The Deterrent Factor

Macedonia formed its army during the withdrawal of the former Yugoslav Peoples' Army (JNA) from the republic. The agreement on a peaceful withdrawal and removal of every nonstationary thing (weaponry, tiling, electric installations...) was reached on February 21, 1992 by Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov and the then federal Defence Secretary General Blagoje Adzic. The last JNA soldier left the republic on March 27 that year.

``I can't place a value on everything that was removed,'' Macedonian Defence Minister Vlado Popovski told Vreme and added: ``There is a very specific list. It covers a huge amount of weapons since the former third army district was one of the most numerous and best equipped in the JNA. Experts say there were some 40,000 troops in Macedonia. In any case, Macedonia contributed, like the other former Yugoslav republics, to arming and equipping the JNA. That army left nothing behind but empty buildings. Consciously or not, they actually hampered the formation of a well equipped army in the Republic of Macedonia.''

At first, the Macedonian borders were patrolled by police who also had to combat the formation of paramilitary units which is still underway.

``We are working on two levels: through counterintelligence, counterterrorist groups and the conventional police against illegal arms trading,'' Miroljub Frckovski, Internal Affairs Minister, says. ``Several groups were arrested, including a Macedonian group in 1991 and an Albanian group who were recently sentenced. In general, our focus on eliminating illegal arms trading destroyed any illusion that an internal military option could be used to back up political demands.''

The Macedonian army (ARM) began developing its doctrines with no paramilitary rivalry. Popovski says they opted to create a highly skilled and equipped defensive army as a strong deterrent but added that the arms embargo had to be lifted and they had to rely on collective security systems.

``We applied to join the Partnership for Peace and expect Macedonia to be an associate NATO member,'' he says. ``The main obstacle lies in the voting system, that is the constant obstruction by Greece.''

Macedonia abolished its territorial defences, its active military core is backed up by reserves (with an estimated potential of between 130,000 and 150,000) and it has professional soldiers. The ARM's priorities are the purchase of modern equipment, tanks, missile systems and helicopters since they believe a conventional airforce is not the best solution since the state has a small airspace.

The Skopje Center for Ethnic Relations recently published a report titled ``Social and Sociopathological Dimensions of Citizens' Loyalty to the Republic of Macedonia.'' The results of that research, as reported by the weekly Puls, show that 70.5% of ethnic Macedonians and 38.5% of ethnic Albanians have faith in the ARM; 62.5% of Macedonians and 33.75% of Albanians don't trust the army; and 23.5% and 27.75% respectively have no opinion. The military authorities assured VREME that young Albanian men are regularly responding to the draft following initial hesitation and abstention. They add that the ARM has 25% of Albanians in its ranks and stress that Albanian officers are in ranking posts.

Of the political parties in Macedonia, Petar Gosev's Democratic Party is the most critical of the ARM. That party has a shadow cabinet which includes retired General Arsevski (former Macedonian Chief of Staff) as shadow Defence Minister. Their criticism is based on the abolishment of the territorial defences and reduced competence of the General Staff in relation to the Defence Ministry which is headed by a civilian. The main dispute seems to be the decision on allowing foreign troops into Macedonia.

The Christian Democrats advocate the introduction of Orthodox Chaplains into the army but since the ARM is multiconfessional neither the constitution nor laws provide space for that.

The Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity has no fundamental complaints because of the posts held by Albanian officers while the rightwing VMRODPMNE is making every effort to create the impression that they have contacts in the military.

``We see no potential aggressor in any of our neighbors because of many common elements and interests,'' Popovski says, ``I believe a new model of relations will win in the Balkans and that we will become part of a Europe with open borders. But the Republic of Macedonia has not been recognized by two of its neighborsFR Yugoslavia and Greece. That motivates extremists who are present in every society especially in situations of armed conflict and that destabilizes Macedonia. If that problem is solved every other problem is a minor one.''

The Greek trade embargo and tensions on the YugoslaviaMacedonia border are the biggest crisis the ARM has faced to date. Popovski says Yugoslav soldiers entered Macedonian territory eight times over the past couple of months and adds that ARM troops pushed them out. The only place where they stayed is Cupino Brdo, he says. Macedonian and Yugoslav troops have dug in there.

``Cupino Brdo is 150 meters in Macedonia on every military map printed in Belgrade. We informed the UN Secretary General about that and we hope the problem will be solved diplomatically. However, if political measures don't help we'll defend our territory as any army would.''

Skopje analysts believe his confidence is drawn from the presence of UNPROFOR's US and Nordic contingents stationed in the republic since the prevailing opinion is that any clash there would cause a regional war.

The rumor is that the Yugoslav soldiers were pushed out in small groups by larger groups of Macedonians who first surrounded them then ordered them out.

FR Yugoslavia did not respond to those expulsions because of international pressure and the importance of the Macedonian border amid the economic sanctions. Also, the ARM's basic goal was to not show weakness in border disputes with any of its four neighbors and it enjoys full support from abroad, especially the US.

The second factor is the republic's political stability and low crime rates. Internal Affairs Minister Frckovski says the Macedonian police is among the best equipped in Europe. He says: ``We couldn't allow the entire political structure to fall under the influence of organized crime. If that happened it would cause social, criminal and political repercussions and destabilization. Unlike Serbia, Bulgaria or Albania, it would have lasting, serious political effects. We were lucky and managed to prevent that happening.''

The Macedonian police has some 8,500 officers with 5,500 of them in uniform. Macedonia's special police units were among the best in the former Yugoslavia and earned high praise while training in the US, Turkey and Germany.

The ARM inherited nothing from the JNA but did get an impressive infrastructure including one of the best training grounds in Europe at Krivolak. There are unofficial ideas on renting it out to foreign armies and there is a lot of interest.

Macedonia's geostrategic position has lost in importance due to developments in weaponry and equipment but the presence of foreign troops there is still enough to make neighbors nervous. Observers note that electronic surveillance equipment was deployed for the visit of US Joint Chiefs Chairman General Shalikashvili.

In that context, the ARM's latest promotion is based on the will to show that it can oppose any attempt to destabilize Macedonia (the coming census is an ideal opportunity).

In other words, if it can help itself it can count on help from the great powers and in that regard low numbers and scanty equipment are of almost no importance. But, if the November elections result in policy change, with demagogues and populists who tend to be easily provoked winning, the situation changes completely.

The ARMBasic Facts

Commander in Chief: President Kiro Gligorov

Chief of Staff: General Dragoljub Bocinov

Defence Minister: Dr. Vlado Popovski

Size: around 15,000 (officers and enlisted men)

Weapons: nothing special since the JNA took everything out of Macedonia. The ARM is armed with weapons from territorial defence stockpiles.

Conscription: 12 months

Traditions: the Kresenski and Ilinden Uprisings, WWII (194145)

Greatest Success: The only army of the former Yugoslav republics which has not gone to war.

Officers Salaries: from 400 DEM to 1,200 DEM for the Chief of Staff

Ghost Town

I was allowed to take photographs in the ARM's largest, Ilinden, barracks (former Marshal Tito) but not alone and my guides did not allow me to talk to the soldiers. What could I see? One of the JNA's largest army barracks looked like a ghost town. The blacktops where hundreds of troops stood on parade are empty, buildings with partly broken windows are deserted, empty tank hangars are used to park officers' cars while their soldiers train in their shade. But the facilities in use are being well maintained.

ARM troops, dressed in the grey green of the JNA not their standard camouflage uniforms, were training hard. The explanation for the uniforms was that everything available had to be used. In the sweltering 36 degrees in the shade they trained with infantry weapons, stripped and assembled two antiaircraft guns, trained with an artillery piece.

I was most impressed by the crew of a 120mm mortar who deployed and redeployed it on the run. They didn't even roll up their sleeves despite the heat.

The troops' discipline seemed to be extremely high but maybe they just wanted to impress me.