Naval Offensive

Navy Commander Rear Admiral Dojcilo Isakovic announced that the construction of navy base in the cove of Valdanos was about to begin although there was no approval by the Montenegrin authorities. The announcement completely surprised those well informed. Especially since the Montenegrin government a half a year ago responded negatively to the request by the Yugoslav Army (VJ) and the Supreme Court of Montenegro failed to decide to authorize the Admiral to announce carrying out of the project. ``Synchronized political pressure on the Montenegrin authorities is quite likely to ensue,'' a member of the Montenegrin leadership who wanted to remain anonymous said. He also added that a number of disputes with new military authorities are underway, primarily because of their ambitions which are in contradiction with the real needs of a recently transformed army, and, particularly, the navy. ``The army's requests have been turned down on several occasions before, but this could not have been connected with the authorities' intentions to expel the army from the territory of Montenegro. Montenegro was in favor of a joint state and is aware that it needs an army, but generals and admirals have shown no interest to agree among themselves and find optimal solutions.''

According to our source, the Government of Montenegro has shown readiness to solve all possible disputes with the army and the federal state through an argumented dialogue, without politicizing. The Government Commission for negotiations with the army was formed for that purpose. Deputy Prime Minister Zoran Zizic is at the head of the Commission, but it is not known whether Zizic may have given a signal to the Yugoslav Army thus possibly encouraging Admiral Isakovic. In any case, media campaign for and against military authorities' intentions was launched, but the Montenegrin leadership have so far refused to take part in it. They did not want to give an additional argument to those forces which ascribe separatism and possible secession from Yugoslavia to them.

The Montenegrins have publicly protested on several occasions against Montenegro turning into a largest arms dump which strengthened the movement for demilitarization of Montenegro, especially after it was learned that 80 per cent of military potential in the former Yugoslavia's navy is located on 170 km of the Montenegrin coast, i.e. one tenth of the former state border.

The idea about turning Boka into a military port was immediately attacked. The military leadership also ignored the fact that all ships stationed in Boka would be an easy gain for every potential aggressor. It is still unclear how have Admiral Isakovic and his associates imagined to make the port attractive for other purposes as well, but the media (the article in the Belgrade daily ``Politika'' by Miroslav Lazanski) have concluded that this solution for the port was ``best and least expensive.''

Was that the main motive for deciding on Valdanos? Have the interests of Montenegro ever been considered? The army allegedly considered the arguments of Montenegro that Boka should be spared and that warships and submarines be removed, but that it should keep the right to construct objects on Lustica peninsula which could be used as an ``optimal proving ground'' for ``the needs of the Yugoslav Army.'' The Government of Montenegro gave its support to Minister Burzan who by saying NO tried to protect Boka and Valdanos, both of which are international scenic spots, but also Krajice since Lake Skadar officially became a national park several years ago. This can be used for defense against ambitions whose only justification lies with defense power of the state.

Does Montenegro have to sacrifice its most beautiful scenery if there is a possibility, on condition that some investments are made, that the navy is stationed at a much better strategic position---in one of a dozen bays on the Montenegrin coast?

A member of the Montenegrin leadership who spoke to us dismissed as an argument the fact that Valdanos has a necessary infrastructure. Also the fact that in Valdanos there are conditions for building army barracks for ground troops and flats for 86 per cent of navy officers whose question of housing has not been solved yet. This, according to ``Politika,'' would ``also have an effect on the make-up of the population in Ulcinj (Albanians comprise a majority population), which is not unimportant.'' Such arguments do not mean much in Montenegro, since even the official authorities are not inclined to make artificial demographic corrections, especially since they are aware that tourism cannot possibly flourish in the shadow of cannon. Another funny argument is that the base should be built as close to the Albanian border as possible and a special port for warships in the village of Krnjice, directly on the border with Albania, if it's taken into account that a semi-civilian port located in Virpazar, some 20 kilometers to the west has so far successfully fulfilled the role of defense.

The Montenegrin leadership have thus far kept their NO to the Yugoslav Army in secrecy, but it is questionable now what effect would the whole thing have on the public opinion in Montenegro, especially after fighting around Prevlaka which at the time prompted 80 per cent of Montenegrins capable of military service to take up arms and go to defend ``those military and strategic rocks of significance.'' The area is now outside the territory of Montenegro and leaders of the Bosnian Serb Republic and Croatia are wrangling over it. There's an impression that Montenegrins would easily give up on Prevlaka if there was no danger that the entire Boka is lost. Pale and Trebinje claim it much more feverishly than Croatian authorities do. The fact that Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, Bosnian Serb Parliament Spokesman Momcilo Krajisnik, and Bosnian Serb leader in Trebinje (Eastern Herzegovina) Bozidar Vucurovic and leaders of nationalist parties in Serbia are trying to arrange that Prevlaka first becomes a part of the Bosnian Serb Republic, ``after which the agreement with Montenegrins would be an easy matter,'' is interpreted as Montenegro's enclosure. In that case, Boka is open to intrusion by Serb patriots, who had made it clear that ``Boka is Serbian,'' and there are only few who have an illusion that the Yugoslav Army or the Navy which is desperately looking for an anchorage would do anything to oppose it.

The local population is exasperated over this. They never noticed the navy fleet until recently, but were used to seeing ships built by Montenegrin companies. Now they are faced with a possibility not to see them any longer, since the federal state does not think they are important nor is doing anything to prevent them being sold at some international auction. Our source claims that Federal Prime Minister Radoje Kontic had personally put a veto on the project which would allow Montenegrin trading ships to leave port under the flag of one European country, which would bring in a profit instead of piling up losses. The same source said that the condition was to agree to everything Admiral Isakovic wanted, and that is where the reasons for the naval offensive can be found. Montenegro can now only make assessments what would harm her less and a loss of Valdanos, Lake Skadar, and Boka would harm her least. Everybody has gotten over tourism.