What's Cooking?

In the early eighties, in those interminable queues in Warsaw (like in Belgrade today), the people often repeated a joke about a session of the Politburo of the Polish Communist Party. The General Secretary was looking through the window one day at a mass of demonstrators. He asked those present angrily:

* "All right! Do we have enough flour?" * "We do," replied the members of the Politburo. * "Do we have enough sugar?" * "We do," repeated the members in a single voice. * "Do we have enough meat?" * "We have enough meat," said the Politburo. * "If we have enough of everything, then why are the people protesting in the streets?" asked the General Secretary in surprise. * "They don't," said a lonely voice.

From December 13, 1981 to the present day, Europe has forgotten what a state of emergency means. In the last few weeks, warnings have been arriving from various sides that a state of emergency is about to happen to Serbia, and that if the Socialists lose at elections, Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic could opt for such a move. Allegedly all that is missing, is for the opposition to win a majority in Parliament, or for the Socialist's to pull through by the skin of their teeth, thus preventing the Serbian President from carrying out his duties, and we will see him on the evening news with a service-cap on his head, saying: "This is the evening news," after which he will sign a decree on introduction of a state of emergency and bang his fist on the table.

All in all, stories of a state of emergency have been cooked up in some Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) kitchen with the idea of pressuring and coercing undecided voters into going to the polls. It is interesting however, that a large part of the opposition immediately latched onto the story, and that they really believe in it, or mention it for tactical reasons. Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) leader Vuk Draskovic and Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj, two political opponents who have rarely agreed over anything in the last few years, speak of the possibility of a state of emergency in the same way in their campaign speeches. When discussing this subject, they and many others take as their starting point the idea that a state of emergency is Milosevic's final option, the injection which will prolong his regime's life a little longer.

Those who believe that Milosevic is preparing for this step bring up more or less the same arguments: the activities of the Serbian authorities and international sanctions have resulted in the collapse of the Serbian economy, a collapse much greater than that which took place in Poland ten years ago, so that hunger and misery are becoming mass phenomenon; the monetary system is on the verge of a breakdown and the only program offered by the government is the non-stop printing of money. Three post World War Two inflations---in China, Greece and Hungary ended with the introduction of a state of emergency, the abolishing of money and the introduction of an administrative economy. In the last few days Serbia has witnessed a wave of mysterious, allegedly "spontaneous" strikes, which could serve as an overture to the introduction of a state of emergency. Some trade unions propose that for a start, a state of emergency be introduced in the municipal transport company. Official propaganda has brainwashed many people into thinking that the only way out is the introduction of order, since nothing functions here anymore, thanks to the opposition and independent media who are spoiling the image of a pure-as-the-driven-snow regime, in the eyes of the world. It can frequently be heard that we have enough flour, sugar and meat to feed the whole of Europe, and not just the people in the streets, all that is needed is to force the peasants who have become too big for their boots to hand it over to the state. A Belgrade director said: "The time has come when all must act in the defence of national interests, and when things settle down, then it will be possible to choose party loyalty according to one's sympathies."

The common element of all these stories is that what we are going through today, cannot end without the introduction of a state of emergency. It is also said that Serbia has been living in an undeclared state of emergency for the past few years. During this time the state has been embodied in one man with Bonaparte-like competencies and limitless Constitutional options for ruling by decree.

Since a state of emergency of sorts already exists, forecasts of the Socialists' downfall at elections seem unfounded, the opposition's insistence that a state of emergency will be introduced at any moment, seems fatuous. When the pros and cons for the President's eventual official decision on such a move are weighed, it turns out that the moment has not yet arrived for this regime to be greatly concerned over its future. Thanks to the fact that he guided the writers of the Constitution, Milosevic can still manoeuver both parliaments without having his back up against the wall, even in the case that the Socialists don't fare all that well at elections. A general overhauling of Serbia and the entire system require that the opposition ensure a two-thirds majority in parliament, which is very difficult to achieve right now. Without a change in the balance of strengths, Milosevic will continue to control the main levers of authority (the police and television) and dictate the rules of the game. Economists claim that the excessive printing of money could continue for another month through various banking rigmaroles, the deleting of naughts and with coupons for foodstuffs, thus maintaining the illusion that an economic system and the dinar still exist. As long as such a situation exists, there will be no need to hurry with a state of emergency.

The introduction of a state of emergency would push Serbia into even greater international isolation, and drop the possibility of suspending sanctions from the agenda, and it would prolong negotiations on Bosnia ad infinitum. At home such a decision would result in even greater difficulties and having to face certain technical and organizational limits which this authority cannot overcome. A state of emergency implies a great deal of repression and this is not easily achieved in Serbia today, at least not as a long-term option. Vuk Draskovic is right when he claims that with a salary of a few Deutsche marks, even the police are no longer willing to beat him up.

It would be impossible to introduce work duties during a state of emergency, for the simple reason that there is nothing to do. It would be difficult to generate the necessary enthusiasm among state officials in order that life in general might be controlled, and it is even more difficult to imagine how "patriotic rules of censorship" would be implemented, entailing the abolishing of all "treacherous" independent media.

By introducing a state of emergency, Milosevic's regime would lose its greatest advantage---that of functioning on the principle of "fighting external and internal enemies." Without parliament, a government, opposition, trade unions, "treacherous" media, enemies in every breath of air and the city transport company, the authorities would only be left with the planetary conspiracy against the Serbs. This is too little for the regime's normal functioning. A state of emergency and the absence of "enemies" would automatically make all those who are hungry (and their numbers grow daily) turn to one address. Milosevic is too experienced and crafty to deprive himself of such a great advantage and accept sole responsibility for everything.

Even if the opposition manage to do something at these elections, there is no need to hurry with the introduction of a state of emergency. Before playing this card, Milosevic might manage to suppress his repulsion of the opposition and offer them a coalition government. After a few months he could go on television saying: "I gave them a chance, and in only a few months they managed to botch up all that we had built with so much effort over the years on the national and economic planes. They have covered Serbia with nuclear waste and nothing will ever grow again, that is why I am abolishing them all."