Bosnia on my Mind

When Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic announced a new peace plan for Bosnia live on CNN late one night, the reactions in the world fell into three categories: confusion, disturbance and reservation. None of them were caused by the content of the eight-point plan (general unlimited ceasefire and vague promises); it didn't sound realistic or new, unlike the fact that Karadzic named Jimmy Carter as the mediator who achieved it.

In New York, Boutros Boutros Ghali immediately demanded that Carter's visit be "fully synchronized" with the efforts of other numerous international community representatives (UN, EU and Contact Group). He later calmed down after a phone conversation with Carter and feebly welcomed the visit.

Official Washington sent out two signals: Mike McCurry (State Department spokesperson) was skeptical, but mentioned a certain "very good talk" which Carter had recently had with Secretary Of State Warren Christopher, while Madeleine Allbright (U.S. ambassador to the UN) said that she did not have faith in Carter's "miracles" and "private diplomacy". Still, Washington stated clearly that it had no intention of sabotaging Carter's mission and that, in principle, it has nothing against the former president getting peace negotiations moving in Bosnia.

The least excitement came from the government in Sarajevo, where Carter was more or less seen as a tourist. Haris Silajdzic coldly told him that his government had accepted the Contact Group maps and was expecting a response and not counting on anything else. Later, Alija Izetbegovic underscored that stand with a statement that Carter is welcome, but not as a negotiator. "If he wants to see the situation in Bosnia first hand, we agree," he said.

The most interesting place was Belgrade, where for two whole days the regime had no official reaction. Officials kept quiet and the state media consistently ignored the new initiative. State TV (RTS) even carefully removed reports on the Carter visit from its rebroadcasts of satellite news. On the other hand, president Slobodan Milosevic's cabinet made a number of statements with no mention of Carter in them, but did announce almost frantic diplomatic activities for the Serbian president. In just two days, according to those statements, Milosevic was scheduled to meet separately with Owen, Stoltenberg and Contact Group ambassadors and make an official visit to Athens to exchange "almost identical views on peace and stability in the Balkans" with prime minister Andreas Papandreou. The prevailing impression is that Milosevic was scared that Karadzic would take away his "Balkan strongman" title and was trying to prove that he could rally much more powerful people.

That effort was expressed in a comment on Tuesday, a day after the Athens visit, in Belgrade's Politika daily. In his Guests From Belgrade in Pale article, Djordje Martic ranked Carter with Serbian Democratic party (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica and Democratic Party (DS) president Zoran Djindjic and compared their visits to Pale. "In international terms, the introduction of Carter is an effort to oust Belgrade and to replace Milosevic with Karadzic", Martic said. He added that the maneuver could permanently marginalize Belgrade and put the sanctions issue in the background, condemning Serbia to permanent isolation and doom. It seemed that Belgrade shared Moscow's view that Carter's visit was one of Karadzic's tricks. At the same time, in Greece, Milosevic suddenly toned things down and said the Carter mission was "a step towards peace in the Balkans by US policy". Things got even more confusing when a rumor hit Belgrade saying Carter's invitation to visit Pale came from Milosevic and that it had been organized by a number of people with connections in both Belgrade and Washington. The key figures mentioned are former federal prime minister Milan Panic, former state television director Dusan Mitevic and David Binder, a New York Times editor who allegedly conveyed Milosevic's message to Karadzic for a formal invitation to Carter. Suddenly, who invited Carter became more important than anything even his mission.

"It's true that I was in Pale in mid-October and I met with Karadzic," Binder told VREME. "Karadzic complained that the international community had completely isolated him and that he was desperate. Someone mentioned Carter and Karadzic asked me how he could get in contact with him. I told him the best way to do it was through an emissary. He seems to have listened to me." Binder added that he doesn't know who the intermediary was and added that Carter's mission seemed chaotic, just like the rumors surrounding it.

The dilemma was broken by Milosevic himself just a day after his visit to Greece and meetings with Owen, Stoltenberg and the Contact Group. He received Carter. "There are many different assessments of president Carter's visit to this region; some are negative, some are mildly positive," the Serbian president said. "It is my firm impression that president Carter is here with only one goal: to contribute to peace." Milosevic said a peace agreement would soon be reached in Bosnia and that it will "create conditions for the Security Council to finally lift the sanctions which are punishing an entire nation". Just 24 hours later, Carter received another even greater compliment. In a guest appearance on CNN's Larry King Live, Milosevic said Carter was "the only American who really understood the situation in former Yugoslavia" and underscored his conviction that peace will reach Bosnia in the spring.

However, a better look at the agreement signed by Karadzic, Mladic and Carter in Pale doesn't give any motive for optimism. The Bosnian Serbs, who initially insisted on a permanent ceasefire to turn the front lines into a type of state border, agreed to Bosnian government conditions to limit the ceasefire to four months and that's all. Karadzic didn't make any concession in terms of the Contact Group maps: on the contrary, he complicated things further with a messy proposal on dividing Sarajevo. The Serb half would later be traded for Muslim enclaves in eastern Bosnia, access to the sea and natural resources. In other words, the Bosnian Serb leader is up to his usual tricks of offering what he doesn't have in exchange for what he wants. There's little hope that the Bosnian government, despite all the slaps it's getting from one side (Mladic's army) and the other (the international community), could agree to handing Muslim-controlled territory over for the Serbs to use as negotiating chips.

If Carter didn't achieve anything more than another (who knows which) ceasefire, why is there a wave of optimism from Belgrade and Washington? The answer lies in the fact that Jimmy Carter's jump into the Balkan cauldron breathed some life into the endangered species called the peace process which, apart from being a source of income to so many bureaucrats, is now a must in everyone's election campaign. Internal policy reasons (Serb and American) made a new big conference on former Yugoslavia welcome with the accompanying debates on constitutive nations, administrative borders and new maps, but all sides would hold fewer trump cards than three years ago. The profit is short-term but valuable and there's something for everyone: Karadzic (and Milosevic) score points internationally, the Bosnians, thanks to a ceasefire, keep Bihac, and Clinton would be under less pressure from the Republican congress to lift the arms embargo and there would be less chance of definitively ruining relations with Russia and Europe.

Perhaps the best expression of the chances for peace in Bosnia next spring came in a poll by Beta news agency during Carter's visit to Banja Luka. None of the 30 people polled had anything good to say about Carter's mission. "Carter should be taken hostage and released when we get international recognition," one man said. Possibly, if that happened, another retired statesman would appear on a new mediation mission.

The President and the Businessmen

by Aleksandar Ciric

Last week, anybody even remotely considered a political analyst was trying to guess who got former US president Jimmy Carter started on his peace mission. The most persistent rumor (allegedly so reliable it didn't have to be checked out) said the offer came directly from the Serbian president's office. Allegedly, the mediator was businessman and former Yugoslav prime minister Milan Panic who was egged into action by his business partner and, allegedly, personal friend, former Serbian state Radio and TV director Dusan Mitevic.

"No, no, no," Mitevic told VREME. "I don't know who brought Carter in, but I don't believe the offer came from Belgrade. It came from Pale." Mitevic is experienced enough to have given more of an answer.

Milan Panic, also courteous and prepared, answered our questions about his personal involvement in preparing the Carter mission. He answered in English (interestingly not in his native Serbian) through his spokesman David Calef. "Mr Panic has known Mr Carter for a long time and was active in his election campaign. Over the past few months, Mr Panic has been in contact with Mr Clinton's office. Mr Panic has been urging a balanced approach to the Yugoslav problem for a long time." And something more specific about the Carter mission? "Contacts between Mr Carter and Mr Panic are ongoing. Mr Panic was involved in preparing the Carter mission, but not in the visit itself; he was involved in a chain of events that resulted in the Carter visit."

More specifically?

"Mr Panic mediated in the preparations which led to the Carter visit to former Yugoslavia."

Panic recently opened a new antibiotics factory in the ICN Galenika system and said: "I'm not a politician, I'm a businessman." We'll probably soon find out what his business with Carter was.

Where's Christianne?

by Duska Anastasijevic

"Noooo, not maps again," the 100 strong choir of journalists sighed when, after freezing for eight hours in the Panorama hotel bar in expectation of a press conference, they saw a man with a bundle of maps hurry into the meeting hall. They were allowed into the hall after another half hour in the cold bar.

"Everyone has been very kind. The food was excellent and Mr Karadzic sang some Serb folk songs for us," former US president Jimmy Carter told reporters in explaining what had taken so long, since folk songs are a serious and lengthy discipline among the Serbs.

Instead of the customary guard of honor and sword-waving officers accorded other foreign guests, Karadzic's head of protocol (a former waiter) sent in two children to hand flowers over to Jimmy and his wife Rosalyn (Ratko Mladic did not attend the protocol. He arrived 10 minutes later with a scowl on his face). Karadzic reminded everyone of the traditional Serb-American ties and said "Serb chetniks rescued over 400 US pilots in World War II". He also recalled that the Serbs never hated Americans; on the contrary, they couldn't wait to get US scholarships.

Carter spoke of peace and human rights and added that the American public knows only one side of the story and that his visit was an opportunity for the Serb side to be heard. He also recalled the talks he had the previous day in Sarajevo, but stumbled on the names of Muslim president Alija Izetbegovic and prime minister Silajdzic, causing Mrs Carter to get upset.

While they waited, frozen and starving, for the talks to end, the pack of journalists were rocked by shouts from Sonja Karadzic (daughter of the Bosnian Serb president and head of the Pale press center). Sonja and Sonja alone, who is always easily noticed and never forgotten, issues accreditation for foreign journalists in the Bosnian Serb Republic. A large number of journalists admit that they fear Sarajevo snipers less than Sonja's verbal fire. Customarily dressed in black, Sonja donned a black suit and white blouse for this occasion. She held onto her hat and went searching for CNN reporter Christianne Amanpour, leaning over the balcony of the Panorama hotel and shouting "where's my Christianne?". Minutes later we saw her flirting with security guards, cheerfully raising her arms in surrender: "Want to search me. Come on, search me."

While Carter talked with Bosnian Serb representatives, Pale residents, split into three groups for power restrictions, celebrated St Nicholas day.

Poor people hitchhiked, while the more affluent burned gasoline they buy from Croats in nearby Kiseljak for just over one DEM per liter.

Bosnian Serb vice-president Biljana Plavsic stayed at the Olympic motel in Pale, as did most foreign journalists. She likes to walk. A day before the Carter visit we met her out on a short stroll in a thick skirt and gray Adidas shoes. "How are you, is it cold?", she asks every soldier she meets. "It's cold but we'll be OK," they answer.

Soldiers are more interested in the situation on Treskavica above Igman, where they admit to heavy casualties. "Carter, what Carter," one of them says. "He can arrange a three month ceasefire maybe, but so can the snows which are due any day now."