Happy Together

The cease fire signed by the Croatian and Serb Krajina delegations in the Russian Embassy in Zagreb, has been greeted by Knin, Zagreb, Belgrade, Moscow, Washington and the European Union. In short, everybody is happy.

Hrvoje Sarinic, the head of the Croatian delegation said: ``The Agreement is the first step towards a normalization of relations in the whole territory of the Republic of Croatia.'' Republic of Serb Krajina Foreign Minister Slobodan Jarcevic commenting his 18th. cease fire negotiations, said that this time the talks hade been ``crowned with success, since the armies would not fight as of this day.''

Both sides, the Croats and the Krajina Serbs, underscore their belief that the cease fire will hold since world powers are the guarantors. Sarinic stressed that the cease fire would be observed ``because it is drafted in such a way that its observance guarantees its efficiency,'' while Jarcevic believes that conflicts will not flare up again because of UNPROFORcontrolled buffer zones. If the cease fire modalities are analyzed, there really does seem reason for optimism. Mortars and antiaircraft guns are being withdrawn ten kilometers from the demarcation lines and the guns and tanks twenty kilometers. Where this is not possible, they are being removed from positions and stored. By April 8 at the latest, troops on either side will be withdrawn at least one kilometer from the line of fire, so that direct fire will not be possible. There will not be ``any military, paramilitary, militia or police personnel from either side'' in the zones created after the withdrawal of troops and arms, and these zones will come under the protection of UNPROFOR, who will have full freedom of movement in order that they might oversee the implementation of the cease fire. Joint committees will be set up at all levels with the task of determining eventual cease fire violations. Both sides agree that they will not respond to provocations. The agreement foresees the opening of 18 crossings along the line of demarcation under UNPROFOR's control.

The negotiations managed to resolve all territorial claims which had undermined earlier CroatianSerb Krajina talks. Admiral Dusan Rakic, head of the Serb Krajina delegation said that both sides had reached an agreement by making concessions. Croatia will continue to control the ``Peruca'' dam area, the Miljevacki plateaux, part of the Maslenica gorge and ``Zemunik'' airport, while the Krajina Serbs will return the village of Skrabnja near Zadar. On the other hand, the Croatian Army will withdraw from the part of Mt. Velebit around Obrovac, and from the villages of Islam Grcki, Smokovic and Kasic.

The cease fire agreement does not contain any ambiguities. However, the reasons for its signing remain controversial. The latest peace initiatives by the US and Russia do not leave any space for war options; it is more worthwhile to ``cooperate.'' Depending on the balance of forces on the international scene, things could change later, with new demands being voiced. So that it is not surprising that the two sides interpret the agreement differently, or rather its capacity as a final solution of the conflict. Speaking before Parliament (Sabor), member of the Croatian delegation Slavko Degoricija said that this was ``the start of reintegrating UNPA zones into the Republic of Croatia.'' Sarenic insisted that the cease fire was a prerequisite condition for the setting up of economic links, and if the disastrous economic situation in Krajina and Serbia were considered, the matter was certainly to Croatia's advantage. After its withdrawal from BosniaHerzegovina, Zagreb is counting on American (and Russian) support for its idea of a solution.

Knin, on the other hand, is trying to present the agreement as a step towards the recognition of Krajina's statehood. The way Republic of Serb Krajina President Milan Martic interprets things, the value of the agreement lies in the fact that ``Krajina has been recognized in a manner of speaking, and recognized as a reality,'' since ``we are no longer looked upon as local powers of authority, but are treated as a side which is in conflict with another state.'' What the Krajina Serbs are really after can be gleaned from a statement made by Krajina Serb deputy Interior Minister and one of the negotiators, Aleksandar Draca. He views the agreement as the setting up of a demarcation line along the lines of the ``Cyprus model.'' The possibility that Krajina could carry on like the ``Turkish Republic of Cyprus'' which has been existing unrecognized for the past twenty years, has been confirmed by UN SecretaryGeneral Boutros BoutrosGhali's spokesman Joe Seals. Apart from admitting that the UN do not have the strength to fulfill their role in the agreement to the letter, Seals expressed concern regarding the legalization of the current status of the Krajina territories in Croatia, and stressed that the agreement had just been signed and that there would still be many discussions on all its consequences.

The way things stand, the ``Cyprus model'' does not seem all that far fetched. The USRussian peace initiative does not leave much space for prolonging the status quo, and there are no cracks in their joint stand on the resolving of the problem, as could be seen from what Russian Envoy Vitaly Churkin said, during the most critical moments in the negotiations. Washington's official stand is that Krajina is part of Croatia, and as far as Moscow is concerned, it is not contesting the point.

US Ambassador to Zagreb Peter Galbright, said that the agreement was only the first phase of a process which should allow Serbs in Croatia to attain a high degree of political, economic and cultural autonomy. The second phase would be the opening of traffic routes and the setting up of economic links, thus bringing to mind similarities with Vance's almost forgotten plan from 1991. The speed with which that plan was realized is well known, so that Croatia's urgency in resolving political issues should not come as a surprise, as shouldn't Knin's efforts at prolonging matters. But, it seems that time is running out. The second round of talks will deal with the opening of the ZagrebBelgrade highway, the construction of the Maslenica Bridge, the opening of the oil pipelines, etc. The resolving of these problems cannot be put off indefinitely. It is believed that business is the best antidote for overheated bellicose brains, so that both sides will find themselves facing a lot of international pressure to do so, without many possibilities for backing out.

However, the leaders of the warring sides find it much easier to reach a mutual agreement, than persuade their public that a final agreement had to be reached after three years of bloodshed. This is why all look to economy as the solution. Trade, albeit under international protection, is the best way of changing the people's views, and making them see that the other side isn't as bad as was claimed only yesterday. After the signing, Martic said that the agreement would help further tourism in Croatia and Krajina's economic recovery, and the setting up of a state governed by law. If speculations that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic has left Krajina to face its fate alone, prove true, then he will be the one asking Krajina Serbs if they prefer to wage a war they can't win, or live and work in peace in a federal Croatia.

But, a lot of time will pass before a lasting solution to all conflicts in the former Yugoslavia is found.