Parliamentary Pains

Compared to other former Yugoslav republics where (in spite of frequent repeat performances) elections are still perceived as some kind of a trauma, it looked like Macedonia would manage to enter its second multiparty elections with more democratic routine. Unfortunately, this has not proved to be the case, and Macedonia has started to resemble those it wished to differ from. The only certain thing a few months ahead of elections, is that they will be held in Autumn. Everything else, including the electoral law has suddenly become controversial because the deadlines for the adoption of the laws have been passed, and the Macedonian Parliament is deadlocked by the refusal of some deputy groups to participate in its work.

If the deputies of the nationalist VMRODPMNE, the strongest oppostition party persist in boycotting Parliament (which is very likely), and the same is done by the deputies of the powerful Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP) which rallies Macedonian Albanians and is also a government coalition party (whose member left the parliament, allegedly dissatisfied with harsh punishments meted to members of the ethnic Albanian ``paramilitary'' in Macedonia), then there will be no other choice but to hold elections under the old ``Communist'' electoral law, adopted at the time of a oneparty Sobranie (Macedonian Parliament).

Experts on Constitutional law have analyzed all possible combinations concerning elections and concluded that Parliament Speaker Stojan Andov (normally very good at walking the fine line) now has no manoeuvreing space in finding a compromise or anything else for that matter. Viewed theoretically, the current parliamentary blockade could be resolved by dissolving the Parliament. Unlike Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov cannot proclaim the current Parliament a ``disgrace'' and say ``that the citizens deserve a better one,'' and then, with the flourish of his pen sign a decree dissolving it, all this in front of TV cameras. The Sobranie can be dissolved only by its deputies, and they of course, have no intention of doing so. The second theoretical possibility is the introduction of a state of emergency in the face of a direct threat of war, which in spite of speculations concerning Macedonia's future, does not seem very likely. We are left in the end, with new elections and the old electoral law.

Professor of Constitutional Law at the School of Law in Skopje Svetomir Skaric described, in an interview to VREME, the newly arisen situation as ``very serious'' and cautioned of the serious consequences which could result from the present deadlock in Parliament. ``Chances of this Parliament adopting a new electoral law are nil. We have reached a paradoxical situation. A oneparty Parliament was capable of adopting legal measures for the first multiparty elections, while the existing multiparty one can neither do that nor go one step further in the development of parliamentary democracy. I am sorry that the Macedonian Constitution does not contain instruments for punishing deputies for blocking parliament work. In countries with developed parliamentary democracies such behavior is sanctioned with the dissolving of Parliament, but our Constitution is lacking in this. That is why we are constantly exposed to parliamentary torture.''

Skaric adds that new elections under the old law always carry the danger of having their legitimacy questioned and the risk of demands for results to be annulled. The old electoral law was drafted along the majority principle, and this prevented minorities and small ethnic groups from being represented in the Sobranie. One of its serious flaws is the possibility that some deputies can enter Parliament with less than 20% votes in some electoral units. This law also allowed tampering with electoral lists. Complaints concerning this issue were voiced by all parties in Macedonia at the time of the first multiparty elections in Autumn 1990. Sobranie went through the new package of electoral laws with a fine comb before all further work was blocked. The Law on Presidential elections was adopted and they will be held in November this year. Macedonia's new President (the majority of observers in Skopje believe that Kiro Gligorov will win again easily) will have a fiveyear mandate.

By analyzing who is most persistent in blocking Parliament, it can easily be deduced who stands to gain most by preventing the new electoral law from passing through. The VMRODPMNE fears the proposed law which is based on a combination of the majority and proportional systems. In the last few months the VMRODPMNE has been rocked by scandals and at the most awkward moment dissident stands have been heard in the party leadership. It is expected that the VMRODPMNE will play on the ``ethnic Albanian syndrome,'' while the leadership has called for an urgent change of government, which they believe to be a pre requisite condition for the scheduling of free and fair elections. VMRODPMNE leader Ljupco Georgijevski claims that Macedonia is going through a classical parliamentary crisis and that the only logical step is a change of government. ``It's all so obvious,'' claims Georgijevski keeping in mind the fact that with the withdrawal of the PDP from Sobranie, the Macedonian Government would lose its coalition partner and parliamentary majority. An earlier VMRODPMNE statement accused the Government of functioning as an informal body, along two principles: the personal interests of the ministers and pressures exerted by the PDP, whose proposals were always accepted so as not to upset the Government's position.

Elections are also not to the liking of the PDP, since it has been rocked by internal party showdowns. The PDP leadership's decision to withdraw from Parliament marks the start of the campaign, while playing a somewhat rougher game has resulted in restoring the ethnic Albanian's trust in the PDP, after the February rift in the party. At the time Menduh Taci split off with his ``informal group'' and a platform aimed at finding a radical solution to the ethnic Albanian problem in Macedonia. This implied leaving the coalition and avoiding all cooperation with the authorities. NDP, the ``younger partner'' in the ethnic Albanian coalition has started moving slowly toward this stand, so that there are forecasts that the NDP will appear in coalition with Taci's faction at the November elections. In this way Menduh Taci would ensure a legitimacy he does not enjoy at present, while the NDP would try and take over some of the PDP's preeminence.

The VMRO and the PDP gained most at the last elections. At the next elections they will try to improve and retain their shaky positions by insisting on the old electoral law and instigating a parliamentary crisis. Another sign that the elections are close is the fact that the Social Democratic Alliance headed by Macedonian Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski has been increasingly criticized for its Communist past by opposition parties. This could be the reason why many unofficial assessments refer to this party's rather weak position. The Democratic Party led by Petar Gosev is the fourth serious contender mentioned on the Macedonian political scene. Gosev has lately often been criticized by the newspapers, his role in Macedonia's independence has been challenged and he has been accused of political narcism. The Democratic Party recently celebrated its first anniversary. Gosev insists on the thesis of a ``national reconciliation'' and never passes up an opportunity of criticizing the authorities. Talking to VREME, Democratic Party leadership member Djordje Marjanovic described the current situation in Macedonia as being worthy of Ripley's ``Believe It Or Not.'' ``Political representatives of one ethnic minority are holding the rest of the government coalition hostage,'' said Marjanovic. ``Macedonia has a Parliament which cannot work because there is no parliamentary majority without ethnic Albanians. Even though Macedonia is a parliamentary democracy under the constitution, it is in fact a monarchy, because the head of state can do as he pleases and does not answer to anyone, since he has no one to answer to. The only thing that this head of state cannot do is dissolve this `make believe' parliament or this `alleged' Government,'' said Marjanovic, adding that the whole situation has been engineered on purpose so that ``die hard Communists and their Albanian allies'' with the help of the old electoral laws might remain in power.

Sobranie Speaker Stojan Andov regards all this criticism on account of Parliament and the Government as the nervous reactions of those who have failed to win a place in Parliament so far, and are trying to improve their standings ahead of elections. ``All this is not unusual in an environment which has a few months to go before elections. If the new electoral laws are not adopted, and this seems very likely, we'll know why. I, personally, don't believe that anyone could challenge the legitimacy of the elections if they have to be held under the old law. Those who are preventing the democratization of parliamentary life in Macedonia have the least right to do so,'' said Andov to VREME.

Concerning Macedonia, all agree that ``there are things which are not good, but they'll just have to do,'' meaning: better to have the elections under the old law than no elections at all. Everything else is part of the wellknown fact that democracy in the Balkans, once it gets started, progresses at a snail's pace.