The Trump Card

It's becoming increasingly certain that the threemonthlong parliamentary crisis in Croatia will end with the calling of the early elections. Croatian President Franjo Tudjman will be forced to make such a move because it is difficult for him to maintain a delicate quorum that his Croatian Democratic Community (HDZ) now has in the parliament, but also for other constitutional and practical reasons. Primarily because of the fact that the Croatian constitution envisions that any decision concerning the association with other states (specifically the forming of the confederation between Croatia and the BosnianMuslim federation) must be supported by a twothird majority in the Lower House so that the parliament could later ratify the agreements on possible extension of UNPROFOR's mandate. HDZ is losing popularity, and it is not to be ruled out that the Croatian leadership may adopt the war option to liberate the areas now held by rebel Serbs in order to win back the confidence.

The Parliament has continued to hold sessions without the opposition adopting decision although it is clear that there is no quorum. Another big reason for disbanding the parliament is the announcement of a hot political autumn when the mandate of UNPROFOR is due to expire. No one in Croatia is happy with it, including a large number of HDZ representatives so Sime Djodan said, ``UNPROFOR is in Croatia illegally because it had not received legitimacy from the parliament.''

There are some other possibilities as well. HDZ, or more precisely Tudjman, may give in after all, or he may decide to rule with decrees, which would not be completely constitutional. History teaches us that those who have come to power in a revolutionary way, as HDZ did, find it very difficult to abandon their positions by legitimate means, so that the slogan, ``They were in power for 45 years, it's our turn now,'' that was launched in 1990 has become topical again.

Although all options remain open at the moment, it seems that the early elections represent the least harmful way to overcome the crisis. The information that HDZ has ordered the drafting of a new electoral law that would ensure the largest possible number of parliamentary seats with the fewest possible number of votes only goes to support this thesis. Disregarding the fact that the opposition parties are not ready for the elections yet and the fact that they would not suit them now because of the divisions among the opposition parties, it is certain that there is no miracle that could save HDZ from the electoral defeat.

According to the statements made by Tudjman and other top officials, particularly army representatives, it seems that HDZ has got a trump card, that it will use in order to change its currently unfavorable image. Although indirectly, it was referred to at the last parliamentary session, and it implies war. It has already been heard that Croatia will be forced to reclaim its occupied territories by force if it does not manage to do it by negotiations that are currently deadlocked. This time the reason to attack UNPROFOR and its inefficiency was the case of Kakmethe water pump near Benkovac, that supplies Biograd and Zadar with water, and that was, according to the Croatian side, blown up by Chetniks although it is located in the demarcation zone which is under a jurisdiction of UNPROFOR.

Even moderate Franjo Gregoric spoke against UNPROFOR and demanded that its troops are finally posted on the Croatian borders. Franjo Tudjman made it clear in Pazin during the celebration of Day of antifascist struggle (June 22, when the Sisak partisan unit was formed) by saying at this typically election rally, ``The present international position of Croatia enables her to defend her sovereign rights and integrate the occupied areas in a peaceful way. Should this prove to be unsuccessful, then she will liberate the occupied areas with the understanding of the international community, since the international community knows that this democratic Croatia has a peaceful policy and wants to be a factor of peace and cooperation among all peoples in this part of Europe.''

It is difficult to believe that the international community would give an approval to Croatia to liberate Krajina by force, but one should also have some reservations concerning Croatia's ability to carry it out since the front line is 1,000 km long, her towns and cities may sustain further damage and the enemy may launch a counter offensive. One should not forget that Krajina relies on the Bosnian Serb Republic that, on the other hand, relies on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Even if the war option prevails there may be two possibilities. The first being that the Croats and the Muslims will try to seize the corridor in Posavina regardless of possible victims and destruction. The second possibility that's more likely would follow the ``Maslenica model,'' like last year before the local elections when the Croatian army scored military but also propaganda points.

In any case, Croatia can no longer deal with this situation of neither war nor peace, and both HDZ and the opposition agree on this, but it is HDZ that would benefit most from a possible ``little war.''