Word Games

What unusual body will descend on the border between Yugoslavia and the Bosnian Serb Republic (RS) and open the way to the easing of sanctions?

According to the patriotic press in Belgrade, it will be a "civilian humanitarian body" and not international observers, because observers would mean that our sovereignty was in jeopardy, while the word "body" doesn't mean anything. Be as it may, Belgrade has agreed to allow 135 internationally trustworthy persons to arrive at the border and "verify the contents" of the convoys carrying aid - medicine and food for Bosnian Serbs from Serbia. They will monitor the work of Yugoslav institutions controlling traffic bound for Bosnia, and will be able to make recommendations, but not to control the vehicles directly. In return, sanctions against Yugoslavia in the fields of science, culture and sports will be lifted and the airports will reopen for civilian flights, but fuel will remain embargoed.

The arrival of observers who "are not observers" is typical of the domestic political scene. When Serbia introduced sanctions against Bosnian Serbs it admitted to the existence of a border on the Drina River and a hermetically sealed off border at that. Observers? Out of the question, said Yugoslav Foreign Minister Vladislav Jovanovic when saying good-bye to Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev in Belgrade. The patriots on duty kept shouting that no one was going to jeopardize our sovereignty. Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic then made it clear that he would not be able to agree to the presence of foreign troops in Yugoslavia, but in the end allowed for the possibility of the arrival of civilian customs inspectors and "similar officials". Western diplomats conciliatorily stated that "it wasn't important how the agreement would be presented to the Serbian public or what name would be given to those who would monitor, in the name of the international community, Serbia's sanctions against the Bosnian Serbs." Serbian Vice Prime Minister Slobodan Babic reiterated that the arrival of military observers would be a direct violation of Yugoslavia's sovereignty. "There is talk that the observers could be members of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the Red Cross or the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), even diplomats - but without the competency to control anything", Babic categorically stated. The days passed and information appeared in the following order: the international observers would be headed by Swedish colonel Bo Pelnes who has been working with the UN since the beginning of the crisis in Yugoslavia. Pelnes came to Yugoslavia in 1992 when Indian General Satish Nambiar was UNPROFOR commander. Pelnes headed the UN military observer team and took part in negotiations over Mostar and in Krajina. However, this time he will be acting as a civilian, as the "coordinator of the civilian mission".

Most of the mission members will come from Nordic countries and it appears that Switzerland is also interested in participating.

On Wednesday, the Belgrade daily "Politika" said that "Yugoslavia's stand that observers should not be posted along the Drina had been accepted", and concluded that this "success was the result of Milosevic's diplomacy". The Belgrade daily "Politika Ekspres" carried the headlines "International Community Not Considering Possibility Of Setting Up Monitors On Drina" and "Border Without Observers". On the same day the Belgrade daily "Borba" carried the headline "Agreement Over Observers" and cited Co-Chairman of the Conference on the former Yugoslavia Thorwald Stoltenberg who demanded in a letter that Milosevic allow the installion of international observers along Serbia's and Montenegro's western borders.

Ljubivoje Acimovic, an expert on international law, told VREME that claims that observers would not be posted along the border were nonsense because the term "observers" has not been precisely defined in any international legal act. The members of the mission are persons with the international authority to observe what is happening on the spot. Observers have appeared in various ways in different crisis areas and often monitor whether or not UN Security Council proclamations are being observed, whether the matter concerns a cease-fire, arms shipments or something else.

What all these men have in common is that they are coming here in the interests of international peace and security (just like UNPROFOR), since the war in Bosnia has long been seen as "endangering international peace and security".

What is important is that sanctions will be eased only after the above-mentioned observers reach the conclusion that the border along the Drina River will remain closed for everything except the passage of humanitarian aid and until Stoltenberg and the UN Secretary-General inform the Security Council of the matter. UK Ambassador to the UN, David Hannay, cautioned that in the event that the border was reopened, sanctions would be re-introduced.

Acimovic explains that the duration of their stay depends upon the situation. Sometimes they stay for three or six months, but their mandate can be prolonged for as long as it is deemed necessary and for as long as both sides are in agreement over the matter. The length of the mission can be determined by the problem itself - in our case, for example, until peace is reached in Bosnia. It could happen that the authorities in Belgrade beg the observers to stay as long as possible, because Lord Owen said that the observers would be withdrawn as soon as there were any suspicions that the embargo against the Bosnian Serbs was being violated, which means that sanctions would remain in place.

"If we put aside the general truth that absolute sovereignty does not exist, because all must observe some international rules and none can do as they please and go unpunished, then we have two situations in which sovereignty can be violated", said Acimovic. "Sovereignty can be violated by the use of force and can be limited either by the state in question or the international community in the interests of peace. If the matter concerns a self-limitation of sovereignty, the state undertakes certain obligations, it enters a certain arrangement, or submits to a certain regime of security. The arrival of observers on the Drina River is not a violation of sovereignty, but its limitation with Yugoslavia's approval. The matter concerns the passive presence of a third party which, by its very presence, limits sovereignty only in the broadest sense of the term. It can be asked whether or not this limitation is the result of a freely expressed wish or the result of blackmail. An answer to the question: "Has Yugoslavia been blackmailed?" is arrived at with the question: "Why are observers coming in the first place? - to monitor the decision to close the border. If the closing of the border, as is officially claimed, is only a continuation of Belgrade's peace policy, then there can be no talk of coercion, just of continuity. If, however, the matter concerns a change of course in the direction of peace, the forcing of such a change is legal and positive and cannot be criticized", concluded Acimovic.

Observers have never been a welcome measure, but it is the state which chooses what suits it best. This means that the alternative to the acceptance of observers would, according to this state's estimate, be worse.

A Difficult Comeback

What are the next steps to be taken toward the easing of sanctions? It would be logical for them to be lifted as they were introduced, through UN Security Council resolutions. However, experts do not believe that this will be the sequence of steps. It would be more realistic to expect some intermediary steps which would take into consideration certain differences between Serbia and Montenegro, and especially the interests of neighboring countries which have suffered great losses because of the obligation to observe the sanctions against Yugoslavia. There has been talk that the criteria of the Sanctions Committee will be eased, which means that there will be fewer restrictions on issuing import permits. Unless there is some sabre-rattling in the near future, the next step could be the lifting of the ban on river and sea traffic. This could then be followed by the renewal of transit traffic, communications, trade, the defrosting of capital and the renewal of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Wold Bank. The final step would be readmission to the United Nations and the CSCE. Problems are bound to arise in this field because the Yugoslav state leadership will probably try to avoid submitting a membership application, calling upon continuity with the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. All in all, few believe that the US, whose representatives keep repeating that they are skeptical of Milosevic and do not trust him, will allow the complete lifting of sanctions by the Security Council. If the war option once again became a part of official policy, Russia could easily veto the reintroduction of sanctions. That is why only some of the sanctions will be lifted while other forms of easing the sanctions will be sought, such as easing enforcement. There is unofficial talk that European Union observers who helped the Rumanians monitor the Danube have already been withdrawn.