Serbia In the Broken Mirror

As could be expected, Serbia is now facing its political, moral and cultural defeat and a domestic drama. The present Serbian regime as well as its opposition have suffered a political defeat which, according to some, annihilate the results of all wars Serbia took part in during the last hundred years. A state that Serbs considered their own has disappeared, they have become a lonely, isolated and disgraced nation, misunderstood and condemned by the international community.

"If the administrative borders have been recognized, who will answer for the loss of human life in this war?", asked one TV viewer last night.

The Crown Prince Aleksandar Karadjordjevic has expressed his deep concern at the recognition of Croatian and Slovenia and the disintegration of the country his grand-father has created.

Serbian public, which has been told that Germany is to be blamed for everything, did not expect that Slovenia and Croatia would be recognized by so many countries. The opposition is listing Milosevic's mistakes. Desimir Tosic, a member of the Democratic Party' s Main Board, says that the ruling party is to be blamed for the present situation in Serbia and that its politics has, to the greatest possible extent, contributed to the condemnation of Serbia by the international community.

SPO (Serbian Revival Party) also blames Milosevic and his men for the disintegration of Yugoslavia and the present Serbian predicament and reminds that it all started when the provincial-minded people were given the opportunity to shape the national fate.

Vojislav Kostunica, a democrat, is of the opinion that the end of Yugoslavia represents a defeat of the Serbian politics. The status of Serbs outside Serbia (both in Krajina and bigger towns), which have been officially protected by the present Serbian regime, has not been resolved. Kosta Cavoski of the Liberal Party thinks that Milosevic made a strategic mistake when he made the EC an arbiter in the YU- crisis, misinterpreting its complex domestic scene. Milosevic, who was forced to give up his war campaign, is now trying to prove that he did not lose anything. At the time when the number of countries recognizing Slovenia and Croatia is constantly increasing, he accuses the EC for jeopardizing peace...

Milan Babic, the president of the Republic of Serbian Krajina, is still against demilitarization and disarmament of his troops, but has the nerve to say that he is all for peace. In his letter to the UN Secretary General he suggests that the question of borders should be resolved by the winners of the World War I.

The Democratic Party has in its carefully phrased announcement said that the peace-keeping troops should be welcomed, but also that Milosevic should recognize Babic's sovereignty. The democrats are now trying to come closer to the Krajina Serbs and somehow apologize for not having supported them more fervently in the past or maybe they just want to pin Milosevic's ears back. Some of them like to think that this announcement was actually aimed at asking Milosevic why he entered the war in the first place if he is now accepting Serbian autonomy in Croatia and thus making a concession to Tudjman. Serbian

foreign affairs minister Vladislav Jovanovic, however, keeps saying that Milosevic never told Tudjman he would accept autonomy for Krajina. Serbian right wing parties have accused Milosevic of "flirting with the left" and have supported Milan Babic unanimously. Only Seselj tried to reconcile them by putting himself up for the role of the mediator. It seems that the assumption that Milosevic will get rid of Seselj after the war was wrong. He obviously plans to use him for a while longer.

The regime that has already admitted its guilt for the March 9 riots in Belgrade by sacrificing the police chief and a few faithful ones in the Belgrade TV, has these days brought legal action against Vuk Draskovic, the leader of SPO, accusing him of organizing the demonstrations. That is probably the realization of Milosevic's promise (given after 1990 elections) to deal with "the backward forces". It turned out that it did not refer to the armed right wing extremists - Milosevic still thinks he can control them and disarm them when he thinks it necessary.

Just like any political trial, this case will turn against the regime even before the proceedings start. Judging by what the president of the Belgrade Court of Justice said in an interview to "Politika", the indictment has practically been withdrawn. This should not, however, be taken as a proof of the court autonomy, and even if it were, it would certainly not be published in "Politika". Neither is it likely that this whole judicial affair was started on the initiative of a diligent District Attorney. If that were true, would the SPS vice-president himself try to justify it publicly? If Milosevic has made a few strategic mistakes, that does not mean that he has lost his power instincts. When he realized that the indictment bothered him more than it did Draskovic, he probably decided to give the whole thing up.

The indictment affair, however, gave the opposition the opportunity to alarm the public by making known its conclusion that political repression is getting stronger in Serbia. All the self-respecting parties, including many smaller ones, voiced their views concerning this matter. They asked for the indictment to be withdrawn, stating that the actual Serbian authorities - the government and the President himself - are to be blamed for the bloodshed in the streets of Belgrade on March 9, 1991. The Movement for the Protection of the Human Rights and a few independent unions have promised to inform the international organizations about this.

Milosevic has, in the past months, appointed his most confidential men (whom many consider to be totally compromised) on the most influential posts, closing his eyes before their gravest mistakes and eliminating those who could bother him or have already done so. The case of Mrs. Ugukalo, an SPS member, can be listed among the more comic indications that there is some kind of a general order for attacking the opposition: she has, along with a hundred other citizens of a certain New Belgrade borough, called for the resignation of Mihailo Kovac, an MP of the opposition Yugoslav Party, with the explanation that "he is flirting with the opposition!". By the end of last year Milosevic has shown his willingness to modify somewhat his views on Kosovo. Skeljzen Malici of the Kosovo Parliamentary Party thinks that, unless Kosovo is given a special status, it is possible that the Albanians will start the armed mutinies.

As far as the personnel is concerned, Milosevic is still concentrating on Serbs from outside Serbia (mostly Montenegrins and Bosnians), since he obviously thinks that the people from central Serbia are not sufficiently devoted to him. There have been no confirmations on the news about his split with Borisav Jovic (SPS president and a former president of the federal presidency), although there are repeated rumours about it.

There is speculation (mostly wishful thinking of its authors) that Milosevic might even come into conflict with the army and, if hard pressed, it would eventually bring them into the open and accuse of starting this war. This is probably just a delusion, the officers and the army pensioners are his

strategic reserve. Some of them will be praising Seselj, but they will, at the same time, be on Milosevic's payroll. They have, at least, been paid well in this war.

Whatever Milosevic does in the future, the opposition will probably accuse him for losing the state, for thwarting the ambition of Serbs to gather in one state and for breaking the vow he made on June 28 1989 in Kosovo when he said that Serbia has, after six long centuries, regained its dignity.