Ante and Avram

The economic chaos such as we had in February this year, and the severing of the consciously created practice which allowed the mafiosi, war profiteers and others to have ideal conditions for pursuing their shady activities, was the logical and unavoidable first step. However, in order to achieve some kind of effect, it is necessary to ensure some other conditions, which the carriers of the previous and current policies are not capable of doing. This refers above all to the requisite support of fresh foreign capital for the preserving of the dinar's convertibility and the opening of markets, as prerequisite conditions for the launching of production. Both these tasks are linked directly with political credibility abroad, something the present regime doesn't have, and can't attain. That is why it is only a matter of time before the inflationary spiral starts growing again. If the needs of the sowing period are absorbed in some way, the harvest will lead to considerable problems in covering the primary issue, and that will be an end to all illusions. Some excuse will be found for the gullible public, but the reasons will be due to the system, and that is why this sequence of developments is unavoidable.

Things would be different if Avramovic had the strength to defend clear economic principles and resist the interests of the ruling structures. I doubt that he will be able to do so.

The question asked today is: is Avramovic continuing where Ante Markovic, former Socialist Yugoslavia Prime Minister left off, and how to explain the support (if any), of the Serbian authorities for the new reforms? I don't think there is any ground for comparing the two men. Ante Markovic was an important political figure, who during a truly historical time had the chance of preventing the catastrophe which enveloped this area. To what extent this chance was a realistic one, and whether Markovic made the right moves, are the subjects of another analysis. At any rate, the economic reforms which Markovic launched successfully, are too closely linked to his personality. It is less known that the basic concept had been drawn up during the previous federal government's mandate.

On the other hand, Avramovic is just an economic expert who has taken advantage of circumstances to promote elementary economic principles in a charming way, while at the same time leaving the man in the street in the belief that he has patented something new. Had the Serbian authorities wished to make these moves earlier, it would have been easy to find experts who would have worked out the details. It is now in the authorities' interests that this should be done, and herein lies the reason for the support being given to Avramovic. This same authority sabotaged identical elements of Ante Markovic's program, because they didn't fit in with their political goals at the time.