The Silence Of The General

`General Mladic and the general staff of the Serb Republic (RS) Army have spoken out clearly in favor of the policies of the RS leadership,'' Bosnian Serb Parliament Speaker Momcilo Krajisnik told Beta news agency on August 16.

That same day, General Mladic laid down his gun picked up a scythe and went harvesting with his President Radovan Karadzic at Sokolac village near Pale. That seems to have dampened any of the recent media speculation about the General's loyalty.

Or did it?

Conspicuously, there was a picture but no sound. Mladic said nothing publicly which would confirm Krajisnik's words. Also, the harvest pictures came after one of the most open roll calls of the Bosnian Serb Army chiefs from Belgrade.

The previous night, the editorial on the RTS daily news said: ``Those who don't see clearly or never saw the border between a defensive and war of conquest, those who don't understand that there is a great difference between support and aid in a defensive war against genocide and for the freedom of the Serb people with the Moslems and Croats in the former BosniaHerzegovina, should see clearly that the creation of the RS on half the former BH is the achievement of a just goal. That was worth fighting for and that deserved the help and support of the Serb people in Serbia and FR Yugoslavia. But if they want more than that, if they would deny others what they demand for themselves, then it's not a defensive war, it's a war of conquest. The Serb people never went on a war of conquest.''

After that the General really had no place to go. On the one side, the threat from Belgrade if he assures Bosnian Serb politicians that the war can be continued as before or even worse if he goes on an offensive, he could, on this side of the Drina, be declared the aggressor, maybe even a war criminal. On the other side, his silence must be making Karadzic nervous as well as Krajisnik and the others. Didn't RS Vicepresident Biljana Plavsic recently voice doubt that the General is under the influence of the League of CommunistsMovement for Yugoslavia (SKPJ). For now, Mladic is thought to have chosen a compromise: he posed for pictures to calm Karadzic but not for sound, to stop Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic from getting any angrier. Not a bad strategy for a General who claims to be only a soldier and doesn't know anything about politics.

It's interesting that Mladic appeared only three times in public in the month and a half since the latest peace plan and maps were brought up.

On June 11 he talked to UNPROFOR spokesmen at the Lukavica barracks in Sarajevo about stopping sniper activity and urged the release of all prisoners of war. On June 26, he and Karadzic met Russian Defence Minister General Pavel Grachev who was bringing a message from Russian President Boris Yeltsin. No comment that day. The third time, on August 9, he made a statement to the Serb TV in Pale about the newly graduated RS Army officers in Bijeljina. Assessments of that statement are very divided. Some doubt its authenticity, they say it could have been taped earlier and released when speculation boiled over. Others feel Mladic used a good moment to speak and say nothing. He didn't say a word about the maps, withdrawal from 20% of the territory he holds, strategic position of the RS, Belgrade Pale clash. Just in general terms: ``We have told them (the enemy) and the world a long time ago that we intend to create conditions to reach agreement on an overall and lasting end to hostilities, to allow political solutions to disputed issues.''

All this is very untypical for a general who certainly doesn't fear journalists or interference in politics. That's why it's interesting where Mladic appeared and where he should have appeared and why he hasn't commented.

First, he hasn't said a word since the maps were made public. Yugoslav Chief of Staff General Momcilo Perisic said ``the masters of war are not on this side of the Drina or on the other but in the world which is using our stupidity and disunitythey'll make the first move.'' Mladic could have said something similar, but he didn't. His belligerency would have been attributed to his temperament and ``organic patriotism'' as Plavsic calls it.

The General wasn't in Bosnaski Petrovac on July 17 when Patriarch Pavle consecrated the temple of the holy Apostles Peter and Paul and where a large part of the RS political elite gathered. Earlier, the Foreign Ministers of Britain and France (Douglas Hurd and Allain Juppe) failed in their mission to Pale (Karadzic understood nothing) but it was never clear whether Mladic was at those talks. The gathering in Petrovac was used by the Pale leaders to promote their rejection of the Contact Group plan which was to follow at the Parliament session. Karadzic mentioned war against the whole world for the first time, a general mobilization, a state of war, in short blood and tears, if the maps are rejected, that is, the same things if they're accepted. But Mladic, who is said to be the most respected man in the authorities among the people and who should be asked first about things like these, wasn't there to support him.

The General continued demonstrating his indifference to the future of the Bosnian Serbs at all three RS Parliament sessions: He left the first (July 18) early, and he didn't appear at the next two (July 27 and August 3)very interesting, if you remember his speech to that Parliament a year ago which served to push the Bosnian Serbs into rejecting the VanceOwen plan.

Mladic kept silent when FR Yugoslavia broke off relations with the RS on August 4, he didn't comment a possible state of war in the RS, nor the NATO attacks on Serb positions on August 5. He didn't meet with Patriarch Pavle who came to Pale to ``reconcile brothers'' on August 9, nor with CoChairman of the Conference on Yugoslavia Thorwald Stoltenberg on August 13, nor with Serb Radical Party (SRS) leader Vojislav Seselj who says Milosevic is a traitor and criminal.

Where was the General all that time? His failure to appear at a meeting with UNPROFOR's Bosnia commander General Michael Rose was explained with sickness, his other failures to appear with duties at the Niksicki plateau where RS military sources said he was almost killed when a hand grenade was thrown into his trench.

The only thing that can be concluded is that the man's getting on with his job, especially in view of the Moslem offensive. His only time out was the harvest.

Many believe Mladic is actually the most powerful man in the RS. They say that the only thing that functions in the selfproclaimed Serb state is the army and that even without a declaration of a state of war it has total power on the ground. Also, the General has always appeared as the right man in the right placefrom Knin to Pale and they say his career couldn't have been made without the consent of Milosevic. Some claim the Serbian President personally chose him to command the RS army. But many of his hardcore speeches, radicalism, tendency towards militarypolitical exhibitionism have cast doubts on his loyalty to Belgrade. Milan Babic (former leader of the Krajina Serbs) once, now Karadzic are the best examples of why those reasons would not make him the first to bite the hand that feeds him.

First the London Times quoted high ranking western military sources on July 14 who said Mladic had sent ``a number of carefully worded messages through diplomatic channels, threatening attacks on British and French blue berets'' if there were new air strikes on the Bosnian Serbs after they reject the peace plan.

Then Borba (July 15) claimed Milosevic, Mladic and his second in command General Gvero, and General Perisic had met on July 10. Milosevic demanded the hand over of Mt Ozren and Doboj to the Moslems and all three soldiers refused.

Finally in Srpska Rec, the Serbian Renewal Movement magazine (August 2) Danica Draskovic quoted a ``certain bishop always present at RS Parliament sessions'' who said: ``The Bosnian Serbs have decided to go to war with the whole world and they are demanding that Serbia join them. If Milosevic rejects that ultimatum General Mladic will cross the Drina to free Serbia, topple Milosevic, with the help of Seselj, Kostunica and Djindjic.''

Similar claims were heard for a while longer but the General's silence seems to have denied them. Mladic is increasingly seen in Belgrade as the most cooperative of the Bosnian Serbs because of his mysterious stand. Milan Bozic, a deputy in the Serbian Parliament, told Telegraf weekly: ``Mladic started his career as a Colonel in the Knin Corps, making people take the crosses off their caps and saying ``for me the Chetniks and Partisans are one and the same.'' I don't believe in his sudden turn to Serbdom. I believe the army is much closer to Belgrade and that the main lever of influence on Karadzic could be the army.''

Is that realistic or just wishful thinking?

Vecernje Novosti daily, a newspaper close to the stands of the Serbian authorities, commented on Mladic's harvesting with Karadzic. It said ``Mladic's silence showed that he is a soldier with political sensibilities who is aware of the political gravity of the moment'' and added that his popularity wasn't endangered by rumors and links with war profiteers. Novosti said those were all reasons why Mladic is seen as a potential Serb De Gaulle, a man who will know how to use the charisma he got in the war to rationalize the best possible decision for his people and army.

Another detail seems to show that Belgrade, at least for now, counts on Mladic against Karadzic. The federal government decision to break off all ties with the RS bans Bosnian Serb leaders from entering FRY territory. But, the decision makes no mention of the RS army. Possibly it is taken for granted although the Parliament, President and government are specifically mentioned, or he could have been exempt depending on his behavior. In any case, Bosnian Serb army cars can still be seen in Belgrade.

So where's General Mladic in all this? The RS Army commanders are much more moderate than their political leaders. The BBC quoted sources on the ground who voiced doubt that the war would end well without the support of FR Yugoslavia. It's important to know that a large number of highranking officers from BH are serving in he Yugoslav army, that they have housing in Serbia, that their families are here.

The Vecernje Novosti comment said Mladic could easily change from a winning General to a political loser if he succumbs to the forces of fanatical nationalism. The return of heavy weapons to UNPROFOR after NATO air strikes, the antisniper agreement, defensive activities, seem to show that Mladic and his Generals are not overestimating their forces or that they are obeying directives from Belgrade. If the fortunes of war turn, and there's every chance if the arms embargo is lifted for the Moslems, the soldiers will lose their authority and charisma. Karadzic, Krajisnik and the others will somehow survive politically but the defeated Generals won't.

Belgrade is offering Mladic the change to withdraw honorably and undefeated and become the Serb De Gaulle. This is thought to be the best offer he can get especially since the RS political structures are compact and can't be touched by Milosevic. Some assessments say Karadzic denied he was going to declare a state of war because of that possibility.

Mladic can take it or leave it. If he takes it he should pressure Karadzic, maybe even stage a coup and become a savior and peacemaker like Milosevic. If he leaves it, it means the fighting continues as well as everything else the General finds so dear since the only real glory for a professional is the one he finds clouded in gun smoke and bathed in blood. Time is running out.