Greek Shadow

A Lithuanian-Estonian recipe is likely to be used in the case of Macedonia, meaning that the process of its recognition will be slower than in the case of Croatia and Slovenia The Macedonian television see the international recognition of Macedonia as a done thing: Macedonian TV was on Wednesday evening January 15 already celebrating Macedonian independence, regardless of the warning of dr Denko Malevski, Macedonian foreign minister that the people should not succumb to premature euphoria. For, according to certain realistic analysts from Skoplje (the capital of Macedonia) the Lithuanian-Estonian recipe will probably be used in the international recognition of Macedonia, meaning it will be slower than the international recognition of Slovenia and Croatia.

At the press conference staged earlier that day, Mr. Malevski said that "we are now faced with the tricky part of our struggle for independence and it means we should show that we are capable of a democratic approach to social problems". In that context Malevski put a special emphasis on two problems: firstly, "we should achieve economic independence, which means that our economy should be capable of cooperating with others" and secondly, "we should prove that democracy is possible here, as well as coexistence with people of different nationality and religion" because "unlike power, democracy can not be achieved overnight". Malevski expressed his belief that "the next step will be for the EC countries which find it in their interest to recognize Macedonia to do so". Sofia was the first to announce its official recognition of Macedonia. The Bulgarian Prime Minister Philip Dimitrov has said that the recognition of independence of four Yugoslav republics represents "an official orientation of Bulgaria as well as the desire to establish peace and cooperation in the

Balkans". According to TANJUG, the "historic decision" of the Bulgarian government received a standing ovation of MPs in Parliament. The leader of the parliamentary fraction of the Bulgarian Democratic League Aleksandar Jordanov commented on the decision by saying that "Bulgaria is now taking a decisive step with regards to the development of relations with our Bulgarian brothers in Macedonia".

Still, it should not be forgotten that the decision of Bulgaria to recognize Macedonia was made after the visit of the Bulgarian Foreign Minister to Germany on the day of the recognition. Minister Ganev said that Bulgaria must state clearly that it sees "the borders with Macedonia, as well as with other neighbouring countries as being permanent" and that the relations with Greece and Turkey "are extremely important for Bulgaria and they will continue regardless of the existing differences". On Thursday, the circles close to the Macedonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs were already speculating that until January 31, 15 countries from Europe and the world, EC countries among them, have announced the recognition of Macedonia. In his official statement on these issues the Macedonian president Kiro Gligorov stressed that the Macedonian state leadership has from the very beginning been "convinced" that the Badinter Committee would give green light for the recognition of Macedonia. "That is an act of historical justice", says Gligorov, "and the European twelve have passed a political decision-as you can see justice and politics don't always go hand in hand". Asked by VREME to comment on the speculation of the French that the recognition of Macedonia could aggravate the Yugoslav crisis, Gligorov decisively stated that the recognition has precisely the opposite effect: "The act of recognition would be the definite stabilizing factor in this part of the Balkans, since the recognition of Macedonian state borders would put an end to the territorial pretensions of its neighbours".

President of the Macedonian Parliament Stojan Andov says to VREME that "the attitude of France is not well-founded" and it means that Paris, if it sticks to its present position, "has succumbed to the wrong kind of pressure". Mr. Andov expects that "the international recognition of Macedonia will go well", and that only Greece is problematic. "Greece will soon realize that it will only lose with such an attitude, since Europe has, on the basis of the Arbitration Committee made the most competent decision that Macedonia can be recognized".

The Turkish Prime Minister Sulejman Demirel, in the exclusive interview to "New Macedonia" states that "Turkey will recognize Macedonia by the end of this month". "We could do it today but we wanted to make a comprehensive overview to make sure that the recognition won't have the undesired effect". This was precisely the reason the Turkish Foreign Minister left for Rome on January 17 in order to "check the Turkish stand concerning the recognition of all four Yugoslav republics" with De Michaellis. Milosevic's visit to Ankara was scheduled for last weekend and it is believed that the Prime Ministers of Turkey and Greece will meet at the end of this month in Switzerland. Sulejman Demirel decisively stated in the same interview that he finds "the attitudes of some neighbouring countries towards Macedonia worrying", stressing a few times that he thinks they "have territorial pretensions" towards Macedonia and that "that is the reason they require impossible conditions (for the recognition of Macedonia), unrecorded in the world history.

The well informed circles in Skoplje comment on Turkey's position:"considering that these two neighbouring countries (Turkey and Macedonia) are trying to promote themselves into important political factors, Turkey, respecting the 20th century traditions, refuses to stay passive and let its neighbours undermine its serious global position - these two neighbouring countries never had autonomous political spheres of influence and they cannot, along with Serbia and its implicit allies, be the only ones to establish order in the Balkans".

Some in Skoplje think that Serbia, if it really wants to establish its diplomatic and political initiative in this part of the Balkans, would have to recognize the independence and sovereignty of Macedonia as soon as possible. It would not be the first time Milosevic would surprise Macedonia. Although it would probably be the first pleasant surprise.