Socialists Beaten Hands Down

When confronted with the rather meager figures from this autumn's local elections in Serbia, one could initially conclude that the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) is currently considerably far from being in its best form and that the Democratic Party (DS) led by Zoran Djindjic, who has been carrying on a permanent election campaign and attempting to cover as much of Serbia as possible for weeks, is in the best condition. Vojislav Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) also figures prominent, while it's as if the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) does not even exist. It seems that the "deradicalization of Serbia", begun at last December's elections, has gotten considerably under way.

The series of local elections began in September in Zemun (Belgrade suburb), where the DS candidate beat the SPS candidate for the empty alderman seat in the Belgrade City Council during the second round. The ruling party marked its only victory in Pancevo (Vojvodina) during these local tests of the citizens' electoral mood. Their candidate replaced a DEPOS (Democratic Movement of Serbia, made up of the Serbian Renewal Movement - SPO, New Democracy and the Civic Alliance) alderman, who had resigned, in the Pancevo Municipal Council. The DSS candidate won the council seat in the center of Zrenjanin (Vojvodina), while the opposition also won in neighboring Elemir - this time the DS. Last week, a candidate from this party received the most votes in the electoral district of Nova Mala in Pirot (eastern Serbia), but the election results were disqualified because of "anonymous objections by anonymous citizens" regarding certain irregularities during the voting. The opposition also recently gained another council seat which was later disputed in Cacak (central Serbia) during local elections. The SPO claims that the victory belongs to them, while the other opposition parties (DSS, DS and the Serbian Liberal Party - SLS) protested and claim that the victory belongs to all of them even though the candidate is a member of the SPO. In upcoming weeks, local elections are scheduled in two electoral districts in Knjazevac (central Serbia) and then the Savski Venac and Vracar districts of Belgrade.

The current 5 victories to 1 defeat for the opposition in local elections (with the possibility of an even better score in the end) are nevertheless not convincing enough to lead to any confident conclusions. In some other environment, where local elections have an incomparably greater importance and serve as a true pre-election barometer, these 5 victories to 1 defeat would be enough for entire analyses. Here, they serve only to remind us of the logic that says "it might happen, but it doesn't necessarily have to!" Therefore, the opposition's convincing victories in Elemir and Pirot (if the election results in Nova Mala are recognized as legitimate), where the Socialists have always previously enjoyed smooth victories, can be considered "arguments" of the "it might happen" type. One could say similar things about the fact that those going to the polls were mainly older voters, which could be interpreted as an improvement in the rating of some opposition parties among this segment of the population (traditional SPS supporters). Perhaps it can be attributed to uncommonly good cooperation between opposition parties. In some electoral districts, they presented only one, joint candidate (the DS and the SPO made such an agreement on the eve of elections in Knjazevac).

At the same time, all of this "does not have to mean much" if one keeps in mind that voter turnout was generally between 15 and 25 percent at these local elections, that the party propaganda machines were not working at full steam, that the strongest party "cards" were not played, that agreements, coalitions and "the joining of the incompatible" (the current positions of the SPO and the DS, for example) are much easier to achieve at the local level than at the national...

Those who have already shown themselves to be in good form claim that the local elections not only show a true picture of the citizens' mood but that they also confirm that the opposition can carry itself equally with the Socialists. The Socialists are silent about what happened to them in Zemun, Cacak, Zrenjanin and Elemir and assert that the results of training-matches cannot be taken too seriously. For now, their twelfth player - Radio Television Serbia - remains silent. Those acquainted with politics say that the true value of the current 5 victories to 1 defeat, or whether "pedestrian Serbia can really defeat the one on television", will only be seen when the twelfth player begins to play seriously.