U-Turn in Ten Days

Something had changed during the previous ten days. Reports of Kosovo Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova's upcoming meetings in the United States with Anthony Lake, Strobe Talbott and Madeline Albright, were an indication that the Americans are attempting to activate the formula "Krajina for Kosovo" at the time of their u-turn on Bosnia.

Christopher visited Europe during the middle of the week in the hope that he could smooth out the differences that have appeared between the allies and NATO over Bosnian policy after the recent bombings that were quickly assessed as counterproductive in Europe. He announced the possibility of holding a new international conference to be preceded by indirect negotiations between the warring parties in Bosnia.

After Brussels, Christopher flew to Budapest for the CSCE summit on "preventive diplomacy" - the prompt resolution of regional and ethnic disputes in order to prevent them from growing into armed conflicts.

On Wednesday, November 30, Douglas Hurd assessed that the Bosnian crisis brings into question the credibility of NATO, and stated that "there are people who believe that NATO could have resolved the situation in Bosnia", but that this was "an unreal point of view" (Radio Belgrade added on Thursday that American Senate Republican leader Robert Dole, who asked that UNPROFOR withdraw from Bosnia, was coldly received in London and that Prime Minister John Major did not even accompany him to the door at the end of his visit).

Hurd assessed that it was still possible to achieve peace through negotiations and that UNPROFOR would be able to remain in Bosnia, and mentioned "some kind of pressure" that would bring the Serbs back to the negotiating table, which would allow Britain, France, Germany, Russia and the United States to recreate the platform that fell apart because of the events around Bihac. However, during a pause at the  Brussels meeting, he also told reporters that he was no longer that much of an optimist. Anthony Lake had already announced that the United States was not going to strengthen the negotiating position of any side.

A number of sources announce that, at the Brussels meeting on Thursday and Friday, the NATO heads of diplomacy could accept the new Contact Group initiative to guarantee the Bosnian Serbs recognition as a state entity and the possibility of confederal ties to Serbia if they accept the territorial division proposed earlier, with the possibility of agreement on territorial exchange with the Muslims and Croats, and if a general ceasefire and dimilitarization of the Bihac enclave is achieved as a preliminary. BETA news agency announced that NATO sources in Brussels claim that even the Americans are prepared to accept such a position now.

Paris, London and Bonn are now clearly stating what Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev whispered to President Milosevic two months ago - that the Serbs in Bosnia would be allowed to enter a confederation with Serbia, just as had been established between the Muslim-Croat Federation and Croatia.

Kozyrev came to Belgrade to meet with Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic immediately after his visit to Bonn where he met with German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel. Kozyrev informed Russian reporters that Washington had given its approval for a meeting of the Contact Group, which meant that a new offer might be made. The Russian Minister spoke of the search for "a point of contact" and that the ministers would come out against an escalation of the war and for a political resolution of the conflict. He said that Russia had concrete proposals for a return to a political approach, but did not say precisely what they were, just as he did not do so a week later in Paris, on December 1, when he repeated that some new, yet unmentioned, initiatives existed, but that he could not say what they are. However, last week he rather definitely denied the existence of a new version of the peace plan and repeated that "the Contact Group plan is the only one for now", adding that there are a serious of proposals that are being considered by the Contact Group on various levels, that there are many proposals, and that one new proposed "package" has been conditionally named "Plan B". It is important that he expressed the hope that relations between Washington and Moscow would not be upset.

It is being announced that Christopher intends to convince the European allies of something that already represents the beginning of a new approach - the application of a project of so-called "weapons reduction" in Bosnia; that is, to force both warring sides to volunteer to destroy all heavy weapons and prepare the road to peaceful agreement in this way. It was also announced that Christopher might energetically oppose the idea to further loosen the sanctions regime against Yugoslavia, whereas on Thursday Kozyrev repeated that the sanctions against Belgrade should be lifted.