Is Rugova's Arres Imminent

Radical circles in Serbia have called on several occasions lately, for the arrest of Ibrahim Rugova, leader of ethnic Albanians. Analysts say Milosevic's regime wants to use the trials of the alleged paramilitary Albanian organizations and Kosovo's defence ministry to discredit Rugova and his Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). The trials are to prove that the ``defence minister'' and his ``general staff'' acted under Rugova's orders, which would further allow the Serbian authorities to outlaw the LDK and arrest its leader.

Why is the question of Rugova' s arrest becoming topical again?

A tacit status quo has been holding in Kosovo since 1990, especially after the outbreak of war in Croatia and Bosnia. Both the Serbian and Albanian sides wished to avert the war Serbia did not want to open another front, ethnic Albanians were inferior militarily and the parallel political organizing in the province has been tolerated.

But the parallel systems in Kosovo cannot exist for ever. Analyses indicate that tensions in Kosovo will grow again and might even turn into an armed conflict as soon as the status quo conditions disappear.

In Serbia, both the regime and the opposition are aware that they face serious challenges in Kosovo. But nobody seems capable of coming up with a solution for unravelling the Gordian knot in Kosovo and keeping the province part of Serbia. Serbia, which cannot afford a new war adventure, and expect to get away with it, is now trying to secure the best possible positions at future talks on Kosovo.

Concessions offered by the Serb side in Bosnia were made conditional to an easing up of pressure over the Kosovo issue. Milosevic offered peace in Bosnia in return for guarantees that Kosovo would remain part of Serbia.

Milosevic's strategic ingeniousness shows clearly in the Kosovo game. To put Rugova in jail would fit into his arrogant and risky policy, to which he resorts whenever in trouble or under pressure. Such drastic measures usually apall the public and his opponents, but make the fish come into his net.

The regime in Serbia doesn't want internationally sponsored talks on Kosovo. Or as Milosevic puts it, Kosovo is Serbia's internal question. What Serbia wants is to remove the Kosovo issue from the list of conditions for the lifting of UN sanctions.

Milosevic is aware that the West will eventually raise the question of Kosovo and make him accept Rugova as the ethnic Albanian negotiator. And he doesn't like it. He doesn't like things being imposed on him and he's trying to come to terms his way. His way of opening an issue is to arrest and ban in this case that of Rugova and the LDK. Such is the logic followed by the regime. It is only a matter of finding the best opportunity before the wheels are put into motion.

With Rugova in jail or in isolation, the problem of his release would overshadow the issue of Kosovo's status. The regime in Belgrade also hopes that Rugova's arrest and the ban of the LDK would lead to a split in the ethnic Albanian movement and weaken the Albanians' negotiating positions.

Nevertheless, the problem of Kosovo is not all that simple and cannot be squeezed easily into previously prepared schemes. The arrest of Rugova would be a great challenge for the world too.

Rugova's arrest would trigger off international interference, a wave of protests and ethnic Albanian activities, all of which would be far more likely to propel Kosovo towards independence than help Serbia retain it. Milosevic must beware that the whole scheme could boomerang.