Never A Dull Moment

Quarrels which have spread among opposition parties, have eliminated even the theoretical possibility for a change of regime.

Zoran Djindjic is trying to wrench the leadership of the Democratic Party from an incumbent Dragoljub Micunovic. Both sides are rallying their supporters and trying to outsmart each other on questions of procedure. The showdown will take place at a special DS session and probably at the DS Convention. This could take a few weeks and result in the splitting off of the defeated branch or the passivation of the most influential member of either side. In the event of Djindjic's victory, it must be assumed that the DS will not be able to control a part of its deputies in the Federal Assembly; whereas if Micunovic wins, the party leadership will not have any control over the deputies in the Serbian Assembly.

After an open letter written by Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) members in the Democratic Movement of Serbia (DEPOS), in which they accuse SPO leader Vuk Draskovic of authoritarian behavior, all the signatories of the letter were hastily suspended from SPO membership last week. The dismissed members (Rakitic, Kastratovic, Markov) and others disagree with their party's decision, and say that they are DEPOS deputies and that only DEPOS has the right to decide their status. They will seek legal satisfaction from the federal and republican ministries of justice. According to changes made in DEPOS's Founding Act in May 1993, DEPOS deputies lose their mandates if they lose party membership and their party is a member of DEPOS. It now remains to be seen if this change has been entered into the Founding Act properly. The Federal Assembly's MandateImmunity Committee is ``waiting to get the material.'' This could take some time, and the whole issue could end up before the Constitutional Court. Until then, the SPO will not have any control over its deputies in the Federal Assembly. For the time being, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) is in a minority in the Federal Assembly, but this is of no importance in the latest situation.

Finally, the opposition as it is now, must undergo internal changes in order to break out of the vicious loser's circle. Then again, why shouldn't it change through internal clashes? It is hard to believe, however, that the current clashes will rejuvenate the opposition and change the political picture in Serbia. Now that elections are over, SPS leader and Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic is buying time.

Two names have been mentioned for important posts: Zoran Djindjic as a possible candidate for Prime Minister, and Vuk Draskovic as a possible President of the Serbian Assembly.

Djindjic's opponents accuse him of putting up his candidacy himself, while Draskovic says that DEPOS still has to discuss a potential candidate, which could mean that he considers the post of President of the Assembly incompatible with that of party leader.

This post probably awaits a DEPOS member if opposition parties manage to reach an agreement something hard to imagine. The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) gives DEPOS an advantage, but might vote for the Democrats or the Radicals; the The Democratic Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (DZVM) are even more mysterious when they say that they will support ``a candidate of a democratic orientation.'' It would be hard to believe that the Radicals would be prepared to vote for the Socialists or vice versa, as a fanning of the SPSSRS verbal war can be expected now that Milosevic has signed an agreement with Croatian President Franjo Tudjman. In spite of statements of goodwill from the DSS, there are no serious indications that the Radicals could vote for the so called 3D opposition (three democratic parties: DS, DSS and DEPOS) which have normalized relations with SRS leader Vojislav Seselj, since they regard him as an opposition member on probation. It is not clear either if the Radicals would support DEPOS.

DEPOS will not vote for a minority Socialist government. Nor will the DSS, whose leader Vojislav Kostunica is openly attacking Dragoslav Avramovic's antiinflationary program as a costly smoke screen. Even if it had wished to, the DS will not, thanks to its internal problems, vote for a SPS government. The DZVM has said that it would not ``participate in any way, in the election of a Serbian Government.'' This means that the SPS cannot jump the limit of 126 deputies, and unless someone capable of turning water into wine shows up, a new government will not be chosen.