In Solitary Confinement

The great Serbian hope that it could, with the help of the previous interest zones in the Balkans, divide the European countries before it divides Yugoslavia - has proved to be an illusion. Serbia is doggedly pursuing the politics aimed at establishing the state of affairs from before 1914 in a desperate attempt to change the outcome of the First World War. Banging its head against a brick wall, it reminds one of the mental hospital patient who has withdrawn from reality into the world of his own.

The Serbian nationalists in Belgrade cannot bring themselves to proclaim Serbia sovereign. This creates great confusion with the foreign ambassadors, since after January 15 1992 there could be representing the interests of their respective states in the independent Yugoslav states - in Belgrade which does not recognize any of them. Thus socialists have no choice: they will either continue the war for the territories, or they will form a state along the Belgrade-Sarajevo-Titograd triangle. No one in Europe will recognize this state, unless Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina become sovereign. The socialist Serbian finds this unacceptable. Suffice it to say that if Montenegro asks Brussels to be recognized as an independent state, the Belgrade plan concerning the creation of Great Serbia will fall to pieces.

Bosnia and Herzegovina should not at present insist on recognition. It would be much better if it could wait a while. It represents a controversial issue for the Serbian and Croatian nationalists, although Zagreb would be much less affected by this than Belgrade, since Belgrade stands to lose some of its territory. It dares not think of conquering new territories at present.

Izetbegovic (the president of B&H) would make a grave mistake to ask for the recognition of B&H before Serbia proclaims its independence and decides on its borders. Karadzic's Serbs (the president of SDS / The Serbian Democratic Party of Bosnia/) have no reason to threat since their interests should be adequately accommodated - they could be given the territorial autonomy, or alternatively the entire B&H would be "regionalized".

It is no good advocating the politics of independence of Sarajevo today if it leads to new internal conflicts and the justification of the war expansionist politics of Belgrade. Bosnia can wait, but Belgrade has no time to waste. Every second of peace means a day less in power for Milosevic. Regardless of the new power distribution of the Yugoslav territory, this dispute could be solved if the states were to be linked by the common currency and customs. The great nationalist illusion that the independent state will pursue better economic policy would only mean the loss of time for doing away with the socialist heritage. No one dares, even now, discard with dinar, the common currency, which point to the formation of the common monetary policy, a common budget, a small central army and the unified judicial system.

The minute the European Community recognizes any of the Yugoslav republics, Serbia will no longer be able to keep its intentions secret by respecting the decisions of the so-called Presidency and the military headquarters. Europe will no longer recognize Yugoslavia and its federal organs. Serbia can continue with the war under the pretext that it is fighting to preserve Yugoslavia only until January 15. After that date it will have to go it alone. If it should be so foolish as to declare war to Croatia or to any of the other republics, it will not only experience the European military blow, but Europe could also withdraw the national currency from Serbia as opposed to other Yugoslav states. Europe could create a new currency for the group of independent new states, or it could exchange their dinars for marks, francs, pounds and liras. Serbia would in that case be excluded from the formation of the monetary union. It would then condemn itself to solitary confinement and it could go on printing dinars till Doomsday. Its citizens would meet with the worst possible fate. Serbia would be cooking in the boiling pot in its own juices made of political amateurs, looters, generals, refugees and the impoverished multitude. So we will have the following: sky-high inflation, massive unemployment and nothing to spend your money on.

If Europe were to ban Serbia from using its national currency as opposed to other Yugoslav states, Serbia is doomed. But the solution could yet be found. It is the duty of Serbia to proclaim its independence and then all the other Yugoslav states, without redrawing the borders. Although Serbia has already signed the Vance agreement on sending the peace- keepers to the rebellious Serbian regions in Croatia, it will now have to seek the establishment of international protectorates in these regions and proclaim the customs free zone. The desolate people from the affected regions could then enjoy greater political stability than either Serbia or Croatian after the war ends. It will also have a more rapid economic growth.

Serbia would then offer an agreement concerning the creation of monetary and customs union for all the Yugoslav states, and the Army would be transformed into a small central army. The formation of the Serbian army would then follow, as well as the establishment of local armies in the newly

proclaimed independent states. Serbia could ask for the reconstruction credits in return.

If the socialists were powerful enough to pull it off, they would stay in power for the next 1000 years. But even if they tried, they would find it hard to answer the following question: does anyone believe them?