The National Flyover

Everything concerning Bosnia and the Bosnian Serbs again looks dramatic, uncertain, complicated, full of puzzling signals, contradictory statements and dangerous threats. As if that's the only thing the world has to deal with, as if there is some will somewhere to do something big, only no one knows exactly what, where, who and how. In the global perspective, the problem is small but typical. That is why it seems it can be used for establishing once again and without many risks what is whose place, who is doing what, and how the balance on the international merrygoround is maintained.

It turned out that the world's biggest powers met somewhere around Brcko. The Bosnian Serbs are intent on making history as a model, the first of the kind, that was sentenced in the name of the future, postcommunist law and order. That sentence is slow in coming, which is why the victory over the new world order is celebrated here every now and then by local revellers. But, the sentence will eventually be passed and it can't possibly be favourable for the Bosnian Serbs. The only copout for them would be a genuine triumph of Eastern Orthodoxy attempting to save Europe, i.e. a sudden breakdown of the entire structure of Western civilisation. On the fatal flyover near Brcko.

The problem of peace and war in Bosnia now looks quite simple and boils down to a gap between what Pale considers the ``minimum of Serb interests'' and what the world considers the ``minimum of justice.'' Between those two minimums is the corridor, the right to Greater Serbia, and perhaps a few more trifles, like Sarajevo and the access to the sea. It follows that even the smallest state of all Serbs is still far below the lowest standards of justice. Especially after a war like this one.

I believe that there is a deep and horrible feeling in Serbia that the Serb national goal, to which everything was subjected and sacrificed, is unjust, in spite of fierce propaganda. People are fighting this feeling in different ways: they keep repressing it, trying to believe their TV sets even if that may drive them into madness; they seek responsibility elsewhere; they are furious and hate everybody from America to their first neighbours; they beat their children, and, in general, destroy their own lives... Nothing could have been so successful in warping the public life, deforming the soul and the character of the people, along with their relationships, or in causing so much bitterness, vulgarity and lies like those attempts aimed at dealing with and deceiving the feeling of elementary injustice that one cannot live with.

In the present circumstances, no matter how many times Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic is asked to open some new envelope, there'll always be a resolute ``yes'' or ``no'' in it. No matter how much time the Contact Group or any other body worldwide takes to solve this riddle, there is no hope that a compromise between justice and Greater Serbia can be achieved. I don't believe that the world can simply give up and accept the reality, in other words, a defeat, and say, ``O.K. Let it be, but don't do it next time.''

And even if everything turns into sheer bargaining between the Serb and the MuslimCroat side those who are stronger and more patient will have the advantage. The Serbs who have relied on force so far, will be on the losing side depending on the extent to which the great powers get involved and they may succumb to an irresistible thirst for justice only then.

It seems to me that there are only two possible outcomes. The Bosnians Serbs will either suffer a military defeat, sufficiently big to reduce their appetites and establish some balance of guilt and justice, or everything will remain the same, frozen and unsolved, and the world's guardians will lock us up and leave, ready to wait as long as it is necessary.

The latter outcome may be the best or the worst depending on where one happens to be, what one did in the war and what one expects of life. Those most responsible will remain unpunished, or at least not more punished than the rest of us. They could even celebrate and cash in on the victory. The rest of the people would work for decades on maintaining that victory and that illegal state which would always be more expensive and more important than maintaining one's bare life. They would convince us that our lives are ugly, banal, and short, which would be true if one lived in that state.

I know that many here do not take the West seriously. They believe that perseverance paid off and that both America and Europe only demonstrated how powerless they are in the face of Serb determination. They believe that they are soft and decent people who can't even agree among themselves while making hollow threats and failing to consistently enforce the sanctions. That would perhaps be true if we here had something big for sale. Since we don't, the West will certainly use a cheap opportunity to prove that it keeps its words and sticks to its principles. It is normal in the West to be consistent, decent and kind, at least as long as it doesn't cost anything, which is not the case here.

It seems to me this is an important difference which I will try to illustrate with an example that may be somewhat inappropriate. My telephone number is similar to the numbers of two big city institutions. People call every day and ask me to put them through. When I explain that they got a wrong number at least every other person simply hangs up or swears. Whoever believes that the whole world behaves like that would be surprised in the West at people's kindness that is not caused by something particular and that costs nothing. Perseverance in the isolation and the implementation of sanctions could come out of that trait, since the West believes that it is the least it could have done for us without having to pay almost anything.

It is trouble that now connects Serbia and Montenegro more than anything else. The first problem is how to end the war and get rid of the sanctions, and the second is what next. It turns out that there is no peace without Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, who has apparently decided to light a candle (as those who did it as a sign of the protest against the war) and join antiwar rallies in front of his own cabinet. No one can say that he isn't welcome, although everybody will want to touch him and check that it isn't his lookalike.

Milosevic is using that metamorphosis to solve both political and survival problems, that are both his and ours, simultaneously bringing himself into a position that is morally less bearable for him than for us. Those who have always been against him should now wish him long life and good luck. Should he manage to solve the political problem, its moral aspects would be left to lies and oblivion, with hopes that we shall begin to look like people again one day.

The saddest part of this bizarre story is the destiny of a greater part of the Serbian opposition that has waited for this moment all along and followed Milosevic throughout the war knowing that the time for pulling out and giving up will come. They believed that he would be weakest then and that they would simply ruin him with accusations of treason and capitulation. Suddenly, none of that is happening. If they don't shut their mouths immediately, they may turn out to be worse than he is. And, Milosevic can now simply ask: Do you want war along with poverty and inflation which I already showed you or peace and Dragoslav Avramovic (Governor of the Yugoslav National Bank and author of the economic program)?

And, finally, if he happened to misjudge the situation and it turns out that most of us want the former, he is here again. And again. And again. Until we realise that we are his and he is ours.