Pragmatists, Politicians, Careerists...

It still remains to be seen if Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic agrees to such a program, since he is the man who will have the final say. It was Milosevic who called it "an economic program", one which would "encourage production". Oskar Kovac, an influential ruling Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) figure, caused fellow economists a lot of concern after saying that it was uncertain when the implementation of the expected measures would begin. In other words, the policy of vacillating continues, even though the dinar has long been dead.

Is this hesitating due to the fact that a new governor has not yet been chosen, a man who will have to handle the anti-inflationary operation? After the resignation of governor Borislav Atanackovic, Milosevic spoke with regret of several weeks lost at the start of putting things into order in the monetary sphere. At the time, three names were dangled before the public as potential candidates for the post of NBJ Governor: President of Vojvodjanska Banka Zivota Mihajlovic, President of the French-Yugoslav Bank Miodrag Zecevic and the general director of Komercijalna Banka Ljubomir Mihajlovic. Beobanka President Zlatan Perucic set up his candidacy independently. Those with better memories recalled that a number of ministers were considered for the post when Borislav Atanackovic was chosen governor. Since none of these former candidates is a co-author of the several anti-inflationary concepts currently being discussed at secret sessions aimed at finding out who stands the best chance of becoming governor, it would be logical to first analyze the various variants of the anti-inflationary program. The lucky candidate could be determined according to this criteria.

It will be difficult to find a governor capable of satisfying the needs of the group of anti-inflationary proposals based on the "orthodox model" and urgent and strong, or shock measures, aimed at curbing the monetization of the fiscal deficit, considered to be the key generator of inflation.

More or less all members of this group propose a reduction of the budgetary deficit by two-thirds (one-third would be covered by increasing income derived from taxation, while the second third would be covered by decreasing expenditure).

Politicians urging "Serbian unity" and a Socialist-type solution find some of the solutions put forward by the above mentioned plan, painful. The thing they find hardest to swallow is the fact that aid to the Serb Krajinas would have to be halved (now allegedly at one billion 270 million dollars per year). The participation of the army in the distribution of the social product would have to be decreased from 8% to 6%.

When the anti-inflationary plans reached the Federal Economic Council, the proposal for the "freezing of the primary issue" had already been dropped, but the formulation a "firm and restrictive monetary policy" was left. A proposal for the revision of monetary support of the economy, under which credit from the primary issue would be granted to agriculture and the power-supply industry, does not encourage exports.

The plan also foresaw a great "foreign currency liberalization", i.e., all firms would have the right to a foreign currency account, and the foreign currency market would be a two-way one. In order to curb runaway rates, a "foreign currency pool" would be used, which because of an absence of foreign support, would be formed on the basis of "foreign currency flow" (money collected from foreign currency taxes levied at borders, from the sale of petrol for foreign currency, from free shops and from taxes paid in foreign currency).

If we return to the list of potential governors after this quick sketch on grants and other financial activities, we will be hard put to come up with the right man.

Zivota Mihajlovic, the director of Vojvodjanska Banka has built up the image of a pragmatist. He has worked with a small firm in Temerin and a big one - Nafta gas (oil company) in Novi Sad. He learned the art of banking while working as an advisor with the Novosadska Banka. It is very likely that he would have the support of colleagues in commercial banks because he said recently that "the policy of interest rates was detrimental, since it didn't help anyone, and ruined the banks."

Miodrag Zecevic has two strong points in his favor. He was NBJ vice-governor some ten years ago, and what is more important, he was vice-president of Beogradska Banka, when Slobodan Milosevic worked there. In spite of his megalomania, which can be looked on as a favorable characteristic in carrying through the "historical mission" awaiting the new governor, he could be dropped from the list of potential candidates if Milosevic opts for a serious anti-inflationary policy. There is a possibility that Milosevic might choose an expendable candidate for the unpopular job of putting out the monetary conflagration.

Ljubomir Mihajlovic put up his candidacy himself, and is known to be well-informed. The head of Komercijalna Banka has, during recent appearances, mentioned the tax system often, also adding that he studied it in detail while working in Germany. Since most of the stabilization programs underline the fiscal sphere, Mihajlovic urges tax strictness and monetary freedom. He is cautious when speaking of strategic commitments - "not just solutions for today."

Zlatan Perucic, until recently head of the Belgrade municipal government, and now President of Beogradska Banka and a member of the Governor's council, is well-known for his driving ambition. His latest banking coup was when he beat street dealers and savings-banks by hiking the black market rate of the dinar, in spite of an earlier agreement to keep it fixed. Vanity is one his strongest features.