Western Bosnia Changes Hands

Refugees from Velika Kladusa, the main town in APZB, are now sharing the fate of their ``duty free'' state, as they're calling it now. the APZB was formed last year after the Bosnian Serbs rejected the Vance Owen peace plan and that start of the MoslemCroat war which was aimed at showing that Bosnia has no alternative but ethnic division. Abdic signed nonaggression treaties with Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic and Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic as well as with the head of Bosnian Croat state of HerzegBosnia, Mate Boban and his sponsors in Zagreb.

Everyone profited. Croatia showed the world that it hadn't turned from being a victim to being the aggressor in Bosnia, that it didn't want a war with the Moslems but that Moslem leader Alija Izetbegovic is unreasonable and wants to create a Moslem state of his own.

The Serbs made the same claims but found added interests in supply lines running through the APZB and the fact that Abdic's troops were tying down the 5th Corps.

Finally, Abdic himself had reason to be pleased. He had peace in his region and trade with both Serbs and Croats was booming.

The international community can't claim innocence for the fall of the APZB. Last year the Bosnian Serbs and Croats emerged with a common platform on dividing Bosnia and the Bosnian army was in terrible shape and Abdic gained in importance with assistance from Belgrade and Zagreb. He met with the coChairmen of the Conference on Yugoslavia, took part in the Geneva talks, all with the idea of proving that the Moslem leaders were far from united and did not want peace. Whether and how much help he got to set up the APZB is unclear.

The SerbCroat platform fell through both because Izetbegovic opposed it and US pressure. Abdic lost his doubtful international support first and later Croatia abandoned him when the Washington agreement was signed. Then the Serbs started losing interest. Zagreb limited his business dealings at Sarajevo's insisting and he couldn't get the oil and other goods he traded.

The Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK) leaders continued helping Abdic. They want to prevent the 5th Corps from joining up with an attacking Croatian army through Krajina.

The intensity of the aid Abdic got varied up to the Contact Group maps and the BelgradePale clash when it stopped suddenly. The Bosnian Serbs are preoccupied with their own problems and they can't spare the men to attack Bihac (a UN protected area) to pin down the 5th Corps, nor do they want to risk NATO bombardment. The RSK has been strictly forbidden to get involved now that Belgrade has launched its peacemaking and cooperative policies full of goodwill gestures.

The fighting in the APZB has been paradoxical from day one. The split among the Moslems stems from the question: continue the war or not. Abdic demanded any kind of peace but soon found himself becoming a war leader to anyone who supported him. He had to organize fighting units from men who didn't want to fight. He also urged ``peace in our homes'' and in the end he led the largest group of refugees from the area.

The 5th Corps commanders fiercely attacked Abdic, accusing him of treason and dealing with the Chetniks. They won because among other things, they had more money to offer the Serbs for weapons and supplies. They had one T55 tank when the fighting began. Now they are reliably known to have three tanks but there are reports they have six. Abdic had only three aging T34s.

It's similar with the accusations of economic aid to the Serbs. Early in May this year, a liter of Serbian brandy sold for 30 DM in Bihac, a pack of Banja Luka cigarettes for 4 DM, Montenegrin biscuits for 15 DM a box etc.

There were no reliable allies. The Croatian Defence Council (HVO) kept changing sides depending on Zagreb's mood and the situation on the ground. The Serbs in Bosnia and Krajina never could agree on helping the APZB. At times, Krajina provided artillery support for Abdic's troops while other Serbs sold arms to the 5th Corps.

The 5th Corps won thanks to its energetic commander Dudakovic and the many refugees from Prijedor, Bosanska Krupa, Western and northwestern Bosnia in its ranks. Their ferocity was caused by the fact that they lost everything. The most critical period for the 5th Corps was the first three months when both Abdic and Mladic launched offensives. After that the Corps was reorganized and launched a counteroffensive.

Abdic's last attempt to turn the fortunes of war was on July 5 when special forces penetrated Bihac using an alleged rebellion as their excuse. Who they were is still a mystery. The RSK and Bosnian Serb media then launched a campaign of support. ``Dudakovic is on the run, UNPROFOR transporters destroyed, 5th Corps breaks up, runs off.''

The whole thing fell apart when APZB troops refused to fight in a mysteriously created enclave (50 square kilometers) south of Bihac which could be reached only through Krajina. Confirmed reports said Dudakovic had captured 1200 automatic rifles intended for Abdic. Two APZB security officers were killed along with an RSK soldier then.

The 5th Corps quickly took Pecigrad and open communication lines towards Velika Kladusa. On Friday, August 19, APZB's defenses crumbled and the population fled to Krajina. On Saturday Abdic's special forces were still cruising Kladusa in Yugo cars but on Sunday, at dawn, Abdic crossed into the RSK.

Every one of his calls for talks was rejected earlier. Sarajevo only offered to accept his unconditional surrender and as Bosnia's Zagreb ambassador said a trial.

Sources close to the UN said there was no confirmation that the 5th Corps had committed war crimes. They said there was no largescale destruction in Velika Kladusa, that there was a small number of thefts and that the winners celebrated.

Dudakovic called the refugees home guaranteeing their safety. Those guarantees were also offered by the Croatian government and UN. Bosnian Foreign Minister Irfan Ljubijankic made it clear: ``No one in Europe wants them. It's in their interest to come home.''

But the refugees are refusing to move, fearing revenge, the RSK's ISKRA news agency said, and quoted refugee statements that the 5th Corps had committed serious war crimes. Abdic (seen in Maljevac, Vojnic, Plitvice) told them to hold out and demanded the withdrawal of ``our tormentorsthe 5th Corps.''

The refugee situation is highly dramatic. Krajina has no place to put them, it can't feed them (every bakery in the area is working all out but that doesn't seem to be enough) and the local population doesn't like them very much.

Politika daily reported two babies and a pregnant woman dead of exhaustion. Humanitarian organizations haven't sent in supplies yet. That is partly explained with a lack of supplies and a bowing to the wishes of the Sarajevo government which wants them home at any cost. Croatia's decision to close its borders to the APZB refugees fits into that context. Zagreb sent 10 tons of food which means 227 grams per person if there really are 44,000 refugees.

But thanks to the refugees the APZB story isn't over. Abdic isn't giving up, many say because he will use the interests of others for his own goals.

First there's his pressure on the Sarajevo government; if the refugees don't go home Abdic will accuse Izetbegovic of ethnic cleansing, war crimes etc. He can find a common interest with the Krajina leaders who now have a chance to prove to the world that the Serbs were never involved in expelling populations. Their meeting with Yasushi Akashi, the UN Secretary General's special envoy, was used to secure concessions from UNPROFOR before its mandate expires in September. Caring for the refugees also means some profit from humanitarian aid which could be interesting to Karadzic if the convoys go through his territory. Finally, Abdic is interesting to Zagreb. Ivica Kostovic, the Croatian government's spokesman for humanitarian issues, said: ``Croatia will draw up a plan to settle them temporarily in the UNPA zones.'' That temporary settlement could be used in propaganda as humanitarian reintegration of territories.

The only question still open is whether Abdic has reached political bankruptcy. If the efforts of his refugees to block a column of French peacekeepers is anything to go by he has. He seems to have become political ballast which no one needs. But the APZB is still surrounded by Serbs. Many believe Dudakovic can only continue Abdic's policies, but very quietly. But Abdic could still reach agreement with any interested party and be revived, or if an agreement has already been signed behind his back he could be broken.