Wisdom After the Event

Had this attempt succeeded, and the three big democratic parties, the so-called 3D parties (DEPOS - the Serbian Democratic Movement, DS - Democratic Party, DSS - Democratic Party of Serbia) had entered the elections on a single ticket, the results would have been somewhat different (see table on a United Opposition list). In that case the ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) would have lost seven seats, the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) two seats, all of which would have gone to the democratic opposition, while the parties representing ethnic minorities (Hungarians and Albanians) would have retained the same number of deputies.

If we speculate a little, then we come up with the hypothesis that a united opposition would have had an additional effect: the number of abstainers would have decreased and the number of voters voting in favor of the opposition would have increased.

Unfortunately, the opposition parties did not have the political wisdom to unite, nor did they have the strength to change things and turn Serbia into a single electoral unit. The SPS's greatest advantage at these elections was electoral system: electoral units were cut to suit the needs of the SPS. In this way, the SPS won nearly half their total number of seats in the south of the country in Pristina, Nis and Leskovac, while the opposition returned only 12 seats. With less than half a million votes (457,755) the SPS won 50 seats. The 3D opposition parties won 12 seats with half the SPS number of votes (228,503). It would not be an exaggeration to say that the south beat the north in these elections, the undeveloped got the better of the developed, the provinces won over the metropolis and the villages over the cities.

If Serbia were a single electoral unit, parties representing ethnic minorities (they won seven seats at these elections) would not have any deputies because they would not be able to pass the required 5% or (214,068 votes). In that case the distribution of seats would be as shown in the table "Serbia as one electoral unit", i.e., DEPOS, SRS, DS and the DSS would profit (winning twice as many seats as they have now).

The Serbian opposition has not learned anything from the previous elections, unlike the ethnic Albanian opposition. In Leskovac (southern Serbia) there are two parties rallying ethnic Albanians: the Democratic Party of Albanians and the Party for Democratic Activities. At the 1992 elections these two parties ran on separate tickets and won 27,414 votes. This was not enough for a seat. The two parties entered the 1993 elections with a single list and in spite of the fact that they won less votes than they did in 1992, they ended up with two seats. In spite of all its propaganda, the SPS did not manage to achieve its strategic goal at these elections - a majority and the setting up of a "stable" government. The SPS interpretation of election results as a great SPS victory, is politically motivated.

It is necessary to prepare the public for another SPS minority government. This is very important to them, since it could happen that the Socialists lose all authority in the federal state. Namely, if the newly-elected deputies follow the practice of their predecessors, and choose a delegation for the Yugoslav Assembly's Chamber of Republics at the first constituent session of the Serbian Assembly, under existing law, deputies with an absolute majority will be chosen. If the opposition manages to reach a gentleman's agreement on the division of seats, the SPS could find itself without a single deputy in one of the Federal Assembly chambers! The minority deputies in the Serbian Assembly will tip the scales. The side that gets their votes will have its representatives. If it gets half the seats in the Chamber of Republics, the Serbian opposition will then be the strongest parliamentary group in the Yugoslav Assembly: of a total number of 138 seats, they already have 61, while the SPS have 47. The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), the SPS's coalition party from Montenegro has 17 deputies, while other Montenegrin parties have 13 deputies.

Serbia - a single electoral unit

Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) 110

DEPOS, the united opposition 50

Serbian Radical Party (SRS) 41

Democratic Party (DS) 34

Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) 15

A Single Opposition List Total

SPS 116

3D 90

SRS 37

DZVM 5

K PDPDA 2

(DZVM - Democratic Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, K PDPDA - Coalition of Albanian parties)