Sorry, The Pope's Not Coming

(From our special correspondent)

Sarajevo was split into two factions over the past month: one which claimed the Pope was coming for sure and the other which doubted the visit would happen. The first faction listed a number of very important reasons for the visit. Those reasons are still valid. The holy father's spiritual and moral obligations require prayers, concern, and political and diplomatic efforts to save the martyred city where innocent members of all three monotheistic religions (Jewish, Christian and Muhammadan) have been suffering for over two years. They are all children of the same God, whose worldly representative Pope John Paul II is obligated to visit Sarajevo in order to offer comfort and encouragement and to see things for himself.

The Pope's visit to Sarajevo would also help neutralize Karadzic's propaganda that the division of Bosnia is necessary in order to prevent the spread of Islamic fundamentalism into Europe. The Pope's visit to Sarajevo would not only be the fulfillment of his human, moral and priestly duties, but would also have practical benefits.

The Church's political and historic reasons are no less important. Bosnia has been a very important region for the Catholic church for the past seven centuries, the frontier of Christendom and the scene of many efforts by the Bosnian Franciscans, the synonym and symbol of Christianity and the Catholic faith in Bosnia-Herzegovina, to ensure the survival of the Catholic faith. A Pope has never visited the Balkans before. The Bosnian war dictates the need to begin any visit to the Balkans in Sarajevo.

Why? Friar Ljubo Lucic, professor of religious history at Sarajevo University's Franciscan school of Theology and a journalist, told VREME about the significance to the Church of the Pope's visit to Sarajevo: "In short, I agree that the shortsighted and destructive Bosnian policy of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Tudjman regime have nearly destroyed seven centuries of Franciscan and Church efforts in just a year. The Holy Mother Church has clearly stated, through its clergy, including Cardinal Kuharic, that it supports a unified Bosnia and Herzegovina."

Lucic said the federation resembles a stillborn baby which could have been revived by the Pope's visit.

Finally and most importantly, the very fact that the Pope was scheduled to come to Sarajevo first, before Zagreb, would have been a political slap in the face to Tudjman and HDZ Bosnian policy. All observers in Sarajevo agree.

The purely political implications of the visit would take the form of adding pressure on the great powers in order to force them to formulate a strategy for the Balkans and begin to implement it. On the other hand, Tudjman has backed himself into a corner and has to choose between an alliance with Milosevic or Izetbegovic. The Pope's visit to Sarajevo would have meant great political and psychological pressure on the Croatian President to choose Izetbegovic.

The personal reputation and prestige of the Pope would increase among Sarajevans, who are proud of personal courage and the dangers they have survived, because his visit would force him to take greater risks than ordinary people face every day. Or as one observer said in a local cafe: "Even if he got killed here, that's in his job description; he would either become a saint or a martyr."

The pessimists just shook their heads and they turned out to be right even though they weren't happy about it.

Meanwhile, Sarajevo prepared to greet the Pope. They repaired what they could, cleaned up, paved the roads toward Zetra Stadium and the Cathedral. The city was covered with posters bearing the image of the Pope with a map of Bosnia in the background. All of the thresholds in the Presidency Building and Cathedral were removed in order to prevent the Pope from tripping on them (he fractured his hip in a fall earlier this year). They even built an improvised elevator in the Presidency Building. The police were issued new uniforms (the first since the war began) and the sight of two identically dressed policemen on the streets drew the attention of passersby.

Ivo Komsic, a leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP - former communists) went to Rome and was granted an audience with the Pope. Last week he triumphantly returned to Sarajevo and was a guest on a live TV show with a Franciscan Friar and Monsignor Baksic. It was a pleasure to see the former communist explain the Pope's apostolic role ("he not only brings peace - he is peace") and enter into a debate on the finer points of theology. Everyone was happy. The Holiday Inn was filled with astounded reporters and TV crews; Sarajevo's veteran war correspondents hid their press cards in order to avoid the onslaught of amateur journalists.

The better restaurants started earning money, and the Information Ministry said press passes for the Pope's visit would cost between 100 and 200 DM (100 for a limited pass and 200 for access to the Presidency Building and the Cathedral). Some reporters fell for it and they lost the 10% of the price which the Ministry said it would keep to cover its expenses if the visit was cancelled.

The Pale leadership said on several occasions that the Pope would not be safe in Sarajevo; not because they would shoot at him, but because they feared the Muslims would target the Pope and blame the Serbs. Sniper fire intensified over the past two weeks, as did grenade and mortar fire.

Pessimists recalled UN envoy Yasushi Akashi's statement in March of this year that Sarajevo is safer than New York and that all heavy weapons had been withdrawn from the 20 kilometer exclusion zone. They brought up that statement after the Pope's visit was cancelled. Everything was ready. On Tuesday afternoon some streets were hosed down and even the pessimists relaxed. The first report of the cancellation came from sources in the B-H Presidency at around six pm on Tuesday, September 6, but they were met with reservation by journalists ("they're trying to confuse Pale"). That evening UNHCR spokesman Peter Kessler told VREME that the Pope's armored car was ready to leave the Falconara airport near Ancona and that the UN agencies were preparing for the visit, but added that there were some troubling signals. The official report was released at seven but was not taken seriously (except by the pessimists) until the next day. At a regular press briefing, an UNPROFOR spokeswoman denied that Akashi had prevented the Pope's visit with a letter to the Vatican. She said they were very sorry the Pope wasn't coming but that the cancellation wasn't caused by Akashi's recommendations. It is not Akashi's job to advise on possible visits to Sarajevo, she said. Akashi expressed concern regarding the situation, although he hoped that the Pope would come. She also recalled a statement by General Subiru, UNPROFOR's commander in Sarajevo, that "we can't guarantee 100% safety. The decision is up to the Vatican", and she added that the UN had not recommended a cancellation of the visit. The press smelled a rat and a scandal was in sight.

Alija Izetbegovic used the start of an international conference on rebuilding Sarajevo as an excuse for a press conference in the Holiday Inn. He was very angry. He called the cancellation "great political damage for Bosnia" and added that Karadzic's Serbs were not the only ones to blame for the cancelled visit because they wouldn't dare shoot at the Pope. He blamed the UN and Akashi in particular for intentionally preventing the visit. "There were no justifiable reasons to cancel the visit. Enemies of this state are involved in this decision. I was personally prepared to accompany the Pope during his entire visit. He would have been as safe as I am in Sarajevo," Izetbegovic said.

Journalists asked him about Akashi's motives, but Izetbegovic refused to speculate and just called the Japanese diplomat's behavior "damaging to Bosnia" adding that he wished someone else would take over his job, "someone who understands Bosnia better".

Journalists then demanded to know the contents of the Akashi letter to the Vatican since UNPROFOR's story was very different. Izetbegovic said the letter had not been sent to him (he saw a copy), that he would not release someone else's letter and that they should ask Monsignor Montersi, the Papal nuncio in Sarajevo. He recounted part of the letter: "Akashi says there is a high level of risk. Abstract dangers are presented as specific in the letter and it was the decisive reason for the cancellation of the visit... We guaranteed security from the airport to the city, in the city and back to the airport. If the Pope had known the facts he would have decided to come. I feel he has been deceived."

Izetbegovic accused UNPROFOR of carelessness, tolerating ceasefire violations, and ignoring the rules of the exclusion zone. He said that, for example, 11 shells had landed in Sarajevo the previous day, and added that if UNPROFOR had reacted in time, as it should have, there would have been no need for security concerns. He also said that the visits by Turkish Prime Minister Tansu Ciler, Czech President Vaclav Havel and US Defence Secretary William Perry had been cancelled in similar circumstances. "Others besides Karadzic are involved in all of this..." When asked who else was involved, Izetbegovic quoted the New Testament: "As Jesus says: you will know them by their acts". After some more questions, journalists concluded that the others were Britain and France.

The search for the Akashi letter began immediately. The ONASA agency (Oslobodjenje daily) published the letter on Thursday morning, claiming it had come from "sources close to the UN". The letter (whose authentity had not been denied or confirmed by Thursday afternoon, when this article was finished) makes the following security assessment: the risk is assessed as "dangerous", not because any of the warring sides could attack the Pope (it's not in their interest), but because of the possibility of "hidden attacks by individuals or small groups with the aim of blaming others"; it says that "it's impossible to guarantee security"; that UN aircraft have been targeted, etc. The letter makes no mention of levels of security, an important difference between the statements by UNPROFOR and General Subiru. Namely, not being able to guarantee 100% security is completely different from not being able to guarantee security at all.

There are many different interpretations of the new situation. First, few in Sarajevo are prepared to believe Pope John Paul II cancelled the visit over security concerns. A visibly disappointed Friar Ljubo Lucic first said that the postponement of the visit was not such a great loss because it had given the people some hope and the Pope's spiritual presence was felt. In language more akin to the Jesuits than the Franciscans, he later said that the visit was perhaps postponed because of new political developments concerning the Bosnia crisis. Apparantly, he had in mind the Contact Group meeting in Berlin, which had not ended its session by that time. Friar Lucic said that "a sharper stand could have been taken if the Holy Father had come here". He added that the Pope "would perhaps have postponed the visit to Zagreb if they hadn't invested so much money into preparations". A Western diplomat, who understandably wanted to remain anonymous, said he thought Monsignor Montersi had come to the pragmatic conclusion that the benefits would not outweigh the risks during the Pope's visit to Sarajevo. The Pope's message to Sarajevo and Bosnia, read in Serbo-Croatian on Thursday morning in Castel Gandolfo, spoke of the need to forgive everyone as the only way to end the tragedy. No one knows whether that same message would have been read to the 20,000 Sarajevans who were expected at Zetra stadium.

When asked about the change in plans, people just shrugged. "The Pope's a mouse", kids say (mouse in Sarajevo is far from a compliment); everyone's waiting for the visit to Croatia in the hope that the Pope will at least give Tudjman a slap on the wrist, since he has already decided not to come to Sarajevo. The Muslim-Croat Federation is not functioning. Izetbegovic even refused to accompany Federation President Kresimir Zubak to talks with US Undersecretary of State Holbrook. He described the problem in uncharacteristically strong language in an interview to the Split daily "Slobodna Dalmacija".

Time and patience is running out. When Izetbegovic rose to leave his press conference on Wednesday, after saying that B-H could decide to buy arms if the embargo is lifted since "this is a question of survival; UNPROFOR can't save us this winter, only a good defence can", Jonathan Landay of the "Christian Science Monitor" asked:

"Mr. President, are you aware that the lifting of the arms embargo means sacrificing the enclaves in Eastern Bosnia?"

"I know!" Izetbegovic replied, and that was perhaps the only real news out of Sarajevo in the past week.