Peace on the Horizon

It might be that peace in Yugoslavia is really near. If you do not believe in it at this moment, I wish you were woken up every morning by Avram Izrael.  On June 3rd, President of FR Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic accepted the peace proposal for concluding the Kosovo crisis, which was brought to Belgrade by international mediators, Finish President Marti Ahtisari and a special delegate of the Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Victor Chernomyrdin. It is stated in a notification from Slobodan Milosevic's cabinet that the accepted document guarantees territorial integrity and sovereignty of Yugoslavia, and acknowledges the role of the United Nations.

On the same day, just before 1 p.m., the Serbian Parliament adopted "the peace document". Numerous journalists who filled the parliament press-centre had no opportunity to meet those parliament members who discussed the subject behind the closed door. During the night before, Slobodan Milosevic informed the leaders of the main parliament parties about the document. The information service of the Serbian Parliament gave statement at the end of the session: "At today's session, representatives of the National Parliament of the Republic of Serbia considered a document brought by the EU delegate for Kosovo, President of Finland Marti Ahtisari and a special envoy of the Russian President for the Balkans, Victor Chernomyrdin, and adopted the following Resolution:

•     The National Parliament of the Republic of Serbia adopted the peace document brought by the highest representatives of EU and Russia, President of Finland Marti Ahtisari and a special envoy of the Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Victor Chernomyrdin.
•     The document confirms sovereignty and territorial integrity of our country.
•     The document acknowledges the role of the United Nations.
•     The document is, above all other importance, the foundation for peace."

Quoting the spokesman of the Russian delegate Valentin Sergeyev, agencies BETA and AFP informed that some NATO representatives could come to Belgrade in a next few days to discuss the realisation of the peace plan for Kosovo, and their arrival would indicate the end of air strikes.

Sergeyev stated that such agreement was reached between the Russian delegate Victor Chernomyrdin and the US vice-secretary of state, Strobe Talbot in a telephone call. "The NATO generals will come to Belgrade under the UN patronship. The date and the hour of their arrival in Belgrade will be the date and the hour of the end of bombardment", said Sergeyev. The NATO leaders will have a task to control the withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo, the employment of measures which will enable the safe return of refugees into that region, as well as other (non-precisely determined) measures predicted by the peace plan, Sergeyev added. He also said that Chernomyrdin and Talbot decided on sending a group of military specialists of the Russian Ministry of Defense to Yugoslavia.

The document presumes the complete withdrawal of Yugoslav military and police forces from Kosovo and the arrival of international security and civil forces under a unique command.

At the closed session, 136 parliament members voted for the proposed agreement, 74 were against, three of them were reserved, while one of them did not vote. Members of the Serbian Radical Party voted against the document, but they remained outnumbered. The Radicals have 82 members in the parliament. According to the statement of an MP given to Reuters, "the Radicals were very loud and they even threatened to beat up some members of SPO" (the Serbian Renewal Movement). At the press conference after the parliament session, the leader of the Radicals, Vojislav Seselj announced the possibility of withdrawing his party from the Serbian Government since the accepted plan is actually - "the NATO plan".

Shortly after the session, the Serbian Socialist Party (SPS) and the Yugoslav Left-wing (JUL) stated with assurance that Kosovo and Metohija are going to remain within Yugoslavia and that the UN mission is coming for the purpose of securing peace and further development in Kosovo and Metohija. The SPO leader, Vuk Draskovic stated that "we are not in a hostile relationship with the North-Atlantic Alliance". Among the party reactions (from the Radicals to the Civic Alliance) there were demands for invalidating the state of war in Serbia and for scheduling new elections at all levels.

There were rumours about misunderstandings among members of the Russian delegation regarding the content of the agreement, that the military side of the delegation was allegedly against it, but it was refuted by one of Chernomyrdin's counselors.

One deputy of the Russian Duma close to the communists, Nikolay Karitonov, stated the following: "Chernomyrdin is repeating the Munich agreement from 1938." Vladimir Zhirinovsky, red in the face, shouted that a "gas specialist" is not allowed to take part in foreign politics.

In Chellabinsk 600 Russian specialists are already being trained to go to Kosovo. BETA agency notifies that it was announced that the Russian contingent in the international peace troops in Kosovo will number 10.000 soldiers. The scope of western troops is not yet known, but it was mentioned that the Americans would send 7.000, and the Italians 4.000... The uncertainty and relatively small amount of concrete information followed this mission until its (semi)finals in Belgrade.

The beginning of the week was very tense and there were no many signs for pointing at the favourable outcome of the already complicated negotiations. The European and Russian delegates for the Balkans respectively, Marti Ahtisari and Victor Chernomyrdin, after two postponements however, did come to Belgrade on Wednesday late afternoon, and during the two hour talks, presented to Slobodan Milosevic the peace proposal which was coordinated between Russia and the West.

The meeting was of particular importance because it was the first direct contact between the West (Finish President Ahtisari is EU delegate who was given a special permission to visit Belgrade) and Yugoslavia since the beginning of NATO aggression on Yugoslavia, on March 24th. The possibility of his visit to Belgrade was announced during the last two visits by Chernomyrdin, but it did not occur due to the insufficient coordination between the Russians and the Americans about the most significant aspects of the peace plan - it was of crucial importance that they first reach the balanced proposal.

It could have happened that, on this occasion, neither Chernomyrdin nor Ahtisari came to Belgrade, since at the last minute of the marathon negotiations with the American envoy Strobe Talbot on Tuesday and Wednesday in Bonn - the American presented completely new proposals for the time allowed to the Yugoslav military and police forces to withdraw from Kosovo. The Russians threatened to depart from the negotiation process, the visit to Belgrade was postponed twice, but finally confirmed on Wednesday afternoon.
According to Western sources, Chernomyrdin and Ahtisari brought a draft of the peace plan which is supposed to be shaped into the UN Security Council Resolution.
The spokesman of State Department, James Rubin said that Ahtisari possesses "enough details" to answer Milosevic's questions about NATO terms, although Finland is not a member of that organisation.

So far, about the two most disputed elements of the agreement which would lead to the end of conflict - about the withdrawal of the Yugoslav forces from Kosovo and about the disposition of foreign troops - the following was disclosed:

The plan assumes that about 50.000 foreigners will be distributed in Kosovo - soldiers and those who serve the army. According to The New York Times thirty countries have offered 47.868 people so far. The BBC formulation goes: "NATO troops will closely collaborate with Russian soldiers". The London Guardian says that Russia and NATO will have "separate areas for their command". The famous phrase that NATO regiments must constitute the framework of the peace troops in Kosovo, simply vanished from the Western media on Thursday.

The US President, Bill Clinton said that the USA would send 7.000 people, while the Pentagon spokesman, Kenneth Bacon explained that a half of that personnel would be warlike while the other half would be of a non-military character. It was not said how many Russian soldiers would come to Kosovo, but Chernomyrdin did give a statement - and the NATO spokesman, Jamie Shea confirmed - that the command will be paired.

That matter is not entirely clear. Chernomyrdin said that "the Russian troops will operate independently from NATO", that both the Russians and NATO will command their troops separately, and that the relationship between the two contingents will be regulated with a special contract; whereas Shea stated that they will both operate on the same principles (adding this: "to see how we are going to get away with this").

Before coming to Belgrade, Ahtisari mentioned the Bosnian model, the details of which were also mentioned in the Western newspapers on Thursday - the general command belongs to NATO, while the Russian contingent has a certain independence. The problem seems to be the general command over those troops - the Russians (still) insist on the United Nations, the West insists on NATO.

The Western newspapers add that the Russians made a considerable compromise also by allowing NATO to define the national structure of its contingent - which means that they accepted even the main aggressors among the peace troops - the Americans and the Britons.

That solution is similar to earlier proposals that during the peace operation Kosovo should be divided into zones, and that Russian soldiers should guard those zones which are considered of a greater interest to the Serbs, while the zones considered to be more Albanian should be settled by NATO.

However, on Thursday, the Guardian published "the concern of the ethnic Albanian refugees and the KLA" about "the concentration of Russian troops in certain zones of Kosovo", because it would de facto be the division of Kosovo". "The leader of Kosovo Albanians", Hashim Taqi was cited: "We are categorically refusing the idea of separate zones of the international forces. We cannot accept the disposition of non-NATO troops onany part of Kosovo." The British newspaper favours the opinion that Taqi's "concern could be softened if American and other NATO troops were disposed in the areas where the Russians dominate." However, if the USA reached a satisfactory agreement with the Russians about the paired command, they would probably have sufficient means to persuade Taqi to accept what is necessary.

Talking about the withdrawal of Yugoslav military and police forces from Kosovo, The New York Times published on Thursday that "Chernomyrdin was persistent in demanding a break in bombardment", but "the given arguments convinced him that a break would not make Milosevic more flexible".

According to the European diplomatic sources, Russia agreed for the first time that the Yugoslav forces should withdraw from Kosovo and that only during that withdrawal the air strikes should be halted. The American newspaper adds that "a few hundreds of our security forces could go back to Kosovo, but only after the implementation of international peace troops in that province. Therefore, according to the Western interpretation, the complete army and police should leave Kosovo - which was, of course, not written in the NATO terms, nor was it mentioned among the G-8 principles for the termination of war. The American media also write that the peace plan brought by Ahtisari and Chernomyrdin contains the information about how many days Milosevic has got to prove that he really obeyed the "quick and precise" schedule for the withdrawal, but that information was not disclosed. That is why it was stated precisely that NATO is ready to cease the bombing when the withdrawal begins "in a confidential and obvious manner" - with a possibility to advance it if it becomes necessary.

Chernomyrdin, as the Western sources broadcast, estimated that the most important is "to reach an agreement between Yugoslavia and NATO about the withdrawal of Serbian forces and about the time needed for the disposition of peace troops in Kosovo".

According to Glas Javnosti, part of that deal is already done: the beginning of the action of withdrawal of our forces will be signed by Chief of the General Staff of Yugoslav Army, Dragoljub Ojdanic and the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Wesley Clark, after which the cease of air strikes would follow. As the Politika journalist from Germany said, Chernomyrdin's counselor Valentin Sergeyev stated in Bonn that the withdrawal, the end of air strikes and the arrival of international peace troops would begin at about the same time.

On Thursday evening, many of these perplexities and contradictory information were elucidated and confirmed. At this moment, the global direction, importance and range of the agreement are evident.

For the citizens of Yugoslavia it would, no doubt, be ideal if peace commenced - at once.