The Hopes Of The Poor

The ``Credibel Bank'' public research department carried out a survey among 500 households in ten Belgrade municipalities, in order to find out what the people think of the domestic economic situation, the present and the future. The answers to economic questions always contained political and social comments.

The last question, which in fact summed up the survey was: ``If you had the opportunity, would you live elsewhere?'' Less than 10% said they were thinking of leaving, while 45.1% replied: ``No, this is my country.'' Last year, however, 63.6% of the polled gave this answer.

Where have a third of those who do not wish to leave their country gone? The simplest answer is probably the one closest to the truth. The chaos created by hyperinflation last year, helped make up people's minds for them. Answers to the question: ``Can an economic program help us overcome the crisis?,'' points to this, even though it seems contradictory at first glance. A year ago, 41% of those surveyed believed in such a program, today this number has jumped to 75.3%. The increase in trust is due to a great difference between circumstances today and last year. Last year prime ministers with highly dubious reputations dominated the scene. Today we have the new dinar, dubbed the ``Avram'' after National Bank of Yugoslavia Governor Dragoslav Avramovic, who is optimistic about its future.

A year ago the citizens were prepared to sacrifice 25.6% of their income for the general well-being, while the number has dropped to 12.4% this year. Some will interpret this as a rise in egoism, which is understandable during chaotic times, others will seek an answer in the fact that 95% of the polled said that their households have become impoverished in the past year.

That poverty is all-pervading can be deducted from the fact that 72.6% of those surveyed live off their income or pensions, and that only 7.1% have some savings, (13.2% earn extra income, 4.7 % are supported, and 2.1% live thanks to smuggling). To the question: ``Where would you open a savings account?,'' 62% said: ``I wouldn't.''

Nearly 15% of those surveyed believe that this year will be ``much better'' than last year, 52.2% said that this year would be ``better.'' Compared to them, 21.8% expect things to be worse this year, 6.1% believe that things will be ``much worse'' (4.9% do not expect any changes). All in all, 67.1% believe that some kind of progress for the better will be made this year.

However, the question: ``When will the program for overcoming the economic crisis start yielding results?,'' received the following answers. ``Immediately'' said 11% of the polled, while 30.7% think that better days await us in a year's time, 18.4% said ``in several years,'' and a large group of cautious answers22.2%, think that it is ``uncertain'' when the crisis will be a thing of the past. ``When will matters take a turn for the better?'' got the following answers: 17.6% said by the end of the year, 36.4% think in a few years' time, 8.6% think that ``decades'' will pass, 30.6% are ``uncertain,'' and 6.8% said ``never.''

The list of events which could bring about a turnabout, is headed with the lifting of sanctions (69.4%), the end of the war (67%), while 42.2% believe that a change of government is a prerequisite condition before things can start getting better (the total is greater than 100, because it was possible to give several answers). It was not specified which government, since at the time of the survey the new Serbian government had not been chosen, so that the demand for a change of government probably refers to a change of policy. Finally, if the new Serbian government or the old federal government start thinking of ``the people'' through public opinion surveys instead of basing their views on demagogic cliches, this survey will offer them ample reasons to reconsider certain moves and intentions. Answering the question: ``What should the program which will help us out of the crisis be based on?,'' led the citizens to put their hopes in aid given by ``our successful emigrants'' and state-sponsored public works. However, three times as many of those surveyed believe in ``foreign aid'' than they do in aid from ``our emigrants,'' and this can be viewed as a wish for a normalization of relations with the world, especially economic ones. It is interesting that as many as 43.2% of the polled, believe that the initial step in overcoming the crisis lies in ``drawing a line, and punishing those who are responsible,'' while others believe that ``the most competent should be given a chance.'' Without further research it would not be wise to conclude that urging a society in which competency would be the main criteria, is one close to Socialist and especially Communist policy, at least in their present interpretation of Socialist and Communist policies.