn't mean a thing,'' said a youth in Vrnjacka Banja, ``give them bread, water and the evening news, and they'll vote for Milosevic'' (Slobodan, Serbian President). Others claim that the opposition will win.

The people gather at rallies and shout slogans. They stop opposition politicians in the streets and ask for their autographs. They are convinced that something will change and they booed Milomir Minic who was promoting the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) in Valjevo. ``I'll vote for anyone, just not for the ones in power right now,'' said a pensioner in the eerily empty supermarket in Trstenik. He wrote out a cheque and bought three soaps, thus spending his entire pension.

At the same time, a hundred odd kilometers away, Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic was nodding his head in concern. The inhabitants of Orasac were telling him that the ``Communists'' would win again. ``They will, Vuk, definitely.'' In smaller, darker places, the opposition's victory at elections is viewed as a dream. Farmer Radojko Josic who was asked by journalists how the people felt ahead of elections, said that a chicken continued running around after its head had been cut off.

``How much longer will they come here,'' shouted a passer-by after seeing a crowd following Djindjic (DS). An old lady took Djindjic's picture and said that she would vote for him. Asked who she had voted for at the last elections, she replied: ``Wouldn't you like to know?.'' Jelena is a DS sympathizer and believes that Djindjic and Party of Serb Unity (PSJ) leader Zeljko Raznatovic Arkan and the SPS stand the best chance of winning in Krusevac.

Throughout Serbia, the majority of the people are silent when asked about the elections, they just shrug or cuss. They regard politicians with suspicion and if they do attend the rallies, then they stand in the back rows and stare disinterestedly. As if they know that once again, the outcome will depend on them, the silent majority.

The SPS is conducting its campaign through the media. The main event is expected on December 16, when Milosevic visits Kladovo. Will this spectacle be enough to ensure 126 deputy seats (50% of the total number of seats in the Serbian Assembly) the question currently uppermost in the thoughts of the Socialists. According to some information the SPS have a survey which shows that they will fare badly at the polls. Top SPS official Borisav Jovic said that there was a danger that the opposition might win. SPS spokesman Ivica Dacic told VREME that this was Jovic's ``private opinion.''

Rumours abound: the SPS have split, that Milosevic alarmed, the Socialists are not happy with the fact that Arkan has founded a party and will arrest him before elections, Mirjana Markovic (Milosevic's wife, and League of Communist-Movement for Yugoslavia leader) has taken things into her hands... All in all, the biggest Serbian party is in disarray.

Some opposition members are happy because of this, others are cautious and claim that all these rumours are being spread by the SPS. This is too suspect, since SPS members are known for their loyalty to their leader and party. That is why it is more likely that the matter concerns tactics aimed at lulling opponents into a feeling of security. The waking up will come with Election Day.

In the meantime, Serbian PM Nikola Sainovic is touring Serbia followed by TV cameras. In Cacak, and in the presence of a group of peasants who held up Milosevic's picture, he opened the same waterworks for the fourth time. The countdown has started.