The Left Bank

They allowed Milosevic to campaign for peace without an alternative on RadioTV Serbia, Politika and Vecernje Novosti, showing that the new peacemongers' arguments can do them no harm.

Sources who stayed in Pale recently said the RS leaders are calm, even happy, and that they don't doubt Milosevic will be forced to change course or vanish. A similar mood prevails among the people: everyone keep saying that the maps are unacceptable. A B92 Radio reporter tried for days and failed to find anyone in Pale who would say that the maps could be accepted. He said the unity didn't result from fears that someone could harm them if they sided with Milosevic but a conviction that agreement to the maps means an end to everything they achieved in the past two years.

Karadzic made one of his first consolidation moves on Thursday, August 18. He appointed Dusan Kozic, a trusted aide, to head the government instead of compromised Prime Minister Velibor Lukic, who has a song about the huge embezzlements in Banja Luka named after him. He replaced Police Minister Mica Stanisic, who has long been rumored to be Milosevic's man, with Zivko Rakic.

Kozic is from Herzegovina and enjoys a good reputation as a businessman, whatever that word means in the RS, who's unlucky (before the war he was caught in Bileca with a truckload of weapons for the SDS, he was caught smuggling tobacco twice during the war and escaped prison. The first time thanks to his friend, then Bosnian Police chief, Alija Delimustafic's special links with the JNA and the other times thanks to Karadzic). In his inauguration speech, Kozic said the RS would trade with the enemy if the blockade continued and he doesn't seem to have been bluffing. Last week petrol prices in Pale dropped from 4.5Dm when the blockade was imposed to 2.5DM. Local sources say the petrol came via Kupres thanks to Kozic's connections with the Herzegovina Croats.

Karadzic then launched an offensive. Armed with an official RS Parliament demand for a union of all Serb lands, he and Parliament Speaker Momcilo Krajisnik went to Krajina to convince the Krajina Serb leaders to unite with the RS. That could have caused problems for Belgrade and would have annulled every achievement in efforts to normalize Croatia Serbia relations. Karadzic probably counted on Seselj and Babic men in the Krajina parliament to force Milan Martic's hand. Martic was having none of it. The Krajina President was prepared. He said the time wasn't right, that the union would mean the end of the Vance plan and would give Croatia an excuse to attack Krajina. Karadzic had to agree and faked indifference.

In the meantime on Friday night, Belgrade daily Politika published the Lilic interview which among other things mentioned the bad RS attitude towards their largest city Banja Luka. Lilic obviously played to the longlasting dissatisfaction of Banja Luka residents that their fate was being decided in a village with a TV station (as they call Pale), in an effort to undermine the Rally of Serb Unity scheduled by RS leaders for Sunday, August 21.

Karadzic knows Banja Luka doesn't like him but he chose to risk it and he was rewarded with an applauding crowd of 15,000. A much larger number than was expected. Lilic's words fell on deaf ears.

Then the calm came after the busy weekend. RS leaders prepared quietly for the referendum; deputies and officials raced around, repeating constantly that the maps must be rejected and saying they expected over 90% of the vote to be against the Contact Group plan. No doubt it will be. Still, Karadzic can't expect that outcome to improve his strategic position, which realistically isn't good.

The key figure without who Karadzic and Co. can't survive or fall is General Ratko Mladic who's still resisting pressure to openly say who he'll side with. The pressure from both Belgrade and Pale is increasing. There are increasingly frequent reports from ``well informed sources'' that Mladic has opted for this or that. The foreign press published statements by certain close associates of Milosevic who said ``Mladic knows his fate lies in Belgrade, not Pale.'' Tiker news agency reported without naming its source that Mladic and Milosevic had met secretly and that Mladic had refused Milosevic's offer of a high ranking post in the Yugoslav army.

If that report is true and considering the state of the Yugoslav army, Mladic's reply is understandable. He's keeping quiet and it's possible he's enjoying the tension. Last week's reports that Mladic and Karadzic went harvesting together are an excellent example of the general's balancing act: VREME checked and it turned out that both men had been there on the same day but at different times and that they never met. Mladic, unlike Karadzic, wasn't scheduled to be there at all.

But Mladic's bargaining time isn't unlimited. The Presidents on both sides of the Drina are getting nervous. If he keeps quiet for too long he'll get an offer he can't refuse from both.