Running on Empty

Practically all analyses of the situation in Kosovo show depressing results. Another year has passed without much having been done, while tensions and the risk of war have not decreased. This is why it looks as if nothing new has happened in Kosovo - there are no initiatives which could pull the problem out the doldrums, nor any readiness for starting a dialogue. When we add the international community's inability to stop the war in Bosnia and opt for clear principles in resolving the Balkan crisis, then the problem of Kosovo seems to be even more hopeless. Kosovo, however, is a problem which will not submit to a long blockade and an impasse. In late 1993 there were signs and indications that the process in Kosovo would speed up, but then unexpected complications in Bosnia arose and Kosovo had to wait its turn once again. Lately, however, many important international instances have announced an end to the waiting.

The most decisive statement with regard to this was made at the European Union Council ministerial meeting, which stated that "Kosovo cannot be forgotten because of Bosnia" and that the time had come to "open this long postponed question". The UN General Assembly adopted a special resolution on Kosovo on December 23, in which Serbia and Yugoslavia are sharply condemned because of their repressive and discriminatory policy in Kosovo. The Resolution demands the abolition of discriminatory laws and measures introduced after 1989, the "setting up of truly democratic institutions in Kosovo, including a parliament and judiciary" and "respect for the will of the population of Kosovo as the best way of preventing an escalation of conflicts". New CSCE chairman Hungarian Foreign Minister Laslo Kovac gave a statement in which he speaks in a similar way about the violation of human rights in Kosovo, Vojvodina and Sandzak and the necessary measures to prevent the situation from deteriorating and a new war from erupting.

It seems that Europe and the world don't wish to be caught off balance and surprised any more, as in the case of Bosnia, and are searching for ways to apply preventive diplomacy in the remaining crisis spots in the Balkans, and Kosovo in particular. This is why pressures against Serbia are being increased, but against the Albanian leadership in Kosovo too, to start a dialogue and find a solution. Apart from earlier ideas on special status and a high degree of autonomy with elements of statehood (parliament, government, independent judiciary and cultural autonomy) as urged by world diplomacy, current diplomatic efforts and ideas are aimed at the concept of a preventive civilian protectorate for Kosovo, something long urged by Kosovo Albanian leader Ibrahim Rugova. After a recent meeting between Rugova and German Foreign Minister Klaus Kinkel in Bonn, the German Foreign Ministry issued a statement which says that the solution to the Kosovo issue must be sought through a global approach to the Balkan crisis and that "in that case it will be possible to speak of the chances of a civilian protectorate for Kosovo."

Ibrahim Rugova's recent diplomatic tour which included Albania, Switzerland, Belgium, the Netherlands, the USA and Germany helped raise some optimism among Kosovo Albanians. In an interview to the weekly "Koha", Rugova said that all of his collocutors and the top officials of the friendly countries he had visited agreed that "preventive measures must be taken in Kosovo and that preventive diplomacy was necessary in order to avoid a conflict". Rugova believes that in 1995 Kosovo will find itself on lists aimed at finding political solutions to problems, and that this will be a happy solution for Kosovo Albanians.

Compared to an optimistic Rugova, who during 1994 managed to overcome strong tendencies towards a rift in the ethnic Albanian movement in Kosovo - tendencies which could have affected his leadership, Serbia's views on Kosovo were characterized by concern and pessimism. Even though official Belgrade keeps repeating that there will be no concessions on Kosovo, it seems to lack enthusiasm when saying so. Attempts at starting a controlled dialogue with Kosovo Albanians have failed. The Serbian regime failed to create its version of Fikret Abdic in Kosovo and this is why it has no practical access to other methods in adopting a more active approach to the Kosovo issue other than intensifying police repression. This became obvious when the Serbian resistance movement in Kosovo, which holds a radical anti-Albanian political platform, was recently revived. However, this time it took a stand against Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic's regime because he hadn't fulfilled their expectations and his promises. In order to neutralize the pressure of Kosovo Serbs who are close to the nationalists and the pro-Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic opposition in Serbia, Milosevic organized a new police spectacle - the arrest and beating of some 200 ex-members of the former Kosovo police, accused of allegedly setting up the Kosovo Republic Ministry of the Interior. The action however didn't have much effect on Serb extremists who are preparing new actions for pressuring the regime, nor did the whole affair scare the ethnic Albanians.

Albanians find the creation of a new European configuration convenient. It boosts their chances of finding a political solution to their national issue. Viewed long-term and medium-term, they will probably succeed in realizing their basic national goals. However, the question of Kosovo remains a very explosive problem from the short-term aspect too. The uneasiness shown by Serbian militarist circles who are aware that time is working in favor of ethnic Albanians could lead to an escalation of hostilities and a new war. It is impossible to forecast how the world powers would behave in that case. The Americans have repeated many times that they will not allow a new war. But Bosnia's example has shown that even the most vociferous verbal condemnations and threats have been without concrete reactions. So far the West has not been prepared to embark on a military intervention. It is possible that the West will adopt this course in the case of a Serbian-Albanian war. However, most analyses show that there won't be a war. As far as the Serbs are concerned, the war is being played out in Bosnia and Croatia. World diplomacy can achieve effective pressure on the Serbs by tying the question of the Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia to the issue of Kosovo. Milosevic will be the one who will have to cut through this Gordian knot.