A Census In Six Languages

One of the basic rules of ``Balkan mathematics'' is that two and two rarely add up to four. By applying this ``mathematical logic'' to Macedonia, one comes to the conclusion that Macedonia, along with Serbia, is the biggest state in the Balkans, with around nine million inhabitants.

Leader of the Democratic Party Petar Gosev explained how this was possible, in early February this year, when the Macedonian Parliament held an unsuccessful debate on the Law on census. ``Macedonia has far more inhabitants than was shown by the last census,'' said Gosev at the time. ``'Modest' Macedonians claim that 1,350,000 Macedonians live here, 1 million to 1.2 million ethnic Albanians as Naser Ziberi claims, 400,000 Serbs according to claims made by a great number of Serb political demographers, 300,000 Vlachs of Greek descent, according to some Greek political demographers, 150,000200,000 Turks according to claims by representatives of the Turkish nationality, 220,000 Romanies according to statistical data given by Faik Abdi, and around two million Bulgarians according to Bulgarian political demographic estimates, which means that Macedonia has a population of 5.4 to 5.6 million inhabitants. To this we must add the three million Macedonians living in neighboring and other states. All in all, there are between 8.5 and 9 million inhabitants, just like the Serbs,'' concluded Gosev.

Similar mathematical feats have been present in Skopje since the 1991 census, and have become topical in the last few weeks after the debate on the Law on census started in the Sobranie (parliament). The census, and counting of the number of households and agricultural estates under the supervision of international monitors, should be carried out between June 115. But, by Thursday afternoon, the Macedonian Parliament had not yet adopted a decision on the census. International sponsors have earmarked 1.9 million ecus for the census, members of the European Council's group of experts have advised the Macedonian Government (the opposition claims that ``pressured'' is the right word) to meet the demands of national minorities and allow them to fill in the census form in their mother tongue. The draft Law on the census also foresees the existence of five bilingual formsapart from the Macedonian language, members of other nationalities will be able to express themselves in Albanian, Turkish, SerboCroatian, Romany and Wallachian. The impossibility of expressing themselves in their mother tongue was the reason why ethnic Albanians refused to participate in the 1991 census in Macedonia, after which their presence in the structure of the population became the subject of manipulation and a first class political element; i.e. there were claims that they covered 25%40% of the overall total of the population in Macedonia, depending on who was publishing and interpreting the data.

Macedonian radicals insist that the census must be carried out in the Macedonian language, which is the official language. The stand of Macedonian nationalists ahead of the parliamentary session was stated explicitly by Vladimir Golubovski the leader of a VMRO (right wing party) splinter, who called on the Macedonian people to stage peaceful demonstrations in front of the Sobranie in support of Macedonian deputies who were trying to prevent the adoption of the law which would allow the census to be carried out in six languages, ``thus promoting Macedonia into a multinational state.''

While the stand of the radicals is clear, that of ethnic Albanian deputies from the PDPNDP national bloc remains a mystery. In 1991, at a nod from this bloc, the ethnic Albanian population boycotted the census. There are views that the ethnic Albanian bloc has no reason for dissatisfaction this time, because much of that insisted on by its deputies has been adopted. Leaders of parties rallying ethnic Albanians, demand however, that the census include, apart from the so-called ``residential population,'' citizens living abroad, and that ``they all be counted as part of the population living in Macedonian territory.'' In this way the number of ethnic Albanians in Macedonian would significantly exceed the number recorded in 1991.

There are many who believe that the June census (if it is held) will be just a prelude to regular parliamentary elections which are planned for November this year. The results of the census and the elections, could, according to many estimates, affect the uncertainties and drama over Macedonia's future more than the neighboring countries' efforts at destabilizing the country. Official circles in Skopje believe that the census, monitored by international observers, will show a demographic situation similar to that in 1991, and so cool off all who like to indulge in ``Balkan mathematics.'' This would create conditions for elections to be held in peaceful conditions. The majority of the parties view the census as the first big pre-election event. The Macedonian radicals are using the census to fight for the ``preservation of the Macedonian language as the official language,'' while the radicals among the ethnic Albanians fear that there could be less of them than they claim, and that this time they would have the international observers' confirmation of the fact.

Statistical experts caution that the census is being carried out at the last moment, and that any further putting off of the population count could jeopardize the entire project. Sobranie Speaker Stojan Andov hinted at trying and difficult debates and possible complications when he called the census ``an act of great state importance.'' Andov believes that the adoption of the draft Law on the census would allow the clarification of ``many dilemmas and confusion spread by certain circles, and which could serve as a new means for the internal destabilizing of the state.''

Two weeks ago Andov was forced to break off a session during which regulations for the November elections were on the agenda, because of incidents. PDP deputy Esref Alija described an amendment proposed by the VMRODPMNE deputy group as ``national-chauvinist,'' and claimed that this was a preparation of the ground for the ``entrance of Fascism in these areas.'' This resulted in a lava of patriotic sentiments from the Macedonian national wing, which was followed by heated discussions and verbal duels which came close to fistfights. Deputy Teodor Petrov accused ethnic Albanians of ``fascist methods.'' The microphone passed from hand to hand, both sides uttered threats and swore, so that the Speaker brought the session to an end peremptorily.

Ahead of a continuation of the session in the Sobranie, which will debate the delicate subject of the census, there are many in Skopje who say that all inter-ethnic problems and differences have been ironed out in parliament so far. What happened could serve as a warning that when parliament becomes too small, then solutions are sought in the streets. This is something that Macedonia has managed to avoid so far.

Results of the 1991 census

Macedonians 1,314,283 64.62% Albanians 427,313 21.01% * Turks 97,416 4.79% Romanies 55,575 2.73% Serbs 44,159 2.17% Others 87,089 4.68% Total 2,339,064 100.00%

* Ethnic Albanians boycotted the 1991 census.