His Holiness In Belgrade?

The only one to oppose the Pope's visit to Belgrade was the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC). But Archbishop of Belgrade Perko says both Patriarch Pavle and President Milosevic agreed.

Pope John Paul II expressed a wish to visit Belgrade, Zagreb and Sarajevo and pray for peace, as he did in many other places of human suffering from Auschwitz to Hiroshima. The only undisputable thing for the time being is his wish, and the fact that no official invitation has been sent. The Pope, who is the head of the Catholic Church and also (in interstate relations) the head of the Holy See, can come to Belgrade only if invited by state officialsPresident Lilic, and local bishops (who would most probably have nothing against the visit).

To meet church standards, the Pope is usually invited by Catholic bishops of a specific state. Exceptions are countries like Switzerland, whose majority church is not Catholic and is (like in Britain) linked to the monarchy. The invitation was made by a Catholic archbishop, on behalf of non-Catholic bishops of Switzerland.

But things are different in this state. First, it's unclear if this is the same state whose leader Josip Broz Tito had invited Pope Paul VI to visit Yugoslavia. The Pope is not the same, but then, this is not the same state either, but one with a different reputation, different appearance and ambitions on the international political stage. And depending on interpretations as to what state we live in today, this invitation is still valid or isn't. One of the experts who dealt with the dilemma was Professor Svetozar Stojanovic, special advisor to former president Dobrica Cosic. During his visit to Rome, he conveyed Cosic's invitation to the Pope to visit Belgrade.

Diplomatic analysts say the important thing is that both sides want the visit to take place, regardless of whether the invitation was formally sent or which side made the first move.

Tito's invitation was renewed in 1980, first at ministerial level and then during a visit to Rome in December that year by president of the SFRY at the time, Cvijetin Mijatovic.

But six months before that, in May 1980, Pope John Paul II addressed UNICEF and the Yugoslav government as the host of the UNICEF General Assembly (that was to be held in Belgrade in September-October 1980), saying that he would like to speak before the conference. The Yugoslav government agreed, only the foreign minister was opposed.

Of course, everything would have been easier if the Pope had had the opportunity to come to Belgrade 14 years ago. In those days Sava Centar was crowded with world dignitaries of all vocations. The war between Iran and Iraq broke out the very day the conference opened.

Four years later, the Vatican voiced a strong wish to organize a visit to Yugoslavia in October 1984, during the traditional pilgrimage to Marija Bistrica. That was the time of ``coordinated stands between the republics and provinces'' and the orthodox parts of the country were not consulted, nor did they interfere in such decisions. The stand of the Serbian Orthodox Church was carefully sounded, but it was up to the Catholic republics to decide. Slovenia said ``yes'' a priori, Bosnia-Herzegovina agreed to whatever the majority might decide. Croatia was strongly opposed.

The Vatican was officially informed that the previous invitation was still valid, but that it would be realized when the conditions were ripe.

``Conditions'' were mentioned during the lengthy talks that same year between Yugoslav officials and Vatican diplomats, but not all of them were acceptable to the two sides. The condition mentioned today again, that the Pope should visit Jasenovac and pay tribute to the victims of the Fascist terror was never disputed by the Holy See, but by Belgrade and Zagreb. This could be the reason for Croatia's opposition to the Pope's visit. This could also be the reason that the present authorities in Zagreb are rushing to reconstruct the Jasenovic memorial.

The Vatican's interest in visiting Belgrade, Zagreb and Sarajevo exists and is visible at the level of its international activities aimed at the ``settling of global human problems:'' war conflicts, illness, famine... Pope John Paul IIwho, like his predecessors John XXIII and Paul VI has declared himself as one struggling for peace and freedom will find it much easier to struggle for peace in the Middle East, the Persian Gulf or any other place on earth. The former Yugoslavia, although in his nearest neighbourhood, has proved to be a blind spot burdened with historical and recent historical prejudice.

Reports that the Pope will visit Belgrade next September speak for themselves. At a time when all relevant political factors in the world are competing in visiting Belgrade, Zagreb or Sarajevo on their peace missions, September seems a thousand years away. Then again, the Vatican, well aware of all current obstacles, might wish to announce in its own, subtle way, that it is interested and probably engaged (through less visible diplomatic moves) in bringing the situation here back to normal.

As for the local politicians, perhaps they too would be interested in the Vatican's presence at public and clandestine talk ssimply called the peace process for which they apparently care.

This is also the context of the brief, but meaningful statements issued after Milosevic's meetings with the Pope's envoy Monsignor Palio, Vatican diplomats in Geneva etc.

On the other hand, the Pope wishes to visit Belgrade first, and then Zagreb and Sarajevo. The visit to Belgrade is the sine qua non of the entire project.

Interpretations by the Catholic Church that the Pope (if invited by the Yugoslav state authorities) would not come to Belgrade unless the SPC accepted his visit should be taken verbatim. The Vatican knows where and how deep lie the roots of Yugoslav misunderstandings, animosities and hatred. The Pope's wish to visit Belgrade can still be seen as a hope that old fears can be overcome.

``We forgive, but we don't forget'' were the words spoken by Patriarch German during his service at the reconstructed Orthodox church in Jasenovac, the site of a concentration camp where many Serbs, Jews, Romanies and others were killed.

In a statement published in the SPC organ ``Pravoslavlje,'' on March 15 this year, the SPC says that it ``is informing the public that it did not invite Pope John Paul II to visit Belgrade.'' The Pope can come at the invitation of President Milosevic, but it would be inappropriate for him to come against the wish of the Orthodox Church, the statement added. However, space was left for other, perhaps different formulations that could be adopted at the SPC's regular assembly in mid-May. In the meantime, Milosevic may find himself persuading church dignitaries that old wounds should not be forgotten, but that the goal justifies the means.

In Croatia, an invitation to the Pope to visit Zagreb was one of the first moves made by the young independent state. The Pope did not go. He prayed instead, for all the suffering people, irregardless of their faith. And once the dust of everyday politics settles, the fact will remain that the Catholic Church's interest in these territories always was and will be a single Yugoslavia, like the one currently envisioned only by the League of CommunistsMovement for Yugoslavia.

It is not all that important if the Pope will visit Yugoslavia in September. What is important, is that before that time, all politicians do their utmost to stop the fighting, ease tensions and normalize the lives of the people of all religions and nations. The Serbian Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church could help in the process, leaving aside debates as to whether and how much they are responsible for developments here. The two churches are maintaining contact. Top SPC officials Metropolitan Amfilohije Radovic and Episcope Irinej Bulovic recently paid an official visit to the Catholic Church World Center in Rome.

The Pope's visit could mean much more to Milosevic (and Tudjman as well) than to the Pope himself. It would certainly be useful in diverting public attention from sensational developments at home. September, however, is a long way off. Svetlana Djuric

Kresimir Zubak, Croat Republic of Herzeg-Bosnia

Date and place of birth: November 29, 1947, in Doboj, SR Bosnia-Herzegovina at that time, now the Serb Republic in BH

Known as: A relatively anonimous politician who was propelled to the post of Bosnian Croat leader after the withdrawal of Mate Boban. He signed the Washington agreement with BH Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic and is the Bosnian Croats' candidate for the first president of a Bosnia-Herzegovina federation. However, it is unclear how much power he really yeilds, causing doubts among the Croats and the Moslems.

Moslem doubts: Bosnian Croat leaders are usually appointed from Zagreb. Zubak, as the federal president would be an extension of Croatia's leadership, something Sarajevo is very distrustful of. The SDA has therefore proposed that Alija Izetbegovic remain the head of state.

Bosnian Croat doubts: Not being one of Herzegovina's hardliners, it is feared that Zubak might be too ready to make concessions and compromise. The hardliners have agreed to form a federation with the Moslems, but only if it later joined a confederation with Croatia. Their suspicions are confirmed by Zubak's statement that the Serbs' joining the federation would not harm Croatian interests (but, the fact is, that in that case, the federation would surely fail).

Main reason for doubts: A new Croat-Moslem alliance was made for reasons of self-interest and under international pressure. Sarajevo is closing a front, and Zagreb is trying to escape trade sanctions. A durable solution is still to be reached, and many view Zubak as expendable and of limited influence.

So, Zubak has a problem: The Croats' insistence on Zubak for President and the Moslems' rejection, are jeopardizing the federation, as well as the purpose of Zubak political engagement. Radicals among the Bosnian Croats are watching for any signs of indulgence to brand him a traitor.

Zubak the politician: Shortly before the Bosnian war, Zubak was one of the founders of the Club of Intellectuals, a supranational, non party organization devoted to peace and coexistence. He was badly wounded as a member of the 110th HVO (Croatian Defense Council) brigade, in a battle against Bosnian Serb troops in Usora. Although not a member of the HDZ, he was elected Justice Minister of Herzeg-Bosnia, and later vice-president of the HVO.

Qualifications: Graduated from the School of Law, Sarajevo University. Before the war, he was a judge in Doboj.

Reputation: Bosnian Serbs blew up his house when they seized Doboj on May 3, 1992. In spite of this, he headed a number of delegations at Croat-Serb talks in Doboj. Zubak is a pragmatic politician, rather than a warmongering hawk.

What should he be wary of: Croatia's leadership has been inconsistent in its Bosnian policy. All Bosnian Croat leaders so far (Davor Perinovic, Stjepan Kljujic and Mate Boban) fell victims to Zagreb's political maneuvers. Zubak might meet the same fate.

Critics say: Zubak is a weak political figure who carries out someone else's orders, a man who will do everything to satisfy his master in order to stay in power, regardless of national interests.

Supporters say: Zubak is only an extension of Croatia's policy in Bosnia, one who understands that Herzeg-Bosnia had to be created so that the authorities and the army could be organized. Now that a CroatMoslem federation is imminent, his pragmatism and readiness to negotiate along with his political anonimity, which saved his political career, make Zubak the ideal solution.