Checkmate on Z-4

The plan to resolve the Krajina problem was handed to Croatian President Franjo Tudjman on January 29 on behalf of the EU by French Ambassador Jean-Jaques Gaillard.

There were lots of debates and speculation on the Zagreb peace plan which was received coldly by the Croatian authorities and not at all by the Republic of Serb Krajina (RSK) authorities who refused to look at it until they got guarantees that UNPROFOR would remain in place. Belgrade didn't even want to look at it.

Although it wasn't a take-it-or-leave-it type proposal, it wasn't realistic to expect deviations from its basic elements; Peter Galbraith said those were "autonomy for the Serbs in areas where they are the majority and the territorial integrity of Croatia". For the Serbs that means they have to give up more than they ever intended to while the Croats have to agree to less than they have now.

Croatian Prime Minister Nikica Valentic told UNPROFOR representatives that the plan is "essentially unacceptable to Croatia" while Smiljko Sokol (creator of the current Croatian constitution) feels it is an unacceptable division of state sovereignty. The Krajina SDS demanded a "freeze on talks with Croatia until it changes its attitude towards the RSK" and added that "no one has the right to ask the RSK people for more sacrifices: giving up sovereignty, national dignity and statehood to become a protected minority in the ghetto of Croatia".

Zagreb is impatiently trying to get things back to where they were in 1990/91 (but without the JNA and foreign peacekeepers) which allows it a lot of maneuvering space to reintegrate Krajina peacefully or by force. Knin sets conditions by demanding UNPROFOR stay and secure its statehood and also expects a lot from Serb brethren in Bosnia. So, the Z-4 plan is check mated and Serb-Croat relations are at a draw once again.

Leonid Kerestedziyants did not hide his disappointment over the Serb refusal of the "honorable and just plan". All the mediators said they would not pressure Croatia into changing its decision on UNPROFOR since, as Galbraith put it, "it's very discouraging when a small and isolated entity rejects a document offered by the international community".

Some of the media have already drawn up scenarios of a possible Serb-Croat war; they're counting the resources, speculating on attack plans and the states that will go to war. Milan Djukic, head of the Serb National Party in Croatia, said peace can hardly be mentioned if UNPROFOR leaves. If Zagreb backs off from its decision under Serb pressure that will mean the start of long and hard negotiations. If the Blue Berets leave and talks start, that will really mean the start of the reintegration of the Krajina with no guarantees of implementing agreements.

There is another unknown element in all of this which was defined by the RS news agency SRNA in an editorial. That element is Slobodan Milosevic. His rejection of the Z-4 plan could be interpreted as support for Knin and a quiet threat to Croatia and the international community. Namely, Belgrade political circles believe that all the concessions he has made were not adequately rewarded with a lifting of the sanctions. Also, Krajina is not Bosnia which means the powerful SPS nationalist wing came to power on its back and won't give up that easily. Milosevic has to take everything into account and he could possibly return to his "patriotic" positions.

There is another speculation.

The direct US talks with the Bosnian Serbs have frozen his peace mediator position. The Z-4 group has made another cardinal error in that regard. It informed Zagreb and Knin before Belgrade, another sign of the freeze, and condemned itself. Milosevic is still trying to convince the international community that war and peace in the former Yugoslavia depend solely on him. Perhaps that's why the co-chairmen of the Conference on Former Yugoslavia came to Belgrade. If Owen and Stoltenberg manage to prove that Milosevic's mediation role has been unfrozen the bargaining and trading of territories could begin.

Lord Owen's statement is indicative (there isn't a single page of the Z-4 plan that doesn't mention UNPROFOR; meaning it should stay) as does Vladislav Jovanovic's (I have no personal opinion on the plan).