The Secret Of The Pink Envelope

The pink envelope, for example.

The Assembly in Pale first discusses peace and war, constitutional arrangements, borders, sanctions, and intentions of the world's biggest powers, and then puts the verdict into an envelope. Inside it says what will happen to us, which we shall not find out until Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic arrives in Geneva and unseals the fate of the Serbs there. I have a feeling that this thriller with an envelope was invented by one of fourman delegation of writers from Belgrade in order to tease the new world order a little. The delegation, that includes Brana Crncevic, Radomir Smiljanic, Momo Kapor and Gojko Nogo (all are ardent advocates of the Serb cause), could not have been stronger. There's no such inn that could deal with all four of them at the same time and they happened to offer their help at the moment when what the Serbs need most is a sober word.

But, everything becomes literature when men of letters get involved. All we needed was Karadzic, himself a poet, losing the pink envelope on his way to Geneva.

Bosnian Serb Information Minister Miroslav Toholj, another writer, cited two reasons for putting the Serb response in the envelope. Firstly, the Muslim and the Croatian side would not be able to manipulate with and build their strategy on it. This doesn't hold water, since Sarajevo endorsed the plan before Pale decided on it, although Bosnian Muslim leader Alija Izetbegovic said that the plan should be accepted because the Serbs would definitely reject it, which means that the contrary would most likely be true as well. But, it is up to those in Geneva whose job it is to cope with this dialectics.

The second reason for secrecy in Pale was to prevent arbitrary interpretations of the verdict, which means that it was phrased ambiguously and requires a competent interpreter. Such trick had been anticipated and a number of Western diplomats said that conditions would not be acceptable. However, the writers' society in Pale was convinced that it was possible to put something together that the Russians and the Americans would decipher in different ways. Pale is playing on the rift in the Contact Group, just as the international community is counting on the rift between Pale and Belgrade.

It transpires that the outcome of war and the fate of peace in Bosnia hinge on whether the Serbs will manage to divide the world before the world divides them. The situation is both serious and dramatic because the international community achieved greater unity than ever while Milosevic and Karadzic are falling out. Nevertheless, both processes may turn out to have been only temporary, and take the opposite course, so that things get back where they were in the first place.

The Americans are dissatisfied, but Pale has scored a small tactical point when Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev said that the Serb answer is not altogether bad while Europe is not exactly sure what stand to take. The Contact Group may be buried where Vance and Owen had already been laid to rest and Milosevic and Karadzic may carry on arm in arm as before. Would that be a victory and whose? What will we think if we look back one day and realise that years have gone by as we waited to find out in what state we actually lived and what its size was and that Radovan Karadzic was the most important person in our lives during that time?

The fact that the peace plan of the Contact Group was referred to as the plan of Bosnia's partition by the Serb side points to its most disputable item. At issue are constitutional principles, i.e. Pale wants to have as few as possible obligations towards Bosnia and an open possiblity of linking with Serbia, while the plan contains the opposite. On the other hand, Croatian President Franjo Tudjman hopes that the Serbs will be able to persuade the world to let them out of Bosnia while he gets to keep Krajina. Izetbegovic is the only one who wants Bosnia as a whole, not because he believes it would be his or because he cannot picture life without Karadzic or Bosnian Serb Army Commander, General Ratko Mladic, but because in case the Serbs leave he is left alone with Tudjman.

The world insists on preserving Bosnia for a number of reasons: the ideals of a multicultural society and tolerance; the wish not to award the Serb aggression, its obligation towards a recognized state; because of a dangerous precedent and its own credibility and the wish to uphold some norms of international conduct. As far as Bosnia is concerned, it reached an ultimate motive, stronger than all others are, i.e. the balance of fear that's always been the basis of international stability. A partition of that community which was maintained through centuries could cause serious and permanent turmoil on all sides and among all three peoples instead of expected happiness. Would Serbia, for example, accept to sacrifice entire generations in an uncertain attempt at establishing and stabilising Greater Serbia? All that would be very much like the situation of permanent conflict in the Middle East since Israel was created.

It seems that Slobodan Milosevic is aware of this. Moreover, he must know better than anyone else that his project turned out to be a long term one while the means are only shortterm. If he advocates peace today, it is only because he is sure that he may lose tomorrow. Those who are not forced to calculate and are answerable only to God, like the Serbian Orthodox Church and former Yugoslav President Dobrica Cosic, would like to continue to fight but through intermediaries. They have support of Vojislav Seselj, the leader of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS), Vojislav Kostunica, the leader of the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), and Zoran Djindjic, the leader of the Democratic Party (DS), as they think that whatever is bad for Milosevic must be good for them. They believe that the public opinion is on their side and forget that Milosevic controls the television, and can, therefore, turn Serb patriotism on and off as he likes.

That's how a miracle happened. Milosevic now supports the same stand as his most consistent opponents Vuk Draskovic, the leader of the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) and Vesna Pesic, the leader of the Civic Alliance (GS). It is hard to tell who of them feels most uncomfortable, but SPO and GS obviously won't and have no reason to change their position only because Milosevic is now closer to them. On the other hand, one never knows how long he will stick there. He may be there only in passing.

As far as peace and sanctions are concerned, Milosevic's word rather than America's reaction to the verdict of Pale will be most interesting and important. So far his press and televison have tried to prove that Pale's rejection is actually their acceptance, which means that Belgrade will not or is unable to abandon the policy of lying. Should peacemaking fail and the isolation is strengthened, Milosevic could simply inform us that the sanctions have been lifted and that everything is normal. No one will be able to check it anyway.

VREME's commentator Stojan Cerovic has returned to his regular job after 11month stay in the U.S.