Bypassing Serbia

Some ten days ago, the Belgrade daily "Borba" carried some information which deserves to be repeated in full. Mirko Klarin reported from Brussels that "European Union representatives and those of five Balkan countries, had concluded an agreement over the weekend in Thessaloniki, on two new 'customs corridors' which would speed up and facilitate road transports and transit through the Balkans. This, in fact, is the beginning of a long-term program aimed at finding traffic routes which would bypass the former and current Yugoslavia, something 'Borba' wrote about first in early February.

During the two-day meeting of EU transport and customs experts and those of five Balkan countries (Greece, Albania, Macedonia, Romania and Bulgaria), it was agreed that money from the Phare program would be used for the widening and improvement of two traffic routes. The first starts from the border crossing at Nuckelsdorf (Austria), i.e. Hegyesalom (Hungary), via Romania and Bulgaria to Pomakhona in Greece. The second starts at the Albanian port of Durres and leads via Skopje to Sofia. The new routes are good short-term solutions, and will alleviate some of the problems created by the embargo, said US Customs Attache in Vienna, Ivan Taborski, who attended the Thessaloniki meeting in his capacity as an expert on transport problems in the Balkans.

Along with these short-term solutions, the EU in cooperation with the former Yugoslavia's neighboring countries is preparing a long-term 'Pan-European plan for the development of the traffic infrastructure', aimed at 'identifying a series of multi-modal corridors which will replace the trans-Yugoslav route'. The matter concerns corridors which will allow for a combination of road, railway and river transport, from Austria to Greece and from Albania to Bulgaria and Ukraine, bypassing the territory of the former and the current Yugoslavia.

The EU, obviously, does not think that the states which have risen out of the ashes of the former Yugoslavia (with the exception of Macedonia), could, in the near future reclaim their role of 'cross-roads of the world'."

Compared to the indifference of the domestic media and a certain amount of malicious glee, the Europeans who met in Brussels are behaving as if they have "seriously embarked on the issue, and that the matter does not concern political pressure".

Domestic experts agree with the assessment that unless sanctions against Yugoslavia last a very long time, then investments in alternative traffic routes are simply profitless. Bypassing Serbia, i.e. the Horgos-Belgrade-Nis-Skopje route going on south, or the Horgos-Belgrade-Nis-Dimitrovgrad route and further on east, requires investments totalling 3-3.5 billion dollars for the construction of a trunk road through Romania, and as much for a road through Bulgaria. Therefore, at least six billion dollars are needed, while results will be visible, under the most optimal conditions, in 6-8 years.

"Of course, as far as politicians are concerned, anything is possible, so that even Serbia can be bypassed", said Branimir Ujdur speaking to VREME. He is one of the team of traffic experts urging a trunk road through Serbia, and a man with 25 years' experience in the business. "But, the bankers will be rational. In the end, capital will decide, and not politicians."

It must not be forgotten that the "Brotherhood and Unity" (i.e. Zagreb-Belgrade) highway was the product of an economic-political compromise between Europe and Yugoslavia's internal interests. Had European criteria been respected, the road would have followed the Danube to the Hungarian-Yugoslav border, instead of going down to Sentilj (Slovenia) and then on through Socialist Yugoslavia. Considering border hold-ups and other procedures, loss of time is characteristic of all routes passing through East European states. If the journey starts in Northern Germany, e.g. from Hamburg and the destination is Istanbul, a route via Hamburg-Berlin-Prague-Vienna-Budapest-Bucharest-Istanbul seems the most favorable at first glance. But, if we know that this route involves seven border crossings, and time spent waiting to cross a border is an important factor..."

Ironically, and without referring to historical irony, on the assumption that the "Brotherhood and Unity" highway does open, a traveller going through the former Yugoslavia will have to cross seven borders belonging to the newly-formed states (or quasi-states), e.g. - Austria/Slovenia, Slovenia/Croatia, Croatia/Republic of Serb Krajina at Novska, Republic of Serb Krajina/Croatia at Okucani, Croatia/Republic of Serb Krajina in Western Srem, Republic of Serb Krajina/Yugoslavia at Lipovac, Serbia/Bulgaria at Dimitrovgrad. Former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic's attempt in autumn 1992 at opening the "Brotherhood and Unity" highway, under the name "The Road of Peace", failed ignominiously because Zdravko Zecevic, Republic of Serb Krajina PM at the time, torpedoed the idea claiming: "That part of the highway passing through Krajina is under its full control and sovereignty and no arrangements concerning the highway can be made without the participation of the Republic of Serb Krajina government."

One part of the international loan for the completion of the "Brotherhood and Unity" highway was signed on June 26, 1991 (the money was earmarked for building a bypass around Belgrade. Today, the little work that was done on this road is sinking into the mud). It is possible that the work has been stopped. The contract was the last one signed in the name of the now former Socialist Yugoslavia. On the same day Slovenia proclaimed its independence.

VREME's collocutors at the time, Petar Radenovic and Nenad Stojicevic from the Ministry of Traffic and Communications, Tihomir Djordjevic from the Belgrade Institute for Roads and Ljubisa Kuzovic a professor at the Faculty of Traffic, all agreed that the interruption of traffic on the highway, due to the disintegration of the country, was tantamount to a European "traffic catastrophe". There was some optimism at the time, just as there is today, in estimates that the costs of bypassing Yugoslavia would be too great, time consuming, and that the conflict would be short-lived.

Today - less than three years later, someone in Europe has realized that waiting for the former Yugoslavs to see reason, is a waste of time. It is much cheaper to bypass Yugoslavia, even if the move is just a political threat. But, perhaps it is more than that. All the above mentioned experts and some new ones agree that the decision made by the EU and the five Balkan countries, could turn out to be a bum investment.

But then again, it might not. Europe's agreement to allow the "Brotherhood and Unity" highway to pass through Yugoslavia, instead of following a shorter route, resulted in consequences of which we are no longer aware, and have forgotten: crossing the border was no longer a privilege or crime, the outside world did exist, letting the world pass through one's country was a very lucrative business. Socialist Yugoslavia's income from road tolls in the country's final years reached 150-200 million dollars. Of this sum Serbia earned 100 million dollars in 1990, i.e., 80 million in net income. Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria will certainly fight for Europe's plan.

Paradoxically, Europe's decision on bypassing Yugoslavia, could help resurrect "Brotherhood and Unity". To the very end, just before Socialist Yugoslavia disintegrated, all data showed that transverse traffic (with this traffic in mind, Slovenia constructed the Maribor-Trieste route, and Croatia the Zagreb-Karlovac-Rijeka road, while Serbia refrained from building a Belgrade-Bar highway) barely reaches a fourth of longitudinal, transit traffic. In other words, pay, pass through, and bon voyage. If the detouring of all the former Yugoslav republics really starts, then "Brotherhood and Unity" could have a function: that of linking together all our new states.

"Now is the time to finish the Belgrade-Horgos and Nis-Dimitrovgrad trunk roads, and to start on the Belgrade-Bucharest highway," said Branimir Ujdur. "Regardless of how long sanctions may last, once they are lifted, all drivers in Europe will know which road is shorter, faster and cheaper." His claim is based on a survey among drivers of trans-continental trucks: two-thirds to three-fourths don't think there will be much profit in bypassing Serbia. Indirect proof of this is the fact that even under sanctions, international road traffic is bringing in enough money to complete the Belgrade-Horgos highway by the end of this year, using a cement-concrete layer instead of tarmac. Where this money is going, is another question. Somebody must know who is in charge of it. It remains to be seen what interests are at stake.

Branimir Ujdur is convinced that now, when planes are not flying, it is necessary to build not only roads, but another runway at Surcin airport. Asked: "With what money?", he answers: "By giving concessions." When reminded that the country is under sanctions, Ujdur points out that there is another obstacle, and that it has to do with domestic legislature, left over from Socialist Yugoslavia. Namely, the law which states that concessions can be issued only to foreign firms is still in force (and foreign firms are forced to observe the sanctions). "When a state for some reason cannot go into debt, then the giving of concessions, or the "build, exploit and hand back to the state" arrangement is the only way to build an infrastructure. Concession holders are not states, but private associations which take credit from private banks, and compared to the state, they are more flexible." In other words, firms have a defined interest and way of earning money, in spite of sanctions. Therefore, the only thing that remains to be determined, is if it is in our interest for the whole world to bypass us and leave us in peace, or not.