Blockades And Scores To Settle

Macedonian Assembly Speaker Stojan Andov recently stated that October 16 was just a possible, not necessarily definite, date for the elections in Macedonia. The very fact that this date has been mentioned is viewed by many as pre-election manoeuvering, a "testing of the waters" by the authorities, along with the publicly voiced disbelief in the possibility of scheduling elections before late November. Just ten strange days later, those in the know in Skopje claimed that the authorities had realized that the situation was critical and that Andov would call parliamentary and presidential elections for October 16.

During these ten strange days the authorities decided that there was no point in postponing the elections until winter and that every day could be of great importance for the final outcome. Macedonia is sandwiched between two blockades - in the north and in the south. The UN sanctions against Yugoslavia are just as detrimental as the Greek blockade of Macedonia. The economy is exhausted and it remains to be seen how much longer "Macedonia will be able to pay the bill for big politics."

According to some pessimistic views and economic estimates, it won't be able to do so for much longer, at least not without financial aid from abroad. The "New York Times" claimed recently that the damages suffered by Macedonia's economy had reached the figure of two billion dollars in November 1993 (when the UN stopped adding up Macedonia's losses incurred through sanctions against Yugoslavia). Monthly losses due to the Greek blockade (introduced on February 16, 1994) add up to around 50 million US dollars. Average August wages stood at 291 DEM, while the consumer basket of basic foodstuffs stood at 293 DEM. Many forecasts point to the fact that late autumn and early winter could prove stormy, with social dissatisfaction peaking some time around elections. Footwear and textile workers have already demonstrated, while the workers of the bus-making plant and the steelworks in Skopje went on strike recently. Unemployment, bankruptcy and eventual worker disturbances aimed at pressuring the government into printing excess quantities of money and stimulating inflation in order to temporarily preserve social peace, have forced the authorities to move up the elections and avoid a radicalization of the political scene.

The opposition is not very enthusiastic about the whole situation because they feel that they have been caught napping. In a statement to VREME, Aleksandar Tortevski of the Democratic Party led by Petar Gosev claims that elections in mid-October would be "a great manipulation by the authorities". Other opposition parties have voiced similar complaints and claims that a one-month-long campaign is too short in the event that elections are really scheduled for October. Both complaints, however, are reminiscent of the usual political pussyfooting ahead of elections. Macedonia is the only newly-created state in the former Yugoslavia which hasn't had early elections in the past four years. It has long been understood that they would be held regularly in autumn 1994. The short one-month campaign suits the ruling party very well; it is a moot question, however, if any of the parties have enough money to conduct a long, expensive campaign.

US businessman and president of the North American All-Macedonian Congress Dzordzi (George) Atanasovski has put up his candidacy in the presidential race. Atanasovski envisages Macedonia's future as a "broad political coalition of a democratic orientation". The legality of his candidacy still has to be established by experts on constitutional and electoral law, since the situation concerning George Atanasovski's citizenship is not quite clear. In the event that his candidacy is confirmed, Atanasovski (whose candidature is greatly reminiscent of former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic's two years ago in Serbia) will not be a very strong contender against current 77 year old Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov, who, it is believed, will head the state during the next five years. Gligorov hasn't yet confirmed his candidacy, but it is considered a "sure thing" in Skopje.

A recent public opinion poll showed that 77% citizens supported his policy. Second on the popularity list is Vasil Tupurkovski, who is supported by 44% of the polled. This is a pretty good rating for a former Yugoslav Presidency member who has not been in politics for some time. Speculations over Tupurkovski's big return to the political scene don't seem to be well-founded. Gligorov's political capital, acquired by managing to preserve Macedonia as an "oasis of peace in the stormy Balkans", cannot be contested by anyone. There are many who view Tupurkovski as a man to be reckoned with when Gligorov leaves the political scene.

It is much more difficult to forecast the results of parliamentary elections which will be held under the old electoral system - a guillotine for small parties, so that many national minorities will not be represented in the Assembly. The biggest chance is given to the ruling Social Democratic Party which has been negotiating forms of cooperation during the campaign with its coalition partner, the Liberal Party, led by Stojan Andov. The dilemma faced by both parties is whether to enter a coalition before or after the elections. Both parties have gained a lot of credit for carrying out Macedonia's secession from Yugoslavia peacefully and for winning international recognition. The current government's fourth coalition partner, the Party of Democratic Prosperity (PDP), which rallies ethnic Albanians in Macedonia, is the biggest enigma in the upcoming elections. In the past year this party has been rocked by disagreements between supporters of a radical solution of the "ethnic Albanian question" in Macedonia and those who urge active participation in the Assembly and power sharing. No one has yet attempted to determine which of the two factions wields greater influence among ethnic Albanians in Macedonia (especially in Western Macedonia). The possible boycott of the elections by ethnic Albanians unhappy with "discriminatory electoral laws" could destabilize the political situation in Macedonia. The Kosovo Albanian language daily "Bujku" recently carried statements by PDP leaders who claimed that the recent census in Macedonia was invalid because 40,000 ethnic Albanians had allegedly been neglected.

Another enigma in the elections will be the fate of the so-called national bloc. The somewhat forgotten Movement for All-Macedonian Action, (MAAK) which rallies many Macedonian intellectuals, recently called all opposition parties to rally together in a Macedonian bloc. The strongest opposition party, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO-DPMNE), would gladly enter into a coalition with the Democratic Party. Party leaders Ljupco Georgijevski and Petar Gosev have allegedly met several times to discuss the matter. Ruling party circles don't hold much faith in such a coalition because it would mean that one of the leaders would have to take a back seat. Georgijevski would bring with him the reputation of the strongest opposition party, whose position is somewhat shaky, while Gosev risks losing his party's center image in a coalition with the rightist VMRO.

Well-known Macedonian director Vladimir Milicin, a distinguished Social Democratic Party member, told VREME that the upcoming elections in Macedonia could be decided by the "economic question". "All other questions at this moment are incidental, and betting on them won't achieve much", said Milicin. "I don't believe that anyone who is serious thinks that they can win by insisting on the question of Macedonia's name, a symbol or a foreign policy issue. That would be playing on the wrong card. The difficult economic situation and its aggravation thanks to the UN sanctions and the Greek blockade, including the problem of corruption, must not be ignored and seeking a way out of this situation is the only sure road to success at elections". Experience from the first multi-party elections in Macedonia held four years ago, on the eve of Yugoslavia's disintegration, showed that a change of political views by the masses in Macedonia could be effected in only a week. After the first electoral round and the great success of parties rallying ethnic Albanians, it took only a few days and several pro-Macedonian happenings to turn the winners into losers, and vice versa. Viewed from this perspective, a month seems a very long time in which dramatic changes of pubic opinion are possible. Various foreign-inspired nationalist happenings are possible, especially by those of Macedonia's neighbors who believe that its chances of survival are slim, i.e., that there are too few internal "integrating forces" which could stop the country from disintegrating. If there is one thing Macedonia has plenty of, then it is a variety of catastrophic and horror options concerning its future. Several such foreign-inspired interventions could disrupt all forecasts and give wing to extremists of all colors who have been kept down successfully over the past four years.

The only well-founded forecast with regard to elections is that we will not have to wait another four years for the next elections.