A Contented Man

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) director must have been impressed when he received a letter from Yugoslav Prime Minister Radoje Kontic, a few days ago. In the letter, IMF experts are asked to study the Yugoslav government's latest anti-inflationary program, and to give their assessments as to whether it is possible to start a recovery of the dinar and a reconstruction of the monetary system. The letter includes a sentence, obviously aimed at impressing top IMF officials: "I have the pleasure of informing you that the initiative for the drafting of this program was made by Mr. Milosevic, President of Serbia..."

After having read this sentence, the IMF director must have stopped to think what exactly it was that the Yugoslav PM wished to say - was the accent of the letter on the anti-inflationary program, or Mr. Milosevic. For someone working in the IMF and not familiar with the political situation here, it would seem a bit unusual that a Prime Minister was calling on the authority of a man occupying a lower hierarchical step, i.e., a man at the head of a part of the federal state. The logical conclusion would be that the fate of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is linked directly to the decisions and whims of the Serbian President. Or perhaps, that he stands above Parliament, which is not mentioned in the letter. Prime Minister Kontic's understatement could lead someone to think that Yugoslavia is not a state governed by law, and that everything is subjected to the decisions of just one man, on the principle: "all that the Constitution says is right... but I say..."

Kontic's letter is open to various interpretations on the nature of democracy here. Does he, by mentioning Milosevic, wish to remind the IMF that the anti-inflationary program has the support of the only man here whom the world considers a serious politician and negotiator? Or perhaps Kontic wished to tell world bankers that they have no reason to doubt a program which has been initiated and blessed by that giant of Serbian banking, Slobodan Milosevic? And finally, a logical question: what would have happened if Milosevic had not noticed that inflation had reached a monthly rate of one million percent, and so opted for a courageous move aimed at saving the country's monetary system? Would Kontic have written a similar letter to the IMF, or would he have waited for a more opportune moment?

Regardless of the conclusion reached by IMF experts in the end, Prime Minister Kontic and his team have received the go-ahead sign and have finally started organizing some sort of an anti-inflationary policy. The man who gave the sign does not really care if the federal government succeeds or not. No one really expected much from Kontic's cabinet from its first day in office (March 1993), certainly not a turnabout. It was enough that they were there and would take the blame for all that went wrong, or when things got too hot for Milosevic's regime. Radoje Kontic was aware of his role from the very beginning, and tried to play it as best he could.

Since 1978, when he left the Niksic (Montenegro) ironworks and entered his first government, Kontic, who holds a doctoral degree in technology, has understood the technique of survival in politics. He learned on time that "manners make fortunes", and that with the kind of policy he was serving, it didn't matter what one thought, but that one agreed when necessary. Kontic has behind him three federal and two republican (Montenegrin) governments. He has managed leave all these governments without moral or political bruises. However, he will have to do a lot better this time, because the stakes are much higher. But if he plays his cards right, and takes the blame for all economic failures in the right spirit, Milosevic's regime will certainly protect him from greater misfortunes in future.

Radoje Kontic accepted the prime ministership after Milan Panic's dismissal from office. Panic had been brought over from America with great hopes that an old and tired policy would be presented as something new. It soon proved that Panic had no intention of parroting Milosevic's ideas and that he wished to play the game according to different rules. At the time, Panic was described as a man who had boarded a pirate ship. He soon showed that he wished to take over the helm and steer the ship on a different course. Kontic as Prime Minister was proof that experiments with men like Panic were over, and that only a proven man would be walking the deck, one who would not even dare turn the steering-wheel. After Panic it was necessary to find someone who would be sufficiently nondescript, a man not given to scandals, one who wouldn't run around all over the world, who didn't speak languages and give interviews every day, and wasn't a threat to the Leader. It would be preferable if the candidate didn't pick his nose like some deputies in the Assembly, or drink as much as the former National Bank governor did. In short, someone like Yugoslav President Zoran Lilic.

The skill and discretion with which Kontic carries out his duties are best illustrated by the fact that few are pointing an accusing finger either at him or his government, in spite of an annual and monthly inflation which are setting new world records. Most of the people understand that Kontic and his cabinet are just frontmen and that they are not really responsible for the economic chaos they preside over.

Many economists believe that Kontic is not up to the job, and the situation in the country. Even though Kontic spent fifteen years serving on various governments and holding various posts, they are openly suspicious of Kontic's qualifications in leading the country's macro-economic policy. That Kontic did not have any ambitions in this direction, was obvious from the beginning when he agreed to an inferior cabinet, put together by others. Aware of the division of power, Kontic decided to walk on very narrow ground, where his views are taken into consideration.

Those in the know claim that the federal PM is an ideal technocrat, a man capable of dealing with the details of government sessions, but not of grasping the overall situation. A well-known Belgrade economist described Kontic as a methodical and rational man, full of energy, well-informed and with a great deal of concentration. He claims that Kontic is very good at conducting cabinet sessions and that he always comes well prepared.

When the balance is drawn up one day, the Federal PM will probably be criticized for not having withdrawn on time from a job he was not equipped to do. It is hard to believe that Kontic was masochistically motivated to enter history as the Prime Minister with the least successful government, the one with the highest rate of inflation during its term in office. Kontic will probably be viewed as a "small-time player", a man who was not prepared to resign even though it was obvious that there was nothing he could do. In such cases, to resign is an act of moral courage, one made long before others demand it. It could happen that when he is forced to resign, Kontic will come up with arguments such as: it wasn't my fault, power lay elsewhere, I worked the whole day long, I read all there was to read, and I don't think anyone could have done more...

A man of his experience should know that the job he took on requires a lot more than goodwill, neatness and precision. He must also know that those who swear allegiance are never innocent.